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A write up this morning on ITV predator interest...

@ Orchman, as someone who's passed all the Stock Exchange exams in my day, I may be able to shed some light on your question.

You'll note the trades were actually carried out 11.47am, when they achieved the 660 price. Because of their large size (£7 million each) the market participants are permitted to delay their report of the trade till after market close. This allows them to stay "hidden" for a strictly specified time period, to prevent the price moving abnormally. They can't, for example, leave it unreported for two days.

Without going into the technical details, the closing price is marked with a UT ("Uncrossing Trade") by the side. In this case, 675p.

Already a "known unknown", but here is another report.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-14124383/MARKET-REPORT-ITV-shares-surge-targeted-takeover.html?ico=mol_desktop_money-newtab&molReferrerUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailymail.co.uk%2Fmoney%2Findex.html&_gl=1*e10h4h*_ga*ODg2MTQxODUwLjE3MzI1MjkwODU.*_ga_C9F47K6NW6*MTczMjYwMDgxOC43LjAuMTczMjYwMDg0MC4zOC4wLjcxMDY5MzQ1OQ..

Agree Whitehorse. The banning of RT on day 1 was absolutely scandalous. For a war several thousand miles away, that (should have) had nothing to do with us.

So much for our 'free' country. Papers relating to the Royals locked up for 70 years, extendable and redactable. Gagging orders, banning books ("Spycatcher").

The actual pullback is 27 pence 11%. All thanks to that old man trying to screw it up for Trump

IMHO DYOR ATB GLA

Yes agreed. It will probably be offered as a carrot to encourage the Russians to the table. (Not that they will need much). From our point of view, ot's the American ublocking that's important, not the EU. Because JP Morgan are caught in the middle of the VTB Bank blockage.

In any event, the Germans and the Ukrainians are now willing to talk peace. It is all very encouraging.

It will be interesting to see how JEMA reacts tomorrow to that salesman's interview about coming to a negotiated settlement next year.

By the way, all this DYOR business marks one out as more than a bit pompous. Hardly likely any serious investor is going to base teir actions on someone making claims on the Internet.

IMHO ATB GLA

Even the Ukrainian fellow sees the writing on the wall. I ould expect things to move rapidly, especially for the RUB over the next few months. The question is, when will the Yanks remove their blocking of Russian funds, allowing for the release of JEMA Investments.

Sat in on a fascinating talk by Sir Martin Sorrell yesterday. He sees a peace deal "to the detriment of Ukraine and Europe". Worringly, his (very) high level contacts in China lead him to believe that Taiwan takeover is "non-negotiable". He says the Chinese are waiting to bring themselves up to par with Taiwan and the US in Semiconductors and AI. In the meantime, they are encircling the US with the c. 40% of the world's economy that is not US and China. (Africa and South America and most of Asia).

WILL get there, and more. But unlikely today.

300p?? Hopefully this will teach the Mummy's bedroom nerds from picking numbers out of the air and putting the evil eye on it.

Someone's done it below. 600p or above, apparently.

Basically the threat of confiscation is no longer a significant issue. Unless Biden does something stupid and does it at the American end, as a last gasp.

Almost certainly the blockage of Russian funds will be removed by Trump, leading to a tit for that in Russia.

Basically the threat of confi

Whitehorse, thank you for your excellent posts. Much appreciated. Roll on peace in our times!

“He’s seen as a god by some,” one former colleague explained. “He’s made a lot of people a lot of money.” Until last month, he had been doing so again at Vistry. Between April 2017, when he took over as chief executive, and September this year, Vistry shares had risen by almost 60 per cent.

Much of that came from his bold plan to sell homes predominantly to housing associations and institutional landlords such as Blackstone, the US private equity giant. He promised it would turbocharge profitability and allow him to return hundreds of millions of pounds to investors.

Fitzgerald is adamant that he can still fulfil his promise, but even his most ardent backers now accept that his vision isn’t foolproof.

With things not going as smoothly as they once were, some expect his dual role to come under the spotlight again. “The governance, which people looked through when this was all going well, will come into question now,” one senior industry executive said.

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Fitzgerald would seem to disagree. If anything, he thinks he needs more control to stop the problems in the southern division from being repeated elsewhere.

He has his work cut out to rebuild investors’ confidence. Although he oversaw Vistry’s promotion to the FTSE 100 this summer, two profit warnings in a few weeks mean relegation back to the FTSE 250 is a distinct possibility.

Vistry also cautioned that, due to the distraction of the troubles down south and weaker demand from housing associations and major landlords, it will build 500 fewer homes than expected in 2024. Build costs are also going up and it is reviewing its cladding bill, which it suggested could be dearer than previously predicted.

