Member Info for Slift

You're waiting an entire year to plant, grow, harvest and then nurturing the soil for one harvest.

Why not just spend 2 days to spread the product to save cost, increase yield, and make more money???

But there's benefits of increased yield, health of soil, size of carrots that will bring in much profits to every farmer.

It's in the farmers interest to take advantage of every $.
You say extra time required to spread KPFertil.. but there's plenty of time available after harvesting season for farmers to use.

Dickbat,

Yes, i'm stating that as a fact as stated in the previous RNS.
Either dilution or cease to operate.

I'm a qualified engineer, what about you?

CaptainSwag,

"it was a good rns in that cash is more than expected."
Yes, on the front of it, this looks good and seems "more than expected".
But on a yearly basis, is it really though?

Free cash as at 1st April: $129m
Sometime early in 2020, long lead items were ordered: $20m
October: $21.7m moved to restricted
So accounting for this, FREE CASH was at $87.3m in April 2020.

End of year 2020: Free cash at $106m
So FCF for 2020 from 1st April = $18.7m

For December, FCF was c. $5-8m for oil offload. The other c. $11-14m was just trades and receivables from earlier in the year that HUR have received as the year have come to a close.

Nothing has changed unfortunately and a dilution will still happen. Yes, oil price has helped, but not as much as people would think.

Excellent news!

More market opening up for KPFertil

Yup Proselenes,

Water cut is increasing, but HUR does have more headroom to lower production further with rising oil price to limit the increase whilst being cashflow positive.

@Dickbat,
The FCF from operations is about $5-8m for December on an annual basis. The other FCF is just a tie in from working capital movements over the year.

Agreed Proselenes,

Though I think it'll be about 6-7 months before 50% watercut.

One thing that's surprised me (and everyone) is the FCF in December. This is likely due to working capital movements as the year is tied off.
Nonetheless, still a positive update for an artificial increase in share price before the dilution.

PlantedBHA,

The drill will take approx. 120-130 days I read somewhere. Or that's how long HUR will be contracting a rig for.

Also, Hannam reckons that the sidetracked well would be producing in Q4.
So the drill will likely spud late Q2/early Q3 IMO.

Wouldn't be surprised if this management leaves as late as possible so that they are able to enjoy their paychecks whilst it lasts.

Botbot120268,
Are you mentally ill or something?

Remember this post?:

"Botbot120268
Posted in: HUR
Posts: 123
Price: 4.80
No Opinion

RE: Funding, Bond and Production09 Dec 2020 21:51
Slift.
I see that you are crying again.
Of course, you promised not to post anymore after you guaranteed that if HURR had a rise in price a month or so ago, that you would stop posting, but hey, it's a free world.
Of course, it is very amusing.
If you read your prediction post which started all this, and then your "this is the research" post, obviously your own prediction post wasn't using your own research.
Either way, you can post what you wish, say what you want, and predict / trash as you feel fit."

But now you're saying this?
"Now realised it is a complete punt, not for long term investing at all.
Dilution will definitely happen, and maybe, just maybe, in 5 years time, people with an average of 5p may get their money back."

This board will always be toxic with morons like you.

PRDaynes,

The problem I see is the significant decline in production, with production averaging less than 47k bopd for Q4 2020. I understand that some high OPEX production has been taken offline, but the decline is still significant in the production that's online (affecting future cashflows).
Combine this with a negative net assets (as at half year results) doesn't make it all that easy to borrow or refinance.

Having said that, like you, I have full confidence in ENQ's management based on past track record to be able to refinance the facility. And should the refinance not have any implications on Shareholders', I can see the share price doing very well in a post covid world (depending on forward strategy for ENQ from 2021 onwards).

Looking forward to the outlook and updates to come.
ALL IMO. GLA.

Hi romaron,
Thanks for your input.

" I can only read Primetime's response as any others are on filter."
Yes, it seems that it's not hard to pick out the deluded and those that have done some research.

I agree with your comment that PMO will likely jump as the RTO completes. As it stands, not many are able to value chrysoar at the moment. But at the same time, there are some investors that would want a piece of the private company that's in exceptional health even through this pandemic (IMO).

