focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Relevant now….
Pease and love to the Aliens!
China iron ore imports likely at peak, demand composition to shift: Russell
By Clyde Russell
May 16, 20245:49 AM GMT
LAUNCESTON, Australia, May 16 (Reuters) - China's demand for imported iron ore has most likely peaked, but the composition of future imports are likely to shift as the world's biggest steel producer seeks to decarbonise.
China, which buys about 75% of all seaborne iron ore, imported 1.18 billion metric tons of the key steel raw material in 2023, a record high, according to customs data.
But since 2019, iron ore imports have been locked in a fairly narrow range between 1.07 billion and the 2023 peak.
The consensus of views at last week's Iron Ore Forum in Singapore, which brought together miners, traders and steel producers, was that China's demand will remain relatively flat around current levels.
This view is based on two large caveats, namely that Beijing continues with its informal policy of capping annual steel production around 1 billion tons, and that China's domestic iron ore output remains steady on a contained iron basis, with any increase in mined volumes being offset by declining grades.
Assuming those two conditions are indeed maintained, it's hard to make a case that China's demand for imported iron ore will do anything other than stagnate, albeit at a very high level.
The question then becomes how will the market dynamics shift, as for the last two decades iron ore has been driven largely by the relentless growth of China, which saw imports surge six-fold between 2004 and 2024.
The first thing to note is that while China will remain the biggest buyer of seaborne iron ore, its dominance will slip somewhat as other steel producers emerge in Asia, especially in India and Southeast Asia.
India is the fifth-biggest iron ore exporter, but as its domestic industry expands it is likely to export less, and may even turn to being a net importer in the 2030s.
Countries such as Vietnam and Thailand are also expected to boost steel production over the coming decade, and will largely rely on imported iron ore.
However, the demand drivers for iron ore are weakening, making it more likely that supply will be the key price determinant over the coming decade.
DECARBONISATION
Within that supply picture there are likely to be several factors of rising importance, namely what type of iron ore is likely to be most sought after in coming years.
Steel production accounts for about 8% of global carbon emissions, and about 16% of China's total emissions, making efforts to decarbonise the industry vital to the net-zero goals put forward by most countries and companies.
The low-hanging fruit for steel makers is to use better quality iron ore in the process, as this increases the efficiency of furnaces and also limits the need for sintering, which is the process of using heat to agglomerate iron ore fines for use in a basic oxygen furnace (BOF).
Enjoyed word “Sintering” above, Silver will be three digits, Iron Ore more r
Are any on here irresponsibly long?
Me I have a modest stake bought in 8’s and 9’s.
5x5 Ssshh, was just making moves….
Https://leic.com.au/media/leichhardt-board-head-to-eramurra
https://leic.com.au/media/leichhardt-ceo-to-speak-at-city-of-karratha-business-breakfast
Followed Alwyn from Salt back to Iron Ore. Seems to have a bit of gravitas, will keep KNAC sweet, keep on top of logistics and exploration and have advisors and advisory board strategy implementation.
Sweet.
Financing or partial JV next news then.
Looks a cool dude.
https://www.businessnews.com.au/Person/Nathan-Douglas
Yes 5x5, that was my first thought, JV maybe parked, mine ourselves with contractors back on. AA deal or other funding imminent. Sounds more senior than Lloyd Edmunds having been a CEO. Alwyn will be able to vouch for him from BCI, so think this RNS makes us more money longer term, wonder if the share price may rise a little?
Thanks Alwyn. Welcome Nathan.
Macau Mike. lay ho mar. UFO and Silver going to O’moon.
“Dor Chair”
多谢你嘅礼物
Called it, most probably visible Lithium at Andover West.
