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Just need a $150m rcf - simple structures as this: start end of 2025 with no debt (assuming pay off all debt with fcf). Assuming it takes 3 years, in 2026 (year 1) make $100m fcf which you invest in new mine and $50m from bank, year 2 - the same so have $100m debt and spent $300m on new mine and then year 3 same - mine complete and about $170m debt (not much different from now and have added interest to get to this figure) but now produce circa 400000 oz. Have a buffer of $30m or so for issues and this would be easy to get finance for but mine complete end of 2028
Could probably start dugbe in 2025 if they wished - if money was coming in as expected and fcf of $100m they would pay chunk of debt off next year and then keep steady debt and start dugbe - no need to wait 3 or 4 years as having $60m debt and making $100m fcf would be fine to start project
Garydav you must be happy now - you did state less than 10% would be an improvement so PFC is way ahead of your schedule!! Your words - and it is not the end of the day so still time to surprise but not the doom and gloom day some on here foretold!! Looking forward to the next few weeks personally here
All speculation - all we know to state the obvious is that the price will move. However even a 10% drop is still an sp in the 20s. One month ago it was around 50 sp - so if nothing has changed there is much more upside than downside but as with all shares there are risks and do be aware that your investment can be at risk so don’t gamble what you can’t afford to lose
Hi AndreyAA I think you were fine with your argument until you stated 'helps Evraz plc avoid upcoming bankruptcy' - why would you then want to buy any shares in a company that is about to go bankrupt? I think their is nothing wrong with your offer and if people wish to take $1 a share that is their call. However it is not truthful to state that the company is near bankrupt - indeed the company themselves have stated they have the money to pay the bonds and also RASP is also making a lot of money and owes them a lot of money (including dividends). I think that if you just keep factual and state - i will buy Evraz shares for $1 as I see value in them as I am a Russian and will benefit form the Russian law changes that is fine and people can make up their own mind what to do. No need to make up stuff is all i say.
I can see both sides and tbh the question I think you both have to ask is what are they worth to each entity? If you are so confident in the new law and the outcome then evraz shares would be worth easily $5 to any Russian and to the non- Russian much less as you state. Then once the company becomes an eso then more Russians would wish to buy them but not for full value of $5 shares but would still like a good profit so say $4.So why not wait until then and sell to another Russian - still make 25% instantly? I can see why you would like to buy like us all but the price is the query in my view
Novice - as 85% of the world have NO sanctions and buy Russian goods the impact of sanctions from the minority is limited. Your arguments are very weak as you stated previously growth, inflation etc. we’re key factors but in reality Russia has better figures in these area than UK who are NOT sanctioned by anyone. Following your logic we in the UK should be much more concerned as it looks like we are fooked!!!
For ease - Uk growth is expected to be 0.4%, annual inflation of 6.1% and a budget deficit of -5.1%. All worse
Russian annual inflation is around 3% at moment and they expect to have GDP growth according to the IMF of 1.5% and a budget balance according to Bloomberg of -3 or -4% (much better than uk/USA).Their foreign reserves of currency are nearly at pre invasion rates as well. I wish the UK had some of these figures
Having seen reports on Russia economy I can see that their growth this year will be higher than the UK. The UK future is like a lot of European countries not rosy either. Always need balance if you state these things.
I actually agree that liquidity on AIX at present is not great but also think this will improve once dividends are known as others will trade. Most people (including me) have no intention to sell and are in for dividend - I think 30% return annually and potentially a special dividend of 50% or more will do for the majority here and once back on LSE the liquidity and so will improve again
Having read the original copy (translated) of the new law I don’t actually see anything of concern to shareholders - first 2 paras below where it states this clearly
Article 1. Purposes and subject of regulation of this Federal Law
Adopted by the State Duma on
July 20, 2023
Approved by the Federation
Council on July 28, 2023
1. In order to protect the rights and legitimate interests of citizens of the Russian Federation and Russian legal entities, to ensure the defense of the country and the security of the state in the face of hostile and contrary to international law actions of the United States of America and foreign states and international organizations that have joined them, this Federal Law establishes restrictive exceptions for foreign holding companies when exercising their corporate rights in relation to economically significant organizations, determines the conditions and procedure for the entry of persons indirectly owning shares (stakes in the authorized capital) of economically significant organizations owned by a foreign holding company into direct ownership of such shares (stakes in the authorized capital ), and also establishes the features of acquiring a public status by economically significant organizations.
2. Restrictive exemptions established by this Federal Law are not aimed at unjustified infringement of the rights and legitimate interests of foreign holding companies, their participants (shareholders) and other persons.
So now $4.20 but with forthcoming dividends and potential special dividend and then being dual listed on LSE I see this as an easy hold. Dividends likely this calendar year which will also push up the sp. Not fools gold - real gold and just a few months waiting game to get liquidity and even higher sp
Shares are trading again - around $4.7 at present
Https://publicreg.myafsa.com/details/230840900131/
We are on AIX now as well