Member Info for Slift

My estimate for YE net free cash is $92-95m.

Bopd,
You must really have something against KPfertil.

Tell me farmer, have you bought KPFertil for your farm? Or are your competitors really doing that well with KPFertil that you're bitter about it?

"despite the best efforts of the individual you refer to posting otherwise (blocked)"
lol

DiveCentre,

This board is full of deluded rampers.
Their posts are a better reading!

Or should it be shareholder value destruction tomorrow?

Omg you're alive.

"Slift go run alone... your inexperience in oil and gas and and utter contempt and bitterness for this company shows through I suggest you write your long winded post on the company’s you have your clever money invested in sorry short term traded on !! instead of making yourself look a bigger fool on here... if it fails which I don’t believe it will you can laugh and gloat as much as you like and if it succeeds I would take great pleasure in reminding you..but I doubt I will care I would be to busy counting my patient gained whilst you trade in and out for your 10%"

Here to "laugh and gloat".
My 10% is still looking better than your "patient gained" that you're so "busy counting".
Who's the "bigger fool" now?!

"Go run alone".

Don't believe I claimed to be a financial advisor.

Dickbat, are you always this salty?

Davstock,
Just so I can demonstrate,
What do you think the breakeven is for this year?
And what do you think forecasted production is for this year?

mattwales,

I've already answered this before some time ago to the same question(s)..
Majority of costs is provided in the presentation - CAPEX, OPEX, G&A, Decomm, etc.

2020 breakeven is $38-40/barrel. But this takes into account 60% of production hedged at $57/barrel.

2021 does include significant cost cuts, but also don't forget hedges are significantly lower and forecasted production is lower than in 2020.

onlyprofit,

Breakeven for this year (2021) is approx. $47/barrel or $45/barrel if you include Tullow's hedges, at the guidance provided by Tullow (CMD).
So Brent above $45/barrel - Tullow should be generating FCF for this year
Brent above $49/barrel - Tullow will gain significantly as not limited by hedge.

Android101,

Yup, will definitely be a credit re-rate after RBL or end of going concern assessment period (March/April).
Little threat to bond repayments following successful capital restructure, even if production drops. So re-rate will be upgrades with positive outlook.

I haven't done recent calculations, but as of 2 months ago, there was a shortfall in liquidity for the RBL. The higher oil prices seen past couple months have offset decline in production, but doubt that they improved cashflow.
Tullow also requires the $75m for Uganda FID before RBL.
If shortfall still exists, I suspect that there will be an asset sale (farmdown of exploration assets) or cash raise from investors via rights issue to meet the shortfall (or to part-fund CAPEX in Ghana for Y21).

Tullow will also have until end of April to get everything approved:
- Refinance of bonds
- Completion of farmdowns (if that's the route)
- Approval and completion of rights issue (if that's the route)
- Anything else to do with the refinance/restructure.

But all is a mystery and uncertain at the moment as Les did not reveal anything at CMD with regards to RBL/refinance.

ALL IMO. GLA.

RBL is 31st Jan.
Tullow will issue an RNS early Feb.

"Lets all hope it is this week as it should pass with ease especially with Brent post $53."
RBL doesn't work like that unfortunately.
It's based on the going concern statement:

"Cash flow forecasts have been regularly updated in light of the oil price volatility seen in the first half of 2020, caused by the COVID-19 pandemic (further discussed on page 10).
Management has applied the following oil price assumptions for the Going Concern assessment:
•Base Case: $40/bbl for 2020, $45/bbl for 2021 and $50/bbl for 2022, and
•Low Case: $30/bbl for 2020, $35/bbl for 2021 and $40/bbl for 2022.

The Low Case includes, amongst other downside assumptions, an 8% production decrease compared to the Base Case. As described on page 7, the Group benefits from its hedging policy, meaning that the impact of low oil prices in the Going Concern period is partially mitigated. Both the Base Case and the Low Case assume that the Uganda transaction will complete and that all debt is repaid in full at its contractual maturity date."

Despite Brent being $53, management are forecasting $45/barrel AVERAGE for the year on the going concern basis. The going concern assessment period ends in March.

Saudis cutting 1m barrels extra in Feb and March.

That's what you call black swan.

Agreed swingy.

Anywhere between 80-100kt is realistic and achievable with the current plant for Y21 target.

Hopefully we see stabilised cashflow/cash in bank enough to sustain HMI for Y21 with hopefully a dividend at the end of this year should sales really pick up.

"You watch too much the BBC, Channel4, CNN and read too much the guardian, the independent or the Associated Press,"
Lol..
Do you read/watch the news at all?

Update this week.

Let's smash that 50kt sales target.

GLA.

Once again OPEC are dragging these meetings.

Should just decide with a vote or rock paper scissors or something.

Apparently 500k bopd supply from OPEC is gonna have a major impact when they all sat and watched Libya start pumping in excess of 1.3m barrels.

1nvest,

If all future drills and water injection had 100% chance of success, then this company will be valued at multiple.

But unfortunately it's not the case, and there's huge risks to the drills.

MrWilks,

Did you know that water costs more than oil?
500ml Evian water bottle = 75p at Sainsburys
500ml of crude oil @ $53/barrel Brent price = 16 cents = 12p