George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
Debt went up because of a lot of purchases of equipment and not selling inventory and the worse exchange rate. This will not be repeated. Interest has increased but is only around 5% so has increased but is offset as some debt is in roubles which when translated to dollars which is now much less (not rocket science!). It is simple maths and the update start of May will confirm- no fantasy world here, just arithmetic and accountancy skills
Debt is not as big an issue as it has also reduced due to exchange rate (debt is in $) so around $2bn due to current exchange rate which also gives them increased profit and fcf. If aisc is $1350 and price stays at $1950 or above we would be debt free in 3 years! (Caveat that aisc and rouble stay same over period and production also). As stated debt if $1.5bn is not a concern and will in my view be around $1.8bn at present with inventory sell off. 2nd half is always better so would expect us to be under $1.5bn by end of year - so debt at present is no concern irrespective of what others state.
So with gold at over $1950 and aisc of around $1350 for poly forecast, coupled with 78 roubles to the dollar and some inventory to sell in Q1, as in the words of Yazz - the only way is up! With production expected to be stable at 1.7m oz. And reduced costs for consumables then I can easily see if things stay steady that Poly will significantly reduce debt and pay out a small divi this financial yearGLASH - we deserve it! This should be very positive for sp irrespective and hopefully a peace dividend to put on top
Gold up - if averages over $2000 and rouble stays weak and inventory gets sold then we should easily make over $1bn profit wait AISC expected to be same as last year - around $1350. Easy hold for me this share at the moment
Good webcast - if rouble stays weak and gold rises no reasons not to pay a dividend - with rouble at 75 to $1 and gold over 1900 we are already in the sweet spot for this year- roll on next results as looking a bright future
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/designated-recognised-stock-exchanges-section-1005-income-tax-act-2007/designated-recognised-stock-exchanges-section-1005-income-tax-act-2007-v3
It states on gov uk that ISA is fine if shares are in a recognised stock exchange and AIX is classified as fine - see attachment
Actually Q4 we produce the most gold (around 500 out of yearly 1.7m) so always a challenge to sell so much. On a positive we paid down 0.4bn debt and still have a large inventory at higher gold prices (w1 has worst production due to harder worker conditions in winter) so most likely we sell inventory at higher price now with lower production in Q1. Overall the future will is good as inventory will ensure Q1 is very good with reduced output and will be a bumper quarter compared to normal. Dividend WILL be announced come March and we have moved (if required) - gla - this will rise today
I have shares here and thought it would be more positive but it is in line with expectations. We have as a company reduced inventory- positive, don't have massive debt - positive, have reduced sales by circa 11-12% over a year after we have came out of a pandemic - expected; are going to open the DC in USA which we hope will make a massive difference - neutral; but most importantly to me we will not be going bankrupt (not near it); taking out covid years seem to still be generally still growing and like the whole retail sector took a hit this year. The one huge positive is that we are where we expected to be - met expectations and there is no BS in this update. Expect this SP to stay roughly the same to be honest as it met expectations - not overpromised like THG and there is still a future which will be impacted by the macros. There are no major risks at present which is a huge plus.
I also expect average gold price to be around $1700 but that aisc will be significantly reduced and under estimate at around $1250 to still give significant free cash flow and for the inventories to be reduced and debt to be around $2.2bn also at year end with expectation that this will reduce another $0.3 bn per quarter so if no dividend paid, debt will be significantly reduced- based on gold at $1900. Happy for debt to be reduced to under $1bn tbh and start enhanced dividends from start of next year as bond payments etc can cause issues in future and less debt better from that perspective
*** packet calls - aisc for gold is say $1350 (mid range) but would expect that to come down! We will produce 500k oz this quarter and have 200k inventory. Current price is around $1850 but let’s say $1800 average for next 2 quarters. 500k at profit of $450 gives $225m and 200k of inventory gives $360m so just shy of $600m off debt so down to $2.2bn. None of this takes into account the improved exchange rate. This is just until end of year. With 500k production in first quarter we would be under the $2bn threshold for paying dividends - and as stated previously I would expect aisc to come down. This is all based on $1800 gold but could go much higher. Looking good for divi being back mid next year!
And gold and silver well up and rouble weakening seems to be the perfect storm for Polymetal. If as stated in poly presentation that dividends could be paid once under $2bn debt then this looks very probable sooner rather than later and the update later this month should be somewhat positive. Gla
Hi Carltt - the uneducated always go for insults - no issues with me but as always you are wrong! I am definitely more British than most and we are both aware your statement is incorrect but as usual you can never admit you are wrong. Takes a bigger man to do that. Anyway hope all investors hear a great new year and hope the continued uptrend continues from the great end of year we have had - up over 20% last quarter. Never let facts get in a way of an argument- the uneducated never do!
Obviously English not your first language! I did not state great year but great ending to year - I would say last quarter when 195p up to now circa 240p when most of stock market has crashed is pretty good - why do you not? Where did down 80% relate to ‘great end of year’!!! Suppose looking negative is some peoples trait - gla
Great ending of year for Poly! Gold at 1820, silver at 24 and rouble now over 70 to the $. Can’t see anything but great figures coming out if we sell our goods (and inventory) and perhaps the return of the fabled divi soon!! Gla and happy new year
Big- blue - don’t get your last comment? Even if they did this approach the new price would still make it higher if this was a constant approach the company took. The company has stated they are getting full price for gold, have inventory they are selling and have trade routes opened up to the east. The bottom line is no matter what that increased gold price is a positive.
Average just over £1 - based on rasp and steel business can’t see how this will be under £4 if sanctions and suspensions lifted but also expect $1 a year dividend so rise in share price to £8 is likely shortly after dividends start again - DYOR
And full price paid for gold!!
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