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Once again, Petrofac's liquidity is above the covenant limit. Otherwise there would have been an RNS to indicate breach of covenant (material news).

But with the advance payment and legacy payments coming in, this company is free from risk for at least another 3 months.

Either way, it's no risk to cash flow or Opex requirements by PFC as the advance payment from the Tennet project will have been paid this month.

"I assume that the payments on the two completed projects will be immediate or 30 days NET?"

No, typically 60-day from invoice.

I'd imagine the payments will be received around May 24.

So far in Q1/24, we know that Ain Tsila and Majnoon CPF 2 has been completed.

Ain Tsila:

Value of Contract: $1b

Final payment: Approximately $80-100m

Majnoon CPF2:

Value of Contract: $370m

Final payment: $27.5m

That's a total of $107.5m - $127.5m in legacy payments to be received.

GLA.

I suppose that's one of the legacy payments to Petrofac following completion of the project.

"The Iraqi cabinet has approved what it described as a "final settlement" between the Ministry of Oil / Basra Oil Company (BOC) and Petrofac.

The settlement reduces the amount to be paid for the second central processing plant (CPF2) in the Majnoon oil field from $30 million to $27.5 million."

It's criminal that Helikon is allowed to exit 0.29% (maybe more after today) of shorts without any increase in share price.

Never did I once state a trucking operating had $60-65/barrel break even.

The figure I stated is for full development, as per latest FDP.

Seekingalpha,

Suggest you reread the article you just posted.

https://nation.africa/kenya/business/we-can-t-break-even-at-less-than-25-a-barrel-says-tullow--1169290

All I'm saying is that the share price is not going anywhere unless there is M&A activity. Kenya is not going to take off nor will FID be made this year.

Scrod,

I am not short nor have an investment here.

As you say, the assessment is mine.

All im

Scrodinger,

No, my assessment is based on the revised 120k FDP.

The problem with the asset is that it becomes more uneconomical each year that passes.

@gogadet,

Also, expect CAPEX to be around $15-20m+ this year for Kenya.

"2024 capital expenditure of c.$250 million with approximately 60% allocated to Jubilee and 25% to non-operated assets."

Wonder how the remaining 15% are split ($37.5m).

In 2021, the breakeven for Kenya development was $50-55/barrel, should FID had been made by the end of 2021.

Today, it's more like $60-65+/barrel. With increasing break even, the development of Kenya is becoming more and more uneconomical. Which is why Total and Africa Oil relinquished their stakes.

Now, Tullow having 100% stake in Kenya is simply burning Capex on trying to find a strategic partner (which TLW said will be completed in 2023 - to date nothing).

Maybe Tullow should go back to drilling in areas surrounding Turkana to find more oil, to make this development worthwhile.

Kenya is not profitable anymore. There will not be any sort of FID here in the short term, medium term or even in the long term.

No offence, but those investing here based solely on Kenya are just deluded.

Https://www.echo-news.co.uk/news/24141844.southend-airport-flights-milan-cancelled-route-taken-off-sale/

Supercharger,

Yes overtime, it will be profitable.

However currently, it's a cash burn.

That's why Carlyle and Cyrus have suggested a D4E. They are injecting £32m into the airport for OVER 70% of the business and reducing Esken stake to less than 30%.

Actual figures have yet to be released by the company, so there is hope. But very little.

Supercharger,

Unfortunately, the problem is liquidity and cash requirements for London Southend Airport. This is diminishing quickly and Esken needs to find a way to find this.

Carlyle and Cyrus just offered a funding solution at the cost of shareholders.

Esken currently has no $$ to fight billion dollar funds in court, nor do they have money for the continual operation of London Southend Airport.

So in a bit of a predicament.

With recent news, I'm sure a lot of shareholders would have exited.

Only way out of this is:

- if the funding proposal by Carlyle/Cyrus is somewhat positive for shareholders

- Takeover by a separate entity.

Time is running out.

Today, RR is up 10%.

That's close to an addition of almost £3b to the market cap.

Just imagine if only a small portion of that came to PFC.

$1b.

So we're around $100m final handover payment.

Petrofac's Ain Tsila legacy project in Algeria has been completed early part of this month.