focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
I agree that’s why I’ve taken the day off Napthman, I have too much invested here not to be on top of everything. I’m hoping others will join the research today, because selling out would take me days and weeks without the positive Iron Ore news around the corner.
Plus we are all allowed a wobble, I remember negativity recently in current positive posters.
Just going through all ERW RNS since 2020 now, will report back any findings.
Bennelong had a small involvement back then, may be much larger now.
Does Windfield or MJS have a stake, is this a way of passing value around to ease performance payment.
Would love to be a fly on the wall in their shared offices!
https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/ERW/02321273.pdf
Are their geo’s any better than ours?
Is RS holding in ERW greater than his holding in UFO?
If we have given 50% of Lithium away, for A$4m exploration expenditure, and it couldn’t wait 9 months for Iron Ore cash flow, does that mean we get similar deals with our family business for the other mineral rights?
When these affiliated by ownership companies share Directors and offices, it’s easy to solve one’s companies funding issue, by moving assets around, will GRE get the Nickel and Copper rights next?
What is Rob Mosig involvement, as the ERW didn’t need him to broker as Guy works with Thomas Reddicliffe at GRE. Is Rob working on JV for PGM, separately from the Silver, as this deal may have scuppered a larger miner taking a JV on the whole tenements, now the Lithium rights are JV’d.
So many more questions, now the CLN’s have taken us to the brink, and the London market got right royally shafted on the last bungled placement, our future now rests on Iron Ore News in the next few weeks.
Feel slightly deflated currently at the ambitions here, need a real banger of an Iron Ore as a pick me up, to get back to maximum bullish posting.
GLA
Thanks @PP, read and considered your argument, and taken a starter position this morning.
This is speculation at its most extreme.
Indeed. @AD
More excited to see our company profile raised, and a few new long holders getting a fantastic entry from their visit to the Australian High commission.
News comes when there’s something official to say, doubt the could hold back RNS like JV, CEO appointment, or exploration updates to coincide with a marketing initiative.
@Portfolio Power
Thank you for posting the WHI research. Reading it now.
I used to have one of these for Alien at 2.7 but have since lost it.
Do you hold much value in these broker notes?
Https://kingworldnews.com/michael-oliver-the-mania-in-the-silver-market-is-directly-in-front-of-us/
SILVER is an Eastern Bought Powder Keg Readying to Blow
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGkArVbSAPw
Hold Jupiter Gold & Silver fund also.
Dumped all my developers, that were not fully financed and permitted last year when banking crisis happened, thinking raising finance would get harder.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4613898-discovery-silver-silver-project-in-mexico-advancing-long-term-story
SILVER is an Eastern Bought Powder Keg Readying to Blow
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGkArVbSAPw
We could be six months from AIM stardom. ⭐️
Throw us a bone 🍖 guys.
What were you up to at PH ( MM and EH) ❓
https://kingworldnews.com/michael-oliver-the-mania-in-the-silver-market-is-directly-in-front-of-us/
Would have preferred to do it ourselves with offtake and funding, but JV partners like FMG may want our higher grade reserves.
https://www.fool.com.au/2024/04/26/buy-one-sell-the-other-goldmans-verdict-on-these-2-asx-200-mining-shares/
Yes Max, China plan years in advance.
They even vertical integrate.
https://www.miningweekly.com/print-version/western-range-iron-ore-project-australia-update-2024-04-26
Beautiful CJ.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PIORECRUSDM
Bothered….
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/AAL/rejection-of-bhp-proposal/16441905
Not really worried either way, it is what it is.
Alien Metals could be a marginal producer with low capex and high production cost, reasonable annual tonnage, decent mine life, with plenty of room to grow the resource. Fabulous infrastructure and great jurisdiction, in a commodity that will be in high demand for decades with build out of the words move to electrification. This means we have huge operational leverage, and will boom and bust with iron ore price, giving volatility to the share price.
OR
We JV and have done with all the worry, take our cut for all the hard work over the last 5 years (often it takes 10), all the stresses just go away, and we crack on as a revenue and cash flow generating company and develop the rest of JV our critical and battery metals portfolio.
Not trying to talk anyone into buying or holding here, as in the main what any of us say, won’t affect the success or failure of my investment. I’m only here the sentiment and community camaraderie.
Good evening one and all.
Well said Smiller.
https://stockhead.com.au/resources/bulk-buys-how-iron-ore-junior-fenix-resources-sees-a-pathway-to-a-long-term-future/
DEMAND
Those with lower grades may want higher grades to blend.
What about Fortescue's low grade iron ore?
The bad news for Fortescue is that the broker believes that the discount will widen on its low grade iron ore in the coming years.
And given how much the miner is planning to spend on its decarbonisation plans, this could have consequences for its free cash flow and ultimately its dividends.
Goldman expects Fortescue's discount to the benchmark price to be 89% in 2024, 86% in 2025, and 83% in 2026 and 2027.
PRICE
FE62% regulates and fluctuates between a range through supply and demand.
https://markets.ft.com/data/commodities/tearsheet/summary?c=Iron%20ore
AUD/FE divergence
https://en.macromicro.me/charts/215/aud-iron-ore
Higher highs and higher lows in Global Iron Ore price.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PIORECRUSDM
MACRO ENVIRONMENT
Commodity prices and stagflation empirical study.
Our analysis suggests that the individual stagflationary effects of commodity prices and the dollar on non-commodity export-dependent economies have compounded each other over this period as the two variables increased in tandem. This was a break from the historical pattern, when commodity prices and dollar used to move in opposite directions, so that their individual effects on stagflation risk tended to offset each other.
https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2303f.htm
FOB, C1, AISC
Old FMG study from 2015 says 12% of their cost comes from Oil price.
https://fiig.com.au/research-and-education/fiig-research-news-item/2016/11/23/fortescue---explaining-the-various-cost-and-price-metrics
C1 $20+ in 2021.
https://www.australianresourcesandinvestment.com.au/2021/10/29/fortescue-consolidates-costs-as-iron-ore-shipments-peak/
Alwyn said we can make money above $85! I believe the current average Iron ore price fluctuates could be $100. I believe JV partner will mine the ore much cheaper than our AISC. I believe JV partners will drive a hard bargain, but the Ore will get mined and Alien Metals will be transformed from a loss making business that dilutes about £2m per annum to a revenue and cash flow generating business. I have nothing more hopeful I can say than that and I have no idea what the share price will be.