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On top of that, the ambitious target of doubling profits and returning £1 billion to shareholders, which drew in investors and made Vistry the darling of the sector, will take longer to achieve than bosses had said it would. “The [profit] target will be pushed out, but exactly when to, we need to work through,” Tim Lawlor, the chief financial officer, said.

“Multi-faceted bad news,” was how one industry insider described the update. “It will have spooked investors because it reads as cracks appearing everywhere.”

Fitzgerald tried to reassure investors that the issues were isolated to one division and were “very fixable”. He repeated his belief that partnerships remain “the right model for value growth”.

An independent review commissioned by the company over the past month found that “the pressure being felt from organisational change [was] a fundamental driver underlying the issues in the south division”.

Vistry has said that the £165 million understatement of build costs could be put down to “insufficient management capability, non-compliant commercial forecasting processes and poor divisional culture”. A number of staff are likely to leave the business in the coming weeks.

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“It appears that it was people rather than control systems which let Vistry down,” Anthony Codling, an industry analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said.

Industry insiders have pointed out that because housebuilders work with much fatter margins than contractors, which is what Vistry effectively is now, contractors are better at keeping on top of the costs. Some think Vistry’s site teams will have found the transition difficult.

Rival bosses have been sympathetic to Vistry’s plight, pointing out that unexpected cost increases are not uncommon in the sector. However, whereas traditional builders can often be bailed out by rising house prices, Vistry’s fixed-priced model means it cannot.

In addition to cutting their forecasts for this year, analysts slashed their profit estimates for 2025 and 2026. “This update is a major setback in the short term,” Clyde Lewis, an analyst at Peel Hunt, concluded.

Behind the story: Boss’s dual role in the spotlight

Vistry raised eyebrows in the City when it made Greg Fitzgerald its executive chairman as well as chief executive (Tom Howard writes). Having one person assume both roles is usually seen as a no-no among investors and flouts the UK corporate governance code.

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The move was confirmation that Fitzgerald was in total control of the business. Over 40-odd years in the business, he has built a reputati

Vistry boss offered to resign after build cost errors

Greg Fitzgerald is understood to have gone to his board as housebuilder’s underestimate of the cost of building homes in the south of England rises to £165m

Tom Howard, Property and Professional Services Correspondent

Friday November 08 2024, 4.30pm, The Times

Greg Fitzgerald, Vistry’s chief executive, emphasised that the problems were confined to the southern division and were not “symptomatic of the wider business”

Greg Fitzgerald, Vistry’s chief executive, emphasised that the problems were confined to the southern division and were not “symptomatic of the wider business”

CHRIS RADBURN FOR THE TIMES

The boss of Vistry, one of Britain’s largest housebuilders, offered his resignation after a costly error in its southern division which on Friday was revealed to be even worse than feared, knocking another 15 per cent off the share price.

Greg Fitzgerald is understood to have gone to his board in the wake of a surprising admission last month that site teams had underestimated how much it would cost to build out nine developments in the south of England by £115 million.

Vistry cautioned on Friday that a month-long investigation indicated that the true cost of the miscalculation is actually closer to £165 million. The error means this year will not be anywhere near as profitable as shareholders had hoped, while ambitious “medium-term” targets, which drew in many investors, have also been pushed back.

The board is said to have rejected Fitzgerald’s offer, according to two people with knowledge of the matter, who asked not to be named to protect relationships. A spokesman for Vistry declined to comment.

Vistry shares fell a further 135½p, or 15.5 per cent, to a one-year low of 738p, meaning they have almost halved in value in the past five weeks.

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Although it can trace its roots back to the 1800s, Vistry as it is today was formed by the merger of Bovis Homes and the housebuilding division of Galliford Try in 2020.

It still builds some houses to sell on the open market, but the bulk of its work these days is building flats and houses for “partners” such as local authorities, housing associations and institutional landlords.

At the direction of Fitzgerald, 60, who is both chief executive and executive chairman, Vistry made that pivot this time last year. In theory, partnerships offer a more stable business because the partners buy the homes in advance, giving Vistry more certainty. The switch had been working too, given that Vistry was building more houses and making more money than its traditional rivals, who had been battling against a slow housing market.

However, things began to unravel last month. As a consequence of the miscalculations in the southern division, Vistry’s adjusted pre-tax profits this year will be about £300 million. Before the first warning in October, bosses had hoped to deliver profits of £430 million

Actually, only one Director Buying big. Averaging down from a previous one above 900p.

Might be. But it is immature of Mr. Market to think the Chinese are going to unleash everything up front. They've said they'll "Do whatever it takes".

I for one, believe them.