Member Info for Sipp10

Congratulations to AB, his team and to all long term holders who have kept the faith.

Has anyone else noticed the difference between the number of shares sold (19.5m) and the number bought

(82m) where does the difference of 62.5m come from will counterparties be having to purchase shortly?

Stumpy

Just possible extrapolation. Harbour. Went on a spending spree in Q4 2025

$3.2 bn for LLOG and $170 m for Waldorf. AB obviously thought the whole Waldorf purchase was financially indigestible for us. Could there be a side deal for Kraken with us? To my mind very possible after all we acquired their Vietnamese assets. AB and Linda. Cook are close colleagues

Kraken be patient!

The likely deal is with HBR and they complete with Waldorf towards the end of Q2 any deal with them is going to be announced after that at the end of Q2 or possibly during Q3.

Quite rightly Captain cautious is in command and rightly so.

Wishing all long term holders a happy and let us all hope a prosperous New Year.

I have not posted here for some time as I have nothing to add to the most informative here who have greater knowledge than I on the current position. The quality of the posts on this site must rank amongst the best of any share chat site for which I am grateful.

The acquisition of Waldorf by Harbour must have involved discussions between AB and Linda Cook particularly with regard to Kraken.

There has to be an understanding between the 2 of them following completion of the Waldorf dear probably in Q2 of 26.

Does AB want to put all his eggs in one basket with Kraken by acquiring their stake in Q2? Possibly not. Might he take a stake in Catcher on terms that reflect not bidding on Waldorf? Possibly.

Might we take a modest stake in their LLOG purchase to give us a small stake in the Gulf of Mexico- sorry- GULF OF AMERICA!?

Thinking laterally AB's son is just completing his tertiary education. I doubt AB would want his son to cut his teeth in Enquest as the boss's son. Possibly at Harbour?

2026, probably at the end of Q2 is likely to be the time of transformation for us. Large stakes are being built up and must begin to edge the share price up into the late teens or early twenties. Let us all hope exciting time are ahead for us all in 26.

Romaron, also look at the letters page excellent letter from Francis Brown matched by a letter from, I guess Ed Miliband's mentor Professor J Doyne Farmer director of complexity economics, Institute for New Economic Thinking at University of Oxford. He describes Ed's economic plans as "sound economics". "to ban new drilling in the North Sea and invest in clean energy is sound economics". Apparently this would save $10 trillion in global energy costs alone. No mention of how we produce the replacement when the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow. No mention of plastics etc.

He then by way of an analogy, says: " Investing in new oil and gas now is like investing in typewriters ten years into the internet revolution." This does not stand up to critical scrutiny.

Also on page 3 an interesting article about Rowan Atkinson who suggests we all hang on to our existing cars for longer he says "Electric motoring doesn't seem to be the environmental panacea it's claimed to be."

What I did not know is that Rowan Atkinson has a degree in electric and electronic engineering and a master's in control systems. Many talents indeed.

Please report back on the AGM.

Others will have noted today's tie up between BP and Harbour Energy concerning the Viking CCS.
Will they need to utilise SVT? Will they need to utilise some of our redundant 340km of pipeline?
Are there on going discussions with AB on going presently? Interesting times and will assist in establishing our green credentials.

I started Investing here in April 2019, the share price was 19p- I am into profit at 19.3p. The rights issue in May 2021 was at 19p and now net debt is at $600m. The share price is at an absurdly low level thanks to Jeremy Hunt. Some months ago I wrote to my MP and I had the response from an unknown Treasury civil servant who confirmed the EPL would be "reviewed in due course" I hope this means shortly after the 4th May. I responded by pointing out that the risk/rewards in the oil industry do not stack up when taxed at 75% and further that 2022 was lost for North Sea investment due to the EPL and unless they make a decision very soon 2023 will be lost as well. Mid October to early March is not the time for drilling work in NS. i await a reply.
Since investing here people who read my historic posts will know that my back of an envelope calculations give first dividends at end of May 2024. I stand by that. Whether this should be dividends or share buy backs depends on the price
Dividends would be madness if Enquest can buy back shares at 19p. Please buy back 20% and pay 20% larger dividends in 2025. If above 45p? dividends?

The Department for Business Energy and Industrial Production and The North Sea Transition Authority both have within them a dichotomy. On the one hand both have a responsibility for energy production and security on the other a responsibility to achieve net zero. There is an obvious conflict between these two objectives. A circle that can never be squared. It allows the politicians to argue in circles indefinitely. This is deliberate. Is Grant Shapps going to stand up to Jeremy Hunt to make it clear that Nort Sea production is in the national interest overriding net Zero? Let us hope so.
The 15th of March is crucial. A floor at $84.19 or thereabouts in the Spring Statement is crucial for all invested here. No doubt AB and Harbour are making this point to the Department and the Treasury presently.

Romaron,
We are not far apart; the way my mind is working-probably wrongly- is for HMRC to agree an average base cost of $84.19 boepd.
If at 31st December 2023 Brent averages $94.19 then the EPL would apply at 35% on the $10.00. this $10 would also be subject to Corporation Tax. If Enquest's North Sea assets achieved say 45,000 boepd at 31st December over and above Corporation tax the levy would provide an additional £24.64m to HMRC.

