focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Well said Smiller.
https://stockhead.com.au/resources/bulk-buys-how-iron-ore-junior-fenix-resources-sees-a-pathway-to-a-long-term-future/
DEMAND
Those with lower grades may want higher grades to blend.
What about Fortescue's low grade iron ore?
The bad news for Fortescue is that the broker believes that the discount will widen on its low grade iron ore in the coming years.
And given how much the miner is planning to spend on its decarbonisation plans, this could have consequences for its free cash flow and ultimately its dividends.
Goldman expects Fortescue's discount to the benchmark price to be 89% in 2024, 86% in 2025, and 83% in 2026 and 2027.
PRICE
FE62% regulates and fluctuates between a range through supply and demand.
https://markets.ft.com/data/commodities/tearsheet/summary?c=Iron%20ore
AUD/FE divergence
https://en.macromicro.me/charts/215/aud-iron-ore
Higher highs and higher lows in Global Iron Ore price.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PIORECRUSDM
MACRO ENVIRONMENT
Commodity prices and stagflation empirical study.
Our analysis suggests that the individual stagflationary effects of commodity prices and the dollar on non-commodity export-dependent economies have compounded each other over this period as the two variables increased in tandem. This was a break from the historical pattern, when commodity prices and dollar used to move in opposite directions, so that their individual effects on stagflation risk tended to offset each other.
https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2303f.htm
FOB, C1, AISC
Old FMG study from 2015 says 12% of their cost comes from Oil price.
https://fiig.com.au/research-and-education/fiig-research-news-item/2016/11/23/fortescue---explaining-the-various-cost-and-price-metrics
C1 $20+ in 2021.
https://www.australianresourcesandinvestment.com.au/2021/10/29/fortescue-consolidates-costs-as-iron-ore-shipments-peak/
Alwyn said we can make money above $85! I believe the current average Iron ore price fluctuates could be $100. I believe JV partner will mine the ore much cheaper than our AISC. I believe JV partners will drive a hard bargain, but the Ore will get mined and Alien Metals will be transformed from a loss making business that dilutes about £2m per annum to a revenue and cash flow generating business. I have nothing more hopeful I can say than that and I have no idea what the share price will be.
AA still in the running then?
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/bhp-proposes-39-billion-takeover-over-anglo-form-copper-mining-giant
why would a larger iron ore producer with fob costs of nearer $20, spend the $85 in our development study?,
surely they would jv and use their own cheaper contracts, or renegotiate due to economies of scale.
they surely would also not spend the semi variable and fixed costs that small operators need to spend.
i would imagine the jv partner who benefits the most from our road construction would offer the best jv terms, and we would have the most leverage over i.e. no capex funding, no road.
bhp group limited
anglo american plc
fortescue metals group limited
han**** prospecting pty limited
mineral resources limited
please form an orderly queue.
guy, rob and elizabeth are just conferring with their advisory panel and iron ore specialist consultants.
we may be in touch during the early part of next week.
agreed, 👍 need to monitor likes on linked in, x retweets etc, of neighbours, financiers and advisors.
……………………………..
o considering various longer-term financing options, including continued discussions with strategic partners regarding offtake funding, debt, and equity project funding in connection with the han**** project and the pinderi hills pgm, silver and base metals project; and
o actively exploring the potential for the sale or joint venture of non-core assets providing further funding for the company.
? appointment of technical director, mr. rob mosig, to the board as a non-executive director, who brings significant expertise in exploration, development, and strategic partnering, whilst having direct experience on the company's pgm and base metals project in the west pilbara. following rob's appointment, mr. alwyn vorster has stepped down from the board to focus on his other directorships and business commitments. alwyn will continue to assist alien metals as an advisor to the board on the han**** project development.
? the company has further strengthened its iron ore team with the appointment of an iron ore expert from global mining consulting firm csa global (now erm). csa global has extensive iron ore exploration and development expertise, including significant roles with fenix resources ltd (asx: fex), which transformed from an iron ore explorer to a producer within 18 months.
? an advisory board is to be established, consisting of technical and mining industry experts to guide the company on the various strategic options currently available to alien metals for the financing and/or development of its key assets.
? the project and technical team will continue to focus on the han**** project, progressing exploration to increase the resources and reserves as set out in the development study on (aim: 8 february 2024). the study demonstrated strong economic returns from the han**** project, as outlined below.
……………………….
hopefully news before the london event next week.
Sorry Max, I was replying to Smiller, and saw your post after I’d finished……what he said 👇
They have recently said in the last interview we are not “Miners”, so the AA offtake and funding must have been discounted at board level, and not be one of the many offers they have received and are looking at both Hanc0ck and P.Hills.
“We are not going to fund these projects going forward” we have a number of JV partner offers on the table. So AA potential takeover news presumably irrelevant.
I’m 10 and discounted AAL after Rod left and Troy took over, the deal was left on the table, but haven’t heard in mentioned in 3 videos and numerous RNS, so presumed it was a backstop to use as leverage as the great Napthman says.
Time for one of his emoji posts beginning with 👊
BHP 24% profit, verses AAL 1% profit.
Save the AAL board and G&A costs, divest problematic South Africa holdings.
As a BHP shareholder, think it makes sense for both groups of shareholders.
Https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/anglo-american-bhp-mining-operations-around-world-2024-04-25/
Looks like they want to divest Platinum and keep Copper and Iron Ore.
Hi Jarvis, on the 4 hour who bought the 27th March candle?
Have held here before, took a look in yesterday thanks to our friend the Annoying Devil, who I know from over at Alien Metals.
Yes 5x5.
Rob Mosig is more than capable of talking about Critical Minerals, would love to hear from him also.
https://wap.asianmetal.com/interview/2015/interview_robertEn.shtml
Just had coffee with him.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/980501/coffee-with-samso-caeneus-minerals-the-search-for-gold-in-the-pilbara-980501.html
Spot on Napthman,
And Alien Metals is the new Fenix.
Thanks for posting Max.
Sounds like it’s written by AI, dynamic, compelling, foresight, robust….
Hopefully such stories attract new investors.
Top billing. Top story today.
👁️ 👁️ 🥎 🎱 🎾
https://www.globalminingreview.com/
5m is a Buy
Would love it if all the bullish long term holders boycotted this bulletin board for a week, and left all the bearish degens, to their own research and conjecture.
Our BOD have had 4 months since KNAC approval waiting for mining licence to decide on next steps, let the waverers sell out, and miss the surprise RNS and subsequent explanatory and marketing video’s, updated presentations.
Those bullish can then pick up more shares on the cheap in the meantime.
If this is a 50/50 risk reward with asymmetrical upside, I’m taking this bet.
Yes, July could transform lives here.
Look at the total market cap of stablecoin market.
https://www.coingecko.com/en/categories/stablecoins