The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
Eric Nuttall - Senior global portfolio manager. A recession has never caused demand destruction in oil and will not now - a slow down in growth maybe. Structural demand supply imbalance caused by a decade of under investment. The largest landlord in Germany telling all its 1 million tenants that they cannot raise winter heating temperature in their apartments above 17 degrees.
https://youtu.be/G9Q0Me8VO7Y
Eric Nuttall - Senior global portfolio manager. A recession has never caused demand destruction in oil and will not now - a slow down in growth maybe. Structural demand supply imbalance caused by a decade of under investment. The largest landlord in Germany telling all its 1 million tenants that they cannot raise winter heating temperature in their apartments above 17 degrees.
https://youtu.be/G9Q0Me8VO7Y
Jan Stuart, Global Energy Strategist at Piper Sandler tells it like it is. Gasoline inventories up because output was raised in response to prices. All US gasoline retailers report demand higher or same as per-Covid. Saudis had a very weak Q2 output and the extra 100k bpd is a rounding error. The OPEC+ communique specifically states supply constraints. Biden’s SPR release has had a material impact in dampening prices but must end next month.
https://youtu.be/URdTh7frKGs
Jan Stuart, Global Energy Strategist at Piper Sandler tells it like it is. Gasoline inventories up because output was raised in response to prices. All US gasoline retailers report demand higher or same as per-CovId. Saudis had a very weak Q2 output and the extra 100k bpd is a rounding error. The OPEC+ communique specifically states supply constraints. Biden’s SPR release has had a material impact in dampening prices but must end next month.
https://youtu.be/URdTh7frKGs
On decent volume. Some people at least have woken up to the fact that North Sea oil and gas is alive and well and making money. Profit increases from most operators will dwarf the WT. I also read global equity strategists each week listing energy as one of their favourite sectors for asset allocation for the next 2 quarters.
Hi Nordell - JOG is in my portfolio
I read with some dismay at people putting 32% of more of their portfolio in a single stock. As someone who has worked in fund management that is literally the definition of insanity. Go to the casino instead - you’ll have more fun. I’ve been around long enough to know that a sure thing is very rarely a sure thing. I’m sure Jimmy has amazing knowledge and I have 8% of my portfolio in CHAR, in part based on his analysis. Sadly a lot of things can go wrong on the path to riches. The Moroccan government has a bogus tax case against Sound Energy right now (I’m also invested there). The oil and gas prices will probably stay high which is a positive. I spoke to a green investor last week who made the point that why would Europe buy from Africa and exchange one dependant supplier for another. It’s a valid point. There is diversification of supply of course but there is also an imperative for Europe to produce its own energy and not keep importing. It will take years but don’t forget Chariot under best case is looking at end of 2024 - a lot can happen in 2 years. 55% of my portfolio is in oil and gas right now but also with actual producers in the North Sea who are making cash now. CHAR still needs to get FID, funding and super majors have committed not to spend on new resources. Maybe CHAR’s biggest customers will be African. This is not a dead cert so diversify your risk. Any abuse to this post from rampers will be ignored.
Interesting piece with detail on some of the supply challenges
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/natural-gas-prices-rally-g7-230000593.html
Apologies- should read Total
Will be 2027 before extra LNG capacity comes on line. Shows the serious money targeting alternative gas to Russia right now.
https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/detail?dockey=600-202206120738BIZWIRE_USPRX____20220612_BW5037-1
Sorry guys, I copied from the CHAR board but this applies equally to us JOG investors. Prices are not falling significantly due to tight supply that will take years to come on stream due to hostile policy towards oil and gas.