Being in Alien Metals in a commodity bull market and debt deleveraging cycle, feels like being at Blackpool pleasure beach, playing one of those old Horse racing games, with all your drunken mates on every horse. You know collectively one of you is going to win. It’s just in our as case, we have so many commodities in the race, and all of our long term shareholders should WIN. 🏆
The Mexican assets had a NAV of $768k December 2022. Held in 100% owned subsidiary Compañia Minera Estrella de Plata SA de CV (“Arian Mexico”).
Pretty sure $200k of this were Lithium projects bought by Arian Silver 2017.
The Projects
Summary information relating to the Projects is set out below:
Pozo Hondo
The Pozo Hondo project is the largest of the projects at almost 1,100 ha in size and covers one salar, the Laguna El Salado.
Columpio
The Columpio project is almost 400 ha in size, encompassing two salars, Laguna Tenango and Laguna La Virgen, approximately 24km from the town of Villa de Cos.
Abundancia
The Abundancia project is 150 ha in size and encompasses the Laguna Noria del Burro salar, approximately 40km from the town of Villa de Cos.
The location of the Projects west of the main Zacatecas – Saltil highway 54.
Arian Silver sold the Calicanto Project in 2016, which had a carrying value of US$602,000 as at 31 December 2015 for $400k to Endeavour Silver.
So one would suspect news on asset sales below NAV in Mexico at some point as Rod I believe was consulting on this and I seem to remember Alwyn or Guy hinting at pending news.
All small beer, but would reduce the $107k per annum G&A annual licence, admin, currency exposure and audit costs and $400k (say) sale proceeds would, without the current expense of a CEO and salaried board members, keep the lights on another quarter.
Talking of Mexico, this isn’t our first brush with Lithium.
https://www.alienmetals.uk/2017/04/option-agreement-to-acquire-lithium-projects/
Thanks ontarget. Owned that for a while back in 2019. See it’s got a decent discount to NAV. Tossed up the subscription rights and annual charges, spread and liquidity, verses ETF’s where you can dump 10x as much in swing and position trades, and hardly move the price, and still hold long term with no decay. I think I sold GPM at the time for Jupiter Gold and Silver fund, which had the higher Silver exposure, as much as SIL or SILJ, that apart from a couple of Silver companies like Gatos and Aya, as most Silver producers had more Gold and base metal production than Silver. Own Calibre already so nice to see GPM have a decent stake. If we ever had a circuit breaker down day and higher high breakout in VIX, I worry my broker will make me pay liquidating GPM in a hurry.
Apologies to long term KAT.L investors for hi jacking the board today.
Look forward to hearing investors gripes and constructive thoughts about our investment here.
First entry was 0.18 in GGP, and highest sale was very close to the top, all the trading in the middle I’d give myself a 4/10.
Prefer heavily beaten down speculations, having just raised with news catalysts, that the market cannot assign any value to yet, with Directors buying.
Currently prefer the liquidity and diversification and ease of research time in GDXJ, GJGB.L or SIL, SILG.L for producers, near term producers, developers and small single mine stocks..
Prospect Generators and junior explorers I used to buy them all, and average up on the discovery holes with multiple 100g/tm AU intersections. Now I’m more selective, have Alien Metals as they have all the permitting and licensing, and is just at the cusp of the FID in the Lassonde curve.
Whilst always on the look out for successful mining financing or accounting executives and geologists putting their own money in nano caps, where you can build a sizeable position so cheaply and free carry from very early on.
So many GGP investors didn’t really know the significance of what they found, and sold out when they should have been buying. Remember Stephen Beetham on here with his 200m shares targeting 13.0 exit. I got into Snowline and Hercules early as well, but was stifled by my 3% of net worth on a cost basis rule in any one share. Which is limited to 1.5% for none revenue exploration and developers, which means my money management rules means I’m hoping slow and steady wins the race, and will underperform many investors with no rules.
Best of luck here Prof.
@CJ, fair point although I’m slightly more pragmatic.
Mexico tenements were pretty much all that they owned and started with following ‘Q uni tana’ and ( now FSM running our old Silver mine ), picking up our wonderfully company making deposit from Arian Silver.
