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Agree - at $80 we are making loads fcf and just another 12 months of this will be fantastic no matter what - even if kraken does not work perfectly. So as long as Poo stays over $70 - no worries. Patience is a virtue, I dont have it when not sure but am happy to wait here
Quick query - kosmos trading update today - I have not researched but why’s re they valued so high compared to enquest? Production similar; their debt higher and fcf much lower - can someone tell me what I am missing? Apologies as I could research more but just wanted an easier answer?
Disagree chilling as short term enquest with fcf will soon be virtually debt free (12 months) and even if ran into ground could pay substantial dividends if POO stays where it is for a few years! The question we all need to ask is the POO sustainable over the next few years and all I get is yes and it may be at even higher price! Irrespective of anything else if POO stays where it is we will get the 60p party either by dividends or sp within 3 years - I can’t see any other outcome really!
I look at the figures, the fcf now and even at lower OP and I keep coming to the same conclusion that we are becoming a cash cow! By next year there is no reason why a dividend cannot be considered and there is NO way that the so will not be significantly higher as we will have limited debt and money flowing into the coffers. Not worried about the ups and downs at the moment as the fundament are so strong - there is very small risk here but easy upside and I think next year will be the big change in sentiment as money talks
Bought some more - does not matter as they will strike black gold in one of them by the law of averages!! Patience is a virtue
Hi kamrat - thanks for the figures again and they fill me with joy! When we complete GE this will be a money maker and as others have already said perhaps a divi announced in about 9 months. However I note with the divi payout and also with production figures and Poo just staying at $70 we could reach the magical 60p within 12 months for the party (actual could be higher) but the really good news is that in most scenarios if we keep Poo prices at average $70 with Ge we are on to a sure fire winner! C’mon the eagle has landed any day soon
The market will notice when oil is struck! The good news is that to us all it does not matter that much as I would assume we are holding - just allows us to buy cheap at the moment GLA lth
As others stated $80 oil in the real world is not as high as previous (inflation erodes spending power). Hence I would actually state that a price range if $70-$90 is easily sustainable to the general public- geez we pay £1000 for a phone now which would fill most peoples car for 3-4 months! We keep stating older prices but inflation brings down the real value - the big difference now is we are more efficient at getting oil out the ground! I see prices staying around here or higher for a few months and even at these prices they are affordable in the long run.
Just bought some more - not a huge amount by my standards but enough. I like others see this as a huge derisk and hope they hit something! As I do have lots more in oilers this is more based on the likelihood of a hit! On 30 wells I would expect 5!
Alternatively- looking in reverse for 1 find - 16.4m barrels at 25 years is 656000 barrels per year at say $35 dollars profit is $20 m per year profit or 20p every year dividend!! I think 80p per share would be conservative.
It has been posted previously actually by Phoebus - Assuming Sapote is 1,300 MMB gross as mentioned previously, WTE's share is 16.4 MMB which equates to over 40p per share at $5 per barrel. The three developments so far on Stabroek have breakevens of $25-$35 as barrel, which is excellent and makes the discovery more valuable. my figures are pretty similar although I think this is actually conservative as well. 2 finds of this size equates to 80p, 3 to 120p. However with Poo at $75 at present these figures are actually underestimating and if oil rises much higher!
Let’s be honest - out of 13 we should hope to get 2 or 3 commercial and if you work out the sp based on large discoveries it would be 80-120p (being conservative). Agree one good hit is all that is needed and unlikely all to be dusters so the way I see it is that I will get a 800-1200% return if I hold for 2 years. I could get nothing but the risk- reward analysis looks very good
Hi Kraken - they made tiny profit and have hedged poorly in my view. Have issues same as all oilers but tolmount their major has play is behind schedule and they have up sea lion. yes can see a brighter future but can understand with their fcf, dip in productions and major developments behind schedule understand why it dipped.
Agree 30th sept also - and a 7% rise on the day too just to make it more interesting! And yes I did state a 7m draw on oil as well for this week (which was under actual when you add the draw and then add the draw in Cushing)
Hi simply arrogant- I mean soder - thanks for the update. A small amount of knowledge can indeed be dangerous in small minded people. Less attitude would be welcomed as no need for this. The point is it should have been finished and is behind schedule irrespective of the model and as a result we are all missing out on substantial profits. And I doubt their hedging has been great either but this should not be hedged at low prices and is a significant value once on board.
So when it costs $3.6m every day tolmount (before costs) is not running why are they not fixing it ASAP - and why not throwing everything at it? It is a much more major issue as personally this is making a huge difference to our sp and gas won’t stay this high forever!!
Actually I see it totally different - gas prices higher so oil will be used more to compensate; flights opening up as shown by US decision; massive draw tonight again in US supplies (around 7m); developed countries demand increasing and the only negative is China which I expect to be centrally supported and their growth to continue. Tapering likely to be delayed in USA and with GE about to complete I see a good run for the next few weeks. If there is also a cold winter then demand will continue to rise as will demand so oil is pretty safe. Agree slight concern on the domino impact from China but Asia get things all the time- avian flu; swine flu etc which never impact the rest of the world and this won’t either. Think we are fine for a couple of months yet GLA
Running through the fundamentals of enquest I for once have no major concerns. Once GE completes and if oil stays above $65 (yes $65) we will have massive fcf and with the last few months of higher POO the future is looking very bright! Once GE completes I don’t think we have any other concerns except working out when dividends will come and the sp re- rates!! Not worried about short term movements GLA