Member Info for Simon_Said

Yuyus it says that already on the RNS, 2 additional weeks completion due to the unexpectedly high O&G finds.

I am very happy to have been wrong! Even S&S didn't expect numbers this high, absolutely stunning result. More oil than expected and a commercial gas resource that was completely unexpected. Could not have gone better.

Speaking of GRPR, H1 2018 costs included some for GDPR related training and changes. Again all in the RNS. Separately, I have been corresponding with Bango's investor line and learned another thing. Another reason behind the lower rate of EUS to gross profit (despite larger gross profit number overall) is the higher proportion of physical goods being sold. Physical goods are more expensive so Bango cannot use the normal 1-2% fee on DCB transaction. They have to charge a lower fee, but of course this still results in a larger overall fee amount than digital content as the transaction amount is so much higher. It appears the notion that the Google Play migrations were the subject of reduced fees was a red herring. It was in fact a large MNO's deal being restructured (to lower fees but more data exposure) and a higher proportion of physical goods sales. Both of these ultimately lead to higher EUS and higher profit. Even if the profit relative to revenue isn't as high as it once was, the overall profit number goes up and up, and both of those reasons above are ones that are ultimately value accretive (the MNO move expected to be profitable next year). Finally, I also confirmed with them that they have £32m of prior year losses to set against maiden profits. This means the first £32m profit they make will be tax free, which will really turbocharge early profits. As always I strongly encourage investors to contact Bango directly as I always learn so much when I do. They are remarkable communicative and very friendly. This is a company in voracious growth mode and moving astonishingly quickly.

Further to my previous comment about margin, it actually appears the reduction is due to a single large contract. The detail of what happened was deep in the RNS under CFO comment:

'Bango is focused on partnering with its MNO customers to drive substantial revenue from data monetization and encourage huge growth in total EUS. At the beginning of 2018 Bango renegotiated its contract with a large MNO to reduce the payment processing fee but increase the opportunity for data monetization revenues. The short-term impact of this change was a £0.5m payment revenue reduction in 1h2018 and an anticipated revenue reduction of approximately £0.2m in 2h2018. Payment revenues are expected to be higher in 2019, and in addition there will be a significant contribution from the data revenues that are enabled by this contract change'

This has 2 interesting implications. Firstly, the new Google Play migrations may in fact be closer to the regular 1-2% margin than the 0.5% being discussed. Secondly it shows some of the reasoning behind this kind of use of margin flex. It appears Bango are willing to reduce payment fees for increased data opportunities, presumably around data sharing from the MNO for mutual benefit. Audiens is able to anonymise and repackage data insights to sell as marketing insight products (hugely lucrative with negligible cost), which is why this data is so valuable.

iWantThatOne, I have been looking at these migrations too, and I agree that the margin for Google Play migrations seems to be around the 0.5% region (as far as I can tell the 'regular' Bango deals are around 1.7-1.8%).

Seems quite logical of them to use margin as an incentivising tool to draw in these behemoth Google Play deals. Say what you like about margin but the end result is more profit on the bottom line! If they really do draw in $1-4bn in new EUS on these deals, a half percent is a great margin.

And that's excluding the other deals they're likely to do over time, given Bango just announced more territorial expansion and focus and new hires. As I understand it the lower margins offered for these Google Play routes will not extend to general business.

This is a company exploding with new business right now as the constant stream of new role vacancies on their website attests.

Yep seen that too. That Benchmark Minerals report is doing the rounds now and starting to restore some confidence.

I suppose some will also be taking places here for the revised PFS and for the Czech parliament getting going again. I have been increasing my holding in anticipation of these too.

Lol luckyman I think you need to read our comments again!

Luckyman with respect that BOPD target is way too high. Everyone here knows I'm massively positive on RBD but it doesn't help anybody to have unrealistic expectations that will inevitably be disappointed. Circa 100 BOPD would be an excellent result for VG-3. Too many armchair AIM oil experts on twitter expect 500BOPD from every well nowadays, when the reality is most oil wells don't do anything like that. The way to assess how good a well is really comes down to overall well economics. Cost of drilling and operating it, flow and depletion rates are all vital. In the case of VG-3 it was cheap to drill, is shallow and cheap to operate, and crucially wells in that region have extremely favourable decline rates. This means it'll produce a low but consistent number of barrels over a long period. Many of the high BOPD figures other companies put out for their expensive deep wells are only achieved for a few weeks/months and suffer deep declines. VG-3, like the other Californian wells Reabold is involved in, offers excellent overall well economics. But let's be clear that it's unlikely to exceed 100 BOPD and may be less, but that's not the same as saying it won't be hugely profitable, which it definitely will be.