"You may be right on the refinancing of the RCF but it is unimportant."
I agree it's somewhat unimportant, but it is still required. I believe that potentially in excess of $150m would have to be refinanced. A positive result would be to both extend maturity of this facility, and to also fund CAPEX for 2021 to increase production once again to take advantage of higher oil prices to come.
At what cost i'm unsure, but very possible with a small cash raise with the increasing oil price. My initial question was regarding this, what are the likely outcomes to be expected here on the refinance (and again in peoples' opinions only, just as a discussion point).

"Our bond maturities are nearly 3 years away so your finance fears are a little exaggerated."
Yes, the bond maturities aren't until October 2023, but these maturities have a large principal with increasing interest (due to PIK). Enquest should make CAPEX investment now so that they are able to support payback of these bonds and to reduce leverage. Whilst almost 3 years away, I strongly believe that c. 50k production won't cut it to be able to pay back these bonds.
My comment wasn't meant to exaggerate fears, but to make the point that it's also something that should be considered now that the oil price is recovering.
Obviously, as it stands, we do not know what the forward strategy is since the improvement in oil price, but would be interesting to know when ENQ does update us.

ALL IMO. GLA.
Slift

Nice one Dave.

Yup, I'm the same as you. I will add if this goes sub 1.5p for whatever reason.
But seems like even sub 2p is long gone now.

I also agree with the storage/capacity expansion. It certainly provides flexibility to keep opex costs low.

One thing I'm not certain about is expansion of ROM storage.
As previously mentioned, I believe that the current site is capable of delivering 70-100kt sales in Q3/Q4. Anything achieved in Q1 and Q2 would just be a bonus.

I don't see the benefit to additional ROM storage unless we see clear signs of sales picking up.

I hope they delay this storage for 2022.

Looking forward to the update.

That's a great post.

It's true.
ENQ has yet to provide any info on debt refinance and it'll be interesting to see what ENQ's strategy is.
Hence why my post here regarding YOUR opinions on the what the LIKELY outcomes or POTENTIAL risks are.

mrc,
"You seem so certain they need to refinance? Not sure why you bothered asking opinions?"
Yes, i'm certain at current Brent levels.

Read the question.

Hello laidback,
No, I don't think so. There is a shortfall at current Brent price and there is a requirement to refinance.

"If there is no capital spend for two years, the FCF at current oil prices would pay off the Bond."
Also.. this would just be killing the production if no CAPEX spend and hence would make it difficult for Enq to pay back the bond.

@mrc,
Yes, there is cash that isn't ringfenced.
However, ENQ also needs some liquidity to operate.

I have been following Enquest for a while now, and I was of the impression that the RCF facility needs to be refinanced here (potentially at a cost to shareholders) by Q3 2021.

Even at today's oil price and the FCF expected, I do not see Enquest paying back all of the facility by maturity date. There is a shortfall here.

Furthermore, with the lack of investment this year, the production has fallen off a cliff. Significant amount of reinvestment is required to increase production once again over the coming years. This may or may not also have an impact on the 2023 bond.

I also noted that Baron had taken a position here. Does he know something we do not?

The improvement in oil price (should it be maintained) has certainly reduced the shortfall here, but offset by the production decline.
What is the likely outcome of the refinancing of RCF facility?
Appreciate all opinions.

ALL IMO. GLA.

Are you drunk?

*potential to return value

Enquest board? I rarely post there.
Lots of hype on Enquests' share price and twitter (Baron and followers).

Enquest is in a worse position than Tullow (or will be). Not even $60/barrel can save them from debt restructure (with potential dilution) in the next couple quarters. Would be interesting to see what happens.

Strange isn't it?
At the start of the pandemic crash in March 2020, the position of PMO, TLW and ENQ in returning value to shareholders:
ENQ > PMO > TLW (significant uncertainty of being a going concern)

10 Months later:
TLW > PMO >= ENQ

Though this may yet again change in the near future depending on ENQ's strategy.

ALL IMO. GLA.

Jubileey,
I personally believe that majority of your posts are reportable as being spam. This thread included.