RE: Careful14 Apr 2025 10:51
Canaccord Genuity view
Pantheon's first test interval, of six planned, produced "no appreciable oil or gas at
surface". This is naturally a disappointing start to the test programme but the company
remains confident, following further data analysis, that the potential for success in the
shallower zones is undiminished.
Detail => not the desired start
• The Topset 1 reservoir, the deepest to be tested, was fracture stimulated and tested
for 12 days producing water at rates >1,000 bpd.
• Reinterpretation of the log data, incorporating the salinity of the produced formation
water, indicates, according to Pantheon, that the Topset 1 represents a transition zone
with low hydrocarbon saturation.
• Using this new data, Pantheon anticipates higher hydrocarbon saturations and mobile
oil in the shallower test zones.
Resources implications => a complex picture
• This first test result can be expected to reduce the pre-drill estimate of potential
resources of 609 mmbls in the Ahpun East discovery.
• However, the shallower zones, interpreted to contain hydrocarbons in Megrez-1, were
not included in that resource figure.
• Much work still needs to be done to assess the potential recoverable resource, most
importantly starting with more successful test results in the shallower reservoirs.
Next steps => a short pause before the second test
• Pantheon is in the process of securing the necessary fracking equipment for the next
test interval, the Lower Prince Creek.
• That means a short pause, perhaps a week or more probably a little longer, before
those operations commence.
Valuation, rating and target price
This test programme is a critical part of the company's operations, especially given the
amount of data acquired in the drilling phase and the time allowed for analysis before
starting the test programme. Naturally, the company hopes for, and indeed anticipates,
better in the second test.
We always thought that the results need to be assessed in their totality. Five more planned
tests are expected and once complete there will be a much better view of Ahpun East
and whether this might become the company's accelerated initial development focus.
We leave our risked NPV10 target price (at our revised and lowered LT WTI $60/bbl
assumption) unchanged at 74p and keep our Speculative BUY rating.