Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, on delivering sector-leading returns for shareholders. Watch the video here.
firstly if anyone wants to reach out to me off line my FB/ skype and IG handles are i believe the same as my handle here .
my email is my first name @ my surname .com
i amy have commented before that the uNi portfolio i felt may have similar revenue but that was INCLUDING the partner deals on .sucks / .inc / . cars etx .
some of those have been sold or not included in this auction .
i haven’t studied in detail but i have a feeling the revenue of those left may be 1/8- 1/10 of mmx , no more than 1/5 , yes 10-20% .
so if he manages to sell the whole for $20 MM that would be stunningly good news for mmx valuation by inference .
somewhere between $100-$200MM uSD market cap implied for MMx is a much higher number than we have today .
possibly all under the cannacord / hargreaves hale wrapper .
Guy Feld is the Marlborough manager and also involved in cannacord and hargreave hale.
looking forwards to seeing the finals . I hope the “ delay “ in getting them out isn’t any last minute wrangles with auditors :-)
davand,
yes indeed.... Big Sams dad was a local police sergeant in Dudley way way back in the day, even before my time ;-)
yes , sort of had a flashback to the Hawthorns circa 1995 and the plaintiff chant of “ it’s all gone very quiet over there , your not singing anymore !”
no , no one from the company had reached out at all, despite me holding 4.99% now .
i did ask who was selling but was rebuffed .
i’m sure there may well be extra rules in place during the “ close “ period .
i for one will be looking for TF to buy some shares out of his own pocket once the close period is over . would be disappointing if he simply did a Toby and filled up on salary and no cost share options .
i agree with the poster who mentions this isn’t an overnite turnaround with icann notice periods etx etx , but it would be useful to have the plan of action outlined .
i think i may still be viewed as too much of a loose canon to be invited in to help with the strategy .
if so , so be it : on all fundamentals the company is substantially undervalued at the current SP , with a market cap of under $60Mm .
it should be fairly straightforward to get on a trajectory for a 50-100% uplift from here and would be impressive by the management to be able to get a 150-200% uplift within 18-24 months .
remember , we went into this in 2018 with the hope of 13p within 2 years . what we put in hasn’t changed and with AB probably outperforms expectations so straightening out the rest should still make that goal attainable , albeit 3 + years late :-)
for one , i am totally unfussed about the current SP , more so where it may be a year from now when the FY 2021s announced .
if the price stays down at these levels i will resume buying once the accounts are published .
https://domainnamewire.com/2021/03/18/new-tld-company-radix-posts-28-million-revenue-in-2020/
no seller Tr-1s, interesting ....
i managed to pick up a total of 43,700,000 shares which i believe puts me at 4.99% now .
i will leave it at that level awhile now and wait for the final results to be published and may increase my stake at that time if there is any price weakness .
good hunting all !
enjoy your weekends !
PE on nett profit isnt the driver here on exit .
who buys this will wipe out 90-100% of overhead on acquisition so nett revenue is the driver .
lower OH in the meantime just does 2 things
1) shows how easily run the business is ams
2) leaves more free nett cash to return to shareholders .
the OH is NOT much of a valuation influencer in this case
SB ,
i’m thinking 2020 closer to $16.5 M rev with higher partner payments
you may be correct in the 2021 s with the $15M nett .
the 10–12 multiple on that would be at a full price exit and the trading SP is likely to always lag that by a good 30% or more imho .
so the math on those numbers with multiple / forex / trading discount and yes could be an 8.5p end of 2021
like you all , the higher the better for me also !
real simple math :
i think the company can get sold at 10–12 times its NETT revenue , based on normalized pricing
that’s nett of COGS and partner payments .
if they can get $20M of NET revenue then your / my previous estimate may be attainable .
i think that number is closer to $10MM right now .
if TF can get that number to $20MM then more power to his elbow and in all for it .
would love to get my 4.75 to 13p ,
BB ,
it’s probably fair to say that valuations have slipped over recent years as the “hope/hype “ value of the new gtlds has been replaced with a more steady outlook showing mid -high single digit growth . if any thing in this low interest rate environment a highly profitable annuity stream has increased value but that may be more of a temporary thing . also prior we were hoping that the 2M plus registrations would all turn into proper revenue generating ones : the reality we now is a smaller “ real “ DUMS level and less hope value built into expectations .
