Member Info for Slift

Jokes aside,

There is still huge risks to drilling wells.
Also production cost is not $20/barrel. At the Interim Results, it was mentioned that breakeven was $40/barrel @ 10k bopd.

4000 days production, at 14500 bopd?!
Let's go with current figure of 12k bopd @ 23% watercut and assume watercut doesn't change.

That's 14.3m bopd of WATER.

The current evian production line produces 72,000 500ml bottles/hour.

With HUR's production of water, they can produce enough water for evian's production line for approx. 65,000 hours over the 4000 days.
That's 2700 days.

HUR ENERGY? How about HUR WATER?

Sounds like a wet dream.

I really don't think bondholders will accept that.
The bondholders already own this company if HUR fails to secure new terms/funding.

Here's what MAY happen (or something similar).
AIM takeover code restricts holdings to 30%.

- Kerogen (or another investor) funds $30m+ to the FWP for shares at a discount of maybe 30% (1.7b shares at 1.75p)
- Crystal Amber (or another investor) funds $30m+ to the FWP for shares at a discount of maybe 30% (1.7b shares at 1.75p)
- Bondholders get debt for equity swap of c. $30m to extend the terms at a discount of maybe 30% (1.7b shares at 1.75p)

"another investor" could be current shareholders too (i.e. rights issue)

Kerogen will have approx. 28.5% holding
Crystal Amber will have approx. 27.2% holding
Bondholders will have approx. 24% holding

Existing shareholders will be diluted to 20% holding.
In total, 80+% dilution.

The bond is $230m.

Will bondholders extend bond (on current coupon and terms) PLUS provide $100m capital for FWP FOR an exchange of $29m in equity?

That sounds like such a bad deal lol

"maybe 20% to 30% dilution"
Let's take 30% dilution as an example here.
The current marketcap is 50m at 2.5p share price (and for the sake of this argument, let's say that there is NO discount to share price offered).
A 30% dilution will raise £21m = $29m.
Do you think $29m is enough for both the bond extension and the extra financing?

I think existing shareholders will be diluted significantly but given a lifeline.
Bondholders will benefit the most.

BurrenBoy,

Why the talk of zero?
Because Hurricane themselves are talking of zero, as below:
"It should be noted that there is a risk of dilution to existing shareholders from a possible restructuring and/or partial equitisation of the convertible bonds. Furthermore, if no agreement can be reached with the Company's stakeholders on additional investment, further development activity at Lancaster might not be possible. In such a scenario, Lancaster could continue to produce from existing wells before reaching the economic limit, the timing of which would depend on oil prices, actual production levels delivered and the level of cost savings achievable. The field may then be decommissioned, with potentially limited or no value returned to shareholders. Notwithstanding these risks, the Company will endeavour to secure the best possible outcome for all stakeholders."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HUR/operational-and-corporate-update-y7wscaelc7jfxrg.html

Jubileey,

"If Biden wins he will kill shale and end fracking in the US."
1. In a democratic country, democracy always wins. Biden has already won. Trumps' appeals to supreme court will not have much standing. Biden is 18 days from being inaugurated as the POTUS.
2. No doubt Biden will contribute significantly towards carbon neutrality and the environment/climate change. Whether that is positive or negative for oil, we'll soon find out later in the year/presidency.

"Restrictions are ending now that the US election is over and vaccines are rolling out."
1. There were hardly any restrictions in the US under Trump. Only certain states that went against Trump put restrictions in place. Biden on the other hand will recommend lockdowns and restrictions to save people.
2. Vaccines are rolling out, but won't be effective until the Spring. Gotta get through the winter first for northern hemisphere countries.

"The next 2 months will only be hard for shorters!"
1. I don't know about you, but it's going to be hard for me as I return to work :'(
2. Strangely, this also has a two month time frame for Iran's sanctions:
"The bill required the Iranian government to resume enriching uranium to 20% if sanctions on the country's oil and financial sectors were not eased in two months."
Will Biden keep the peace, or will he go to war?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-55509048
3. OPEC looking to increase supply these next two months as they try to regain market share.
4. For Tullow however: Bond refinancing/capital injection, RBL redetermination, Suriname well, Uganda FID cash, Final results/2021 outlook will all be within the next two months.

Dickbat, stop being an ageist. These days, there are many young professionals in higher roles.

And yes, that's what I said!
You should worry about your investments in HUR rather than me :)

Lol pls, Harvest Minerals is a very small % in my portfolio.
Makes little difference, but good to follow the story.

But now you should focus on your investment, rather than mine! Crucial month for HUR.

Shouldn't you all be worrying about your investments rather than me, a private investor??

I have no influence whatsoever on any board with my capital, I promise.

Wow Dickbat!
Why are you dragging me in this?!!
I honestly couldn't care if this falls to 0 or rises to 10p.
I have no position here.

But suggest you to check out Harvest Minerals #HMI to make returns on your losses! The future is organic bro.

Majority of "historical" growth will be towards the H2 of this year.

In the UK, we've got possibly the hardest two months ahead of us (winter), despite vaccines. By the end of March, majority of 65+ (those willing to have the vaccine) will be vaccinated.

In America, no doubt that Biden will place restrictions and lockdowns in the country following his inauguration.

Hope everyone stays safe, well and follow rules and restrictions for these next two hard months.
ALL IMO. GLA.

multibagger for shorters?

Possibly yellowman,

The future is organic. People should just HARVEST their time and money on other MINERALS and make back the losses from this disaster.
2021 is a new year people.

Lol DifferentAngle,

If you can't figure out how I've come up with that value then maybe you should brush up your maths and logic.
Figure it out.

"slift, Nonsense, I’ve been a bond holder myself and what you say, particularly on any potential dilution levels here shows your complete lack of understanding of the process"
Idiot. From HUR themselves:
"It should be noted that there is a risk of dilution to existing shareholders from a possible restructuring and/or partial equitisation of the convertible bonds. Furthermore, if no agreement can be reached with the Company's stakeholders on additional investment, further development activity at Lancaster might not be possible. In such a scenario, Lancaster could continue to produce from existing wells before reaching the economic limit, the timing of which would depend on oil prices, actual production levels delivered and the level of cost savings achievable. The field may then be decommissioned, with potentially limited or no value returned to shareholders. Notwithstanding these risks, the Company will endeavour to secure the best possible outcome for all stakeholders."

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HUR/operational-and-corporate-update-y7wscaelc7jfxrg.html

Goldenbadger1,

Unlike you, I really doubt CB holders will just bend over and take one for shareholders.

IMO, they would do a part debt for equity swap for an extension of the CB (results in dilution to existing shareholders).
They'd also want existing shareholders or private investors to fund the forward work programme (results in dilution to existing shareholders).

And significant dilution to shareholders (80-90+%)