I agree with this analysis that a recession is a nailed on certainty but so are high oil and gas prices. Over 40% of all US corn production is now diverted to petrol but because fertiliser costs are out of control that leads to higher Ethanol prices as well. Biden hostility to oil and gas has removed $66bn of investment in US oil and gas - that money isn’t coming back. Similar story in Europe. Looking good for GKP investors as long as this doesn’t cause a deep recession.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/video/oil-tapping-strategic-petroleum-reserves-193708326.html?contentType=VIDEO
I agree with this analysis that a recession is a nailed on certainty but so are high oil and gas prices. Over 40% of all US corn production is now diverted to petrol but because fertiliser costs are out of control that leads to higher Ethanol prices as well. Biden hostility to oil and gas has removed $66bn of investment in US oil and gas - that money isn’t coming back. Similar story in Europe. Looking good for CHAR investors as long as this doesn’t cause a deep recession.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/video/oil-tapping-strategic-petroleum-reserves-193708326.html?contentType=VIDEO
I agree with this analysis that a recession is a nailed on certainty but so are high oil and gas prices. Over 40% of all US corn production is now diverted to petrol but because fertiliser costs are out of control that leads to higher Ethanol prices as well. Biden hostility to oil and gas has removed $66bn of investment in US oil and gas - that money isn’t coming back. Similar story in Europe. Looking good for CHAR investors as long as this doesn’t cause a deep recession.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/video/oil-tapping-strategic-petroleum-reserves-193708326.html?contentType=VIDEO
The most important point is the exercise price of 230p
I’ve taken part, as an employee, in these kinds of option incentive schemes before. The employees will have an opinion that the probability of making money on a 230p strike is very high - otherwise it literally is NOT an incentive. I was really surprised (pleasantly) with how high the strike price has been set.
Jersey Oil & Gas (AIM: JOG), an independent upstream oil and gas company focused on the UK Continental Shelf ("UKCS") region of the North Sea, announces that, on 29 April 2022, it granted options over, in aggregate, 990,000 ordinary shares of 1p each in the capital of the Company ("Ordinary Shares") to directors, senior management and employees at an exercise price of 230 pence per Ordinary Share (the "Options"), being the middle market closing price on 29 April 2022, the latest practicable date prior to this announcement.
Whilst on holiday a month ago I met, by chance, with head of investor relations and corporate development a Canadian investment company specialist in mining. He was on a mining course at Falmouth university. We chatted about juniors and a couple of stocks. I wonder if you can guess the only name he mentioned as a “well funded” prospect?
SHC - not a panic statement - my holding currently valued at around £102,000. But I have investment management experience - so always good to look at risk/reward. I also work in business research around energy - so I listen to senior people who manage gas portfolios and those who are deciding how much money and in which Green Hydrogen and Ammonia projects to invest. We also talk to folks making huge investments in solar and wind. I’m the first to agree that oil and gas will be profitable for years to come but don’t assume that the Chinese and Western economies will just take higher prices without reacting.
A few other downside risks to consider;
1. China boosts domestic coal, oil and gas production to decrease imports and soften oil and gas prices. Linked to this is the record Chinese investment in solar and wind in 2021 and aggressive expansion into nuclear. https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-coal-gas-boom-may-021810143.html
2. High gas prices accelerate investment and production of green hydrogen across Europe - Chariot has a stake in this but much bigger players come on stream first ultimately reducing prices of hydrogen and traditional gas. Linked to this would acceleration of gas alternatives in terms of domestic heating eg air source heat pumps.
3. Recession depresses domestic and I industrial demand for gas.
4. Global production of gas increases in short term incentivised by higher prices.
5. European demand is actually falling in the medium term despite short increase in prices according to IEA.
https://www.naturalgasintel.com/iea-expects-global-natural-gas-demand-to-drop-on-ukraine-war-market-disruptions/
Fun facts, kids. Netflix are set to spend around $17bn on content in 2022 with new global spend on all new mining exploration in 2022 set to total only $20bn. Glencore turnover $200bn pa. Can you see the problem. As the outgoing CEO of Glencore noted - we’ve had a decade of underinvestment in mining. Interestingly of that $20bn 60% going into Gold and only 10% earmarked for Copper.