RE: So….what is supposed to be happening today??7 Aug 2025 12:34
I understand the frustration — especially in a small-cap energy name like TXP, where volatility, delayed execution, and inconsistent communication can test even the most patient investors. But assigning all the blame to Paul Bay ignores the broader context and, more importantly, the substantial value that has been created under his leadership.
Let’s be clear: the current share price is not simply a referendum on the CEO. It reflects a blend of sector-wide sentiment, the perceived overhang of financing conditions, and yes — communication missteps. But this should not overshadow the significant strategic progress TXP has made in the past few years.
Under Bay’s tenure, TXP transitioned from a high-risk explorer to a fully-fledged producer generating free cash flow of $10–12 million annually. The company made multiple discoveries at Ortoire, brought Cascadura and Coho online, and crucially — acquired the Central Block assets from Shell for $23 million. That acquisition was transformative. It now positions TXP as the largest onshore natural gas producer in Trinidad. That’s a significant milestone, and it opens up infrastructure, cash flow, and scale advantages that most small caps only dream of with the LNG pricing which will also transform the outlook.
Yes, timelines have slipped. Yes, communication can be certainly be improved. But we cannot ignore the scale of what’s been built — and what’s now being monetised. The platform is there. The assets are producing. The debt is manageable. And if the drilling program is accelerated as planned, cash flow will only increase, the wall of cash is coming....finally !
Leadership changes may boost sentiment in the short term, but in my view, the real driver of value here is cash generation and operational delivery. TXP is sitting on an enviable asset base, generating cash, and trading well below intrinsic value. That spells opportunity for me and those who look past the noise.