According to today’s Times She’ll has paid in aggregate $1.5bn EPL to the EU and HMRC but the figure toHMRC is not to be disclosed. I have suggested before that the likelihood is that any payment for the 26th May to year end is virtually impossible to calculate and without a base figure for oil which should not be subject to the levy has to be open to judicial challenge. My guess is there was a cosy confidential chat with Shell and a figure agreed and the tax paid. I think it highly likely that AB will be doing the same.
Hunt’s Sprin Statement is only 9 weeks away and I suspect that many points are being made to the Treasury presently and the point made that if oil drops below $x then oil below the floor price should not be subject to the levy at all. There was a post here a week or so ago saying the EU was adopting $84.19. Might Hunt do something similar?

The science and technology committee could have worked their conclusion out by reading previous posts. You have to follow the physics and chemistry. The first problem is that the hydrogen and oxygen bonds are very strong. It follows that it takes a lot of electrical energy to convert water back to its component atoms.
Secondly,at the same pressure as gas it has one third of the calo icicles value. A 20% mix of lpg and hydrogen only amounts to 6 2/3% of the calorific output.
Thirdly it is all but impossible to liquify. It liquifies at -253C.
The government has been advised to put off any decision until mid decade.
This leaves Enquest in a quandary. We need to improve our green credentials and hydrogen at SVT would help. A hydrogen powered power station at say Immingham would justify production. Experimental HGVs and buses would help justify production.
This country and the world needs to take baby steps with managed mitigation. Pursuing net zero when we lack the necessary physics and chemistry will be proved, in time, to have been a mistake.

Londoner7 I appreciate your post. This is the clearest extrapolation of Enquest's position into 2023 I have read.

There is nothing mor boring than paying down debt, Enquest has done just that over the last 3 years and the light at the end of the tunnel is there to be seen. UK PLC is where we were 3 years ago, and we are in for a minimum of 5 years of stagflation at best or recession at worst. No one on this board would have expected the UK government to drag us into this mess but with wft they have done just that. In all this gloom there is a chink of light for us. Shell announced yesterday it will be putting some of its North Sea assets for sale by tender shortly. Enquest has to be a potential bidder but whoever bids will do so on the basis of aggregate tax at 75% on profits. Shell can only expect tenders from any party on this basis. A very favorable situation for us. There will not be many tenderers.

If the share price remains low- and with the current state of Enquest's borrowing anything below 47p is low - then buy backs rather than dividends should be the order of the day. If the share price is where it ought to be or thereabouts then If I were AB I would be wanting to apply 1/3rd of profits to capex on existing wells, 1/3rd on exploration/purchases of existing wells eg another Golden Eagle and 1/6th on share buy backs and 1/6th on dividends

If we are at 32.75p or 32.85p at year end I win the Romaron challenge. My guess is 32.8 p. ??

Jan24 thanks for the correction, I had assumed it ran from the date of announcement not the 1st Jan next year. It helps it coincides with our financial year.
Is there any significance in your name? I when first purchasing in April 2019, with the $1.9bn debt penciled in May 2024 for 1st dividend and stupidly thought that paying down the debt would mean if the debt was reduced to say $400m then the capital value of the company would increase in mor or less a straight line from a capital base of £333m when I joined to just under £1.5bn in May 2024 using a conversion of £1 = $1.3- a share price of about a pound. Covid and Putin sent the pendulum the wrong way and back again and without wft thought an outside chance of 1st dividend November 2023. WFT puts it back to mid 2024. Does your name suggest you have always had penciled in Jan 24 for 1st dividend?

Pelle thanks for your input. I think spot on. WFT. Though at 25% from the 26th May until the 16th November. Then at 35% from the 17th November 35% for the rest of the year. January24's tax estimate I think are there or there abouts. The knee jerk reaction to the SP is massively overdone, even with the WFT we should be over 40p. JP Morgan, not Barclays are on the money.
Let's wait for the trading update due roundabout the 28th. I hope AB will give some indication as to the amount of tax payable at 25% to and including 16th November. It is a new tax and significant accounting costs will be being incurred to work out the legitimate deductions before applying the 25% levy. My hunch is that HMRC does not want this tax to get bogged down in Court proceedings and as I have mentioned before, Enquest and HMRC will likely sit down for tea followed by a boardroom dinner a figure will be agreed an assessment raised and the tax paid. This dinner will not be until well after the end of our financial year and my guess is we will not know the precise figure until the half year update in September 2023.

Romaron, spot on as usual. Two days ago, at the G20 in Bali, Rishi Sunak met with The Crown Princ and Saudi Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salaman. To reduce oil prices he requested Saudi to increase production. Today he lets his Chancellor increase the energy performance levy to 35%. 55 years ago, our sometimes drunk on telly, chancellor George (not Gordon) Brown apologised because our balance of payments deficit was £2.5m (not billion) because the uk had just taken delivery of a single jumbo jet. No politician now cares and lives with absurd trade deficits. The penny will drop one day that it is better for the UK economy (particularly for Scotland) to produce as much oil and gas in the NS and to just pay the more reasonable 40% . The more produced in the North Sea the greater the tax take.
When will the penny drop?

So over 13.5m shares traded today. Bottom has to be circa 26.5p Windfall tax at 35% far from a done deal. Hunt may well make the point that North Sea oil and gas has a base tax rate at 40% and therefore the aggregate tax is 65% and 75 % will stifle future investment. He will talk of the need for energy security and a further 10% would be a step too far.
Kraken cargo of 500,000 barrels- $50m on its way to Scapa Flow am today. Late November trading update has to be good.
Following Magnus drill- live from late September- has to be positive as bad news would already have been reported by now. If Brent remains at or above $100 then I predict 35p+ for late January. January is usually good for us shareholders. Sit back, top up, if you have the funds. Thursday is unlikely to be as bad as some think.

AIMOilking,
Spot, on my thoughts exactly.