BBG transformed the company with the help of those around him, at a very challenging time for everyone involved in running real businesses, unless you’d got a Covid vaccine, peloton bike or online subscription model business.
If our investment in Alien metals does come good, I will give him as much credit as any one of the conveyer belt of insiders who have come and gone through our door.
@ 5x5 Yes owned that in the past, remember I thought gold deposit was too small, and the then new CEO had not bought shares, and had a vague recollection of MNRG and GH having had a holding. I’d got less excited about rare earths, as China seemed to have the market locked down. Will take a look. Am feeling more speculative and excited about KAT.L, as something is stirring in the background the market has no possible way of knowing what it is and assigning any value to it currently. If I 10x in their in the next couple of months, I’ll have more money to plough into UFO, or my next Silver Junior play, which I’ll name drop on SILG.L LSE page at the end of next week.
Take care all, happy investing.
Mildly harsh, but fair. BBG was running the company from 10,000 miles away during lockdowns in both countries. A 117km2 tenement takes a bit of getting your boots around. Would imagine most of the work was done on paper. Munni Munni been passed around like a Luke warm potato for a number of years, so he wasn’t the only one he may have overlooked an outcrop.
These guys are marketeers as much as geologists and promote what ever they can get traction on when there is someone bothered to listen.
Everything else ( none Fe ) was put on hold by Rod, so nothing would have happened on the Lithium front either until now.
We are where we are, languishing at £11m market cap, waiting for catalysts for our multiples………
……still waiting!
Richard, Guy, Rob and Liz……
….we’re still waiting.
The talk of Lithium is nice, but neither ERW or UFO will mine it, just raise and with the goal of eventually adding compliant resources, or getting taken out by a bigger fish.
This is what keeps me getting up a 6 every morning.
2021
Bill Brodie Good, CEO and Technical Director of Alien Metals, commented: “As we have previously mentioned, the West Pilbara is recognised as a world class mineral province with the potential to discover significant new deposits of nickel, copper, silver and PGMs. We believe the historic Elizabeth Hill silver mine, located between two major intrusive units, is one of the most prospective targets in the region for a possible volcanic massive sulphide type system, along with the PGM potential already identified in the reefs in the tenement and surrounds. While it is early days, we are extremely encouraged by these initial findings and will continue to refine the drilling programme to maximise its effectiveness and results.”
This inaugural drilling programme is designed to test some of the historic drilling undertaken over 20 years ago for quality control (QA/QC) purposes, but also and as importantly, to test the company's belief that the historical silver orebody forms part of a much larger and widespread mineralised system.
BINGO 2022
Alien metals hits out of this world Silver grades.
https://www.australianmining.com.au/alien-discovers-out-of-this-world-silver-grades/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NXb3znnrZyU
Like WULF risk reward at current valuations, in spite of its strongly held belief and thesis on HODL.
Probably more likely to be announcement on ERW other tenements, as they have only just embarked on Joint venture with us. I’m guilty of stoking the fire, as we’ve been starved of good news that surprises the market participants.
Thank you to who ever on this UFO board mentioned their investment in KAT.L. Finished my research and taken a stake, even posted an old Proactive video with Paul Johnson, who was involved with Gervaise Heddle while he watched over GGP’s 60x on their LSE board, great to see they’re involved in a project again, where the market cap is lower than the cash balance.
Looking forward to see Alien Metals next chairman in Proactive investor interviews, with a huge smug smile on their face, delivering bombshell positive news to the market.
Remembered this video from back then, as I suspect a few new investors will be arriving here in the next few days, weeks and months.
Nice personally to have got here in the 8’s and below the last Director purchase. Paul Johnson and recent shareholder Gervaise Heddle ( of GGP fame will it 60x ) have a tight relationship.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/904495/power-metal-s-paul-johnson-sees--significant-upside-potential--in-tanzania-and-botswana-projects-904495.html