Member Info for Sm66

Bacchusll

The key difference in your chosen example is.

Press speculation versus CEO has engaged with investors to buy the business outright.

I think it’s fair to say there’s a reasonable difference between press speculation and factual RNS reports.

Can we please put this to rest.

I use IG. Market data shows 68% long 32% short. Number of IG clients holding SDRY positions range 51-250. We are not talking about a sizeable short here. Also the split last weekend was 60 long 40 short so they are decreasing.

Medjed

Unlike curry’s this isn’t a rumor. Yes the price jumped on the news but from an all time low.

Dean

Happy to debate this subject and as you state only thoughts and it all helps

Cheers

If you think about it, his timing was perfect, SP at an all time low, company in the midst of restructuring due to poor performance financially. It’s cheap as chips and he can effectively steal it. It’s a global brand with a fan base, arguably not as popular as it once was but with a quality product that’s well known it’s gotta be worth more than Ted baker?

Dean 01

Not sure I’m qualified to answer that. However looking back at JD’dealings with shares in SDRY, he sold 4m shares at 1200p pocketing 48m a few years ago, he has waited until the SP was 15p to go public. Why has he waited? He’s a business man, he already owns circa 27% of the shares which somewhat destroys your second option, as why would he destroy his own holdings.

My feeling is that he thinks he can turn the business around, make it profitable again as is predicted and at some point in the future do it all again. Thereby repeatedly making a fortune.

Evolve

I suspect you aren’t short or long, however you are negative influence.

Anybody invested in SDRY recently is here to make a few quid. Because the founder is publicly putting a deal together to takeover the company.

The only speculation is at what price.

A bad year for weak reasons does not make a valuable business worthless unless it has no future.

Institutional investors have been buying the shares, declared shorts haven’t piled in, I’d speculate that the bid will be above where we are now at 37p, how far above, only JD knows but why would he publicly announce his intentions if he had no intention? If JD was selling his shares I’d be very worried but Infact he’s not. He is using other instruments to purchase Legal and General 1m shares at 42p I think.

If you are short as you claim, I’d close if I were you as the risk is real.

I’m happy with my investment as I suspect all longs are here.

Another 1% purchased!

Good to see

Starbright

Humble apologies.

The board has too many posts today.

My best guess for an offer price assuming the 12 month rule applies is 131p + 10-20%

Around 150 seems reasonable

Hopefully this helps

https://www.allenovery.com/en-gb/global/news-and-insights/publications/uk-takeoverpanel-extends-concert-party-rules-to-funds-and-their-investors#

Starbright

Whilst your statement is accurate, you’ve omitted the rule of being in concert.

And recently a former partner purchased or stated that he holds approximately 5%

Plus legal and general purchased 1% on behalf of JD.

So if JD is in concert with other parties and collectively they hold +30% he must make a cash offer and the 12 month rule applies

It’s about time the shorts started reducing, not enough to convince me yet, the reduction conveniently coincided with a rise in the SP, todays drop may suggest that Helikon has increased again.

We will find out after tomorrows close.

I’ve reduced and jumped onboard at SDRY as the opportunity for gains seems faster…….for now. Cautiously running the risk of missing out should the RNS everybody is waiting for drops or the shorts finally close their positions.

Genuinely GLALTH

Expected EBITDA £64m within 5 years.

Valuation at standard X 6 would value the company at £384m within 5 years.

For what it’s worth, my opinion is it’s best guess on a bid but looking forward is what they will have to consider and looking back will be the fuel for negotiations.

However, everything will be taken into account and anything between 100p and 200p is reasonable to expect.

I really fail to see the relevance of the short positions of IG traders. I use IG and Barclays. I’m long so I’m one of the 60%.

Surely the important factor is declared shorts over 0.5% and that’s only one at 0.79% from memory.

Someone mentioned PFC I’m also long on that one however the IG long short ratio appears more in line with declared shorts.

According to IG, Esken has zero shorts which may be true but hasn’t had a positive impact on the SP.

It’s easy to get hung up on shorts and these boards thrive on blaming them for every drop.

An alternative angle is that without them we would probably have to pay more to buy in.

SDRY IMO will be the subject of a takeover and the risk to the shorts that exist when this is announced is probably less severe than in PFC but severe non the less.

Looking forward to the next 2 weeks

GLA

You can add 1m shares to his previously disclosed shares as legal and general purchased just over 1m as per recent RNS

Https://oasiscm.com/

Oasis management

9.56% long

1.16% short

That’s a sizable long, it’s also in the range of 9.5 million shares.

Friends of JD?

Therefore if JD is using other parties to accumulate shares, they are acting in concert, , meaning he may be obliged to make a cash offer.

I’m not entirely certain of all the rules, I think the announcement on the 2nd was an intent deceleration. Whereas the 2.9 means we’ve entered an offer period which I more formal.

Also not certain of JD’s total holding as he accumulated another 1m shares through legal and general a few days ago. If he is holding over 30% he may be obliged to make a cash offer under different rules.

Outside of the takeover context, where persons acting in concert acquire 30% of a relevant company or increase their holding between 30% and 50%, the concert party may be required to make a mandatory cash offer to all other shareholders.