13p may be possible but will take some doing IMHO .
just for clarity , i will recap my current thoughts and logic for buying at this price so we don’t get caught up with why others may be selling :
change of management most welcome
TF a total straight shooter
He will have a mission to rebuild share price and exit at a much higher number and i’m sure his options package that will likely be voted on at the imminent Board meeting and likely announced with the finals will reflect that .
i will support that and the guy deserves to make a few million to get the job completed .
any final remnants of questionable accounting will i suspect be dealt with in the finals but i have to say i was surprised and pleased that the trading update showed just a 3% drop in revenues and that cash at c $9M showed healthy cash flow even after the buy backs .
any balance sheet adjustments are if no consequence to the ultimate outcome here .
as mentioned underlying price increases need 6 months notice so won’t be seen til H2
the 10 year anniversary of the xxx launch isn’t until H2 also so don’t expect to see any AB windfall until then
historic ICM vendor issues in the past now
the repricing and release of the prior premium stock needs 69 days notice , hence the April launch date so will be interesting to see if that gives a bump
franks TLD auction late april also so we will then see the values and if #win or #fail
Donuts need some time to digest their big buy with Afilias
Today’s SP imputes a market cap of circa $60 M and i strongly believe the thing to be worth $95M as is with upside from there with good solid improvements and then a little premium on top for a choice exit .
depending on the forex rate as any buyer likely dealing in USD, i can see a solid 7p plus steady state and perhaps a 9-10p with a following wind .
personally i would like that a year from now as here , cap gains drops in half after a 12 month hold period
SB ,
i honestly have no clue who has sold .
will be interesting to see if there is a 4pm friday TR-1 posted :-)
i guess is a good sign that others are also buying at the price , as i said i would have taken them all .
perhaps all will be revealed soon if is one of the notifiable parties , not sure what the regs are in terms of posting the TR-1s on AIM . i know the buyer / seller has 2 days to notify the company but not sure what obligations the company has ( if any ) to post
is another one that has been submitted too should be up soon
picked up another 5 million today, further TR-1 submitted.
SB ,
if anything i hope Disher stays on : from what i understand he and Farrow know each other from before both being Canadian and in truth we just want the numbers reported on , isn’t any rocket science needed here . for a new hire isn’t probably a great gig for the resume as is clearly a company that will be sold in the next 24 months , so a lot of getting up to speed needed for what ? Disher seems very seasoned and top drawer so gets my vote to stay on for the duration to assist TF .
i haven’t tracked the total volume that went through but i would have bought them all as they went through at or under my price target , so i reassuring , i think that others are picking up decent quantities , i guess .
don’t think it will be the four II’s you mention , but we shall see , who knows they may in fact be adding .
as an aside it is actually reassuring to see that for such an illiquid stock these big trades as they did. last year go through at “ market “ and not some discount to it : bodes well i think .
if by chance TF were to buy some after the closed period ends , i think that would be an extremely positive sign . if the price doesn’t move up after the results announced I will be looking for that .
early morning typo : “ bigger “ not “ bugger “ , Freudian slip there i think :-)
i ended up with circa 34 million shares .
w
as suggested i could pick up several million more if i increased my bid price a little but decided price discipline was the best route so stuck at my bid price .
As to who is selling , not sure it really matters does it ?
Company is in a close period so wouldn’t be any II linked to management .
like i did last year people decide to sell for various reasons , not necessarily linked to anything within the company : this is generally an illiquid stock , so i am assuming , especially as my buy order sat unfilled for a while that when a would be decent sized buyer pops up , i am assuming that Finncap start doing their job and calling around bugger holders beating the bushes to see if anyone wants out .
looks like the company is sitting on my Tr-1 , perhaps to simultaneously release with the Tr-1 from a possible seller ? again just speculation . i called my fellow ex icm vendors after i had finished buying in this order and it wants any of them . Could be Hony , as their original buy was linked to TH and the chinese triangle :-) again just supposition : don’t think it matters
SB ,
yes i hope you are correct re : timing
out at 6p back in at 20 % less .
i think EOY SP a tad over 7 P would be beginning to get close to FMV and should be achievable showing market cap in USD of low $90s , with any exit and a suitable premium to that if/ when the opportunity arises .
a good AB year should throw off some excess cash but in truth i would order them to come in as one year deals rather than multi years as the renewal rate on defensives tends to be circa 95% so a good future income flow in those at a 12-15 times multiple bangs up the companies value much more than a one time discounted multi year reg which only really gives a one time , although handsome cash boost .
i.e. would sooner have lots of basic $75 regs than a one off $350 for example .