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Clot,
'under-performed'
Yes!
'last year' - I'll assume you mean 2023?
So I'll have a rough guess that 2023 invoiced rev is down c.78% compared to 2022 and down c.57% compared to 2021.
What does your RNS data say?
'overall market was massively down'
'overall market', is there one for remineraliser niche products?
The market for conventional fertilisers was difficult, but 'massively down', no, that's just an excuse.
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Niceto...
'....early June or early July, though nothing to do with figures from Harvest.'
Nothing has changed but depends on those figures + the 6,173t carry-over at R$200/t
IMO there's still a huge risk here.
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I can't recall any such shortage of fertiliser in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine (February).
Record high prices yes, but no shortage in Brasil.
I do recall Harvest raising their prices a number of times during 2022.
Big mistake that IMO, surely it was an ideal opportunity to gain market share and demonstrate there is an alternative, yet Harvest chose to...would profiteer be too strong word?
Many farmers chose to use the residual macronutrients rather than purchase expensive conventional fertilisers.
Along came 2023, falling fertiliser prices.... over-supply available and we know the rest.
Harvest's 200kt target for 2023 ended at 28kt sold?
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Not looked at this PoS for a while but just noticed VTF Mineracao Ltda have recently submitted to ANM base year Relatório Anual de Lavra (RAL) 28th February 2024.
RAL = Annual Mining Report.
Better late than never!
I suppose it could be a touch difficult to export samples with no proof of mining?
Landholder will be pleased!
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Have a look at the sat image from yesterday, it appears the demonstration farm coffee has now been completely removed.
I was thinking the partial removal was to distance the coffee from view/road, not a good look to coffee farmers? But no, could removing it all be simply cut back costs on land rental?
Hard times, though with all that ‘signalling’ going on in the recent sales/guidance RNS then could it be Brachiara will be next year’s saviour crop?
‘Signalgrass’ – great forward thinking?
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'Re 2024, a good year for coffee'
'Really, 'cut back', not the award wining coffee farm as well?'
Anyone who follows Harvest would know that the 'award winning coffee farm' is located at the Maximus mine-site.
It's a 1hectare field (coffee), it's a demonstration farm and as far as Harvest news releases has not been a subject of 'coffee trials'.
Harvest coffee trials have been performed at 'one of the Veloso Agropecuária ('Veloso') coffee plantations in Minas Gerais state....' - see RNS 23rd April 2020.
That's not the 'award wining coffee farm'.
Now considering Harvest latest RNS contains numerous statements regarding potential growth in sales to the coffee sector, then it's not wrong to question what is happening to that coffee farm?
Have a look at Sentinel sat images for 25-12-2023 vs 03-02-2024 vs 24-02-2024?
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Clot1,
There's no mention in the RNS of cutting back on trials that have already been completed. That would be silly wouldn't it.
But if you think there was, then may be you should take it up with Harvest.
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So it's the coffee sector 2024 to the rescue in the latest RNS?
'.....but signals of improvements, especially in the coffee sector, gives Board confidence....'
'.....bringing a little more predictability and to our particular advantage, coffee crops in our target region are expected to have a year of growth.'
'.....the coffee crops in our target regions are signalling for a modest growth and we are positioned to reap the benefits of an increased volume of fertilizer orders.'
Oh, wait a minute.
'.....together with a cut back in agronomic trials....'
Really, 'cut back', not the award wining coffee farm as well?
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Clot1,
Still deflecting.
You can't make a statement that refers to the research permits in Carmo do Paranaiba and then when challenged on it you refer to a post about the Fertimax mining concession.
You stated:
'All those permits were supposedly a trading threat. Now the threat is that permits are currently uneconomical to progress.'
Then you copied this from my post as you source:
'9th Feb 2024 Fertimax submitted a request to ANM for a delay to 'mining start'.
I would guess the reason for that would be 'current economic conditions', they've recently done similar on three peat concessions.'
They are very different because:
All those permits are local to Maximus.
All those permits are in Carmo do Paranaiba municipality.
All those permits are Fosfato permits.
and 100km south east of Maximus is the Fertimax concession
Fertimax concession is local to Verde minesites
Fertimax concession is in Sao Gotardo municipality.
Fertimax concession is a Potassic Rock minesite.
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Clot1,
'Now the threat is that permits are currently uneconomical to progress.'
Where on earth did you get that one from?
Was it the GUIA (Trial mining)?
FYI,
Triunfo Fertilizantes.....Ltda then later Triunfo Mineracao...Ltda started mining at Maximus prospect under a GUIA (Trial mining) for Harvest.
Oh, and Verde started with GUIA's on 3-4 tenements.
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It is clear when you add the part you chose to exclude.
The topic was not about buying Fosfato from Harvest which is what you have been trying to make out.
The first line below 'Worst case,,,,' are your words:
'Worst case it gets bought out for more than current SP...'?
Really?
There are currently 41 active research permits in Carmo do Paranaiba all researching 'Fosfato'.
Why would any company buy from Harvest?
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Clot1,
'So you were obviously claiming the permits were a threat to HMI short term sales...'
You're starting to make things up now!
Now, once the minor has communicated research 'start' the minor can at any stage submit a final research report to the ANM within the period of the research permit.
If the research report is submitted as positive the ANM review and potentially approved that report - that could take twelve months.
Once approved the minor has up to 12 months to submit application for Full Mining Licence (concession).
That then needs approval.
Ooh, and lets not forget if they have a research permit the minor can apply for a GUIA (trial mining licence) anytime!
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