Tiger, that equation of 'if you believe Sonora will be built, these shares are cheap' is too simplistic. It works for you because you believe a buyout is likely, and I agree this is a distinct possibility. However the current market scepticism (and reason I and many others are on the sidelines) is that if Bacanora do go ahead and build out Sonora, it can't be 'at any cost'. There is a level of dilution that would be unacceptable to investors. That said, Secker obviously agrees and has shelved plans for now it would appear. I share the frustration of many here on the mixed messaging, but I also think it's fair for a CEO to change tack based on circumstances - just say so!

Secker has mentioned buyouts a few times and at the right price, that would be a great ending for investors here. Conversely buyers won't want to overpay and Secker won't sell for peanuts. So could be a tricky negotiation until this little spook in the lithium market corrects. The Benchmark Minerals article posted below strongly suggests that it will with very compelling reasoning, and very similar reasoning to Joe Lowry in his recent article writing up his travels to China.

Must object to the comments on Cinovec. Using the old PFS isn't valid now, and a revised one is due any day now. The economics of Cinovec are highly compelling and huge progress has been made on front-end engineering and flowsheet development since the PFS.

Sonora and Cinovec are both fascinating not least because they are both strategically-positioned unconventional deposits, and companies run by bold CEO's making inroads toward in-house processing and high quality lithium end products, which are the main USP they have.

'Posted on stockopedia by a user who goes by as DavidJHill, in response to someone shorting BGO

"Bango (LON:BGO)

I'd be wary of shorts on this - the story is very much coming true and the next 6 months could be harsh to short positions.

A few points to note here

1) On track for a year end £592m EUS. This equates to a run rate starting next financial year at £900m. That's almost 4* the reported numbers for this Half.

2) Pipeline is £4bn but what is misunderstood is that this is nearest to arrival pipeline : what that really means is that the deals are in-principle approved by clients with technological DD complete. Ie very high chance of success. These should start coming through shortly, so you could see a series of announcements up to £1bn of EUS. That's material & would give a big uplift

3) The business is profitable but they bought a data monetisation business last year, which eat into this years profits. However, that business is also expected to reach profitability in the next 12 months I believe and could ramp up profits very considerably assuming clients using the platform want the data analysis to go with it. You can bet many will, so seems like a good cross sales fit to me and worth investing in.

What's interesting for me is that ignoring any future profitability from the data business we have a PE of 19 for next year according to broker notes on Research Tree this morning with net cash position of circa £12m. That seems very light. I'd expect a business with these attributes to get taken out at multiples of 30+ and so I do also wonder if they are becoming vulnerable to a take out here.

All in all I can see a potential 12-18 month doubling of price, but more importantly from a short position perspective, quite a few near term potential catalysts for jumps in share price. Downside on the other hand looks relatively modest given valuation metrics/peer comparisons of say 30%.

Irrespective of whether you think the stock is a buy or not the risk/reward looks wrong to me for a short position at 1:3." '

https://audioboom.com/posts/7011657-reabold-resources-rbd-phoenox-global-mining-pgm-emmerson-eml-bigdish-dish-kibo-energy-kibo

Got to be a good sign that so many people are accessing this that it knocked over their web server!

Hi Miker,

The server is down, but I have a copy and have put it here for you:

https://we.tl/t-HHIfygzdSE

Getting the print edition out there should provide some support next week. Really very low price given the amount in the pipeline right now. That article has gotten me excited for upcoming news on these Google Play migrations.

Also the 12 month acceleration in monetising the data business that we learned about today was well overdue. That is a clear financial justification for the placing with IMO should have been spelled out in such clear terms sooner. Anyway glad to see it there. Data monetisation is a very juicy carrot to catch, because it is extremely high margin, and has a knock-on effect of increasing EUS which means more profit on Bango's scrape from that too.

'Importantly, finance director Rachel Elias-Jones confirmed that end-user spend (EUS) processed through Bango’s payment platform, and from which Bango takes a cut, is on course to achieve house broker Cenkos Securities' target of £592m for the full year, up from £220m in the first half of 2018, and £271m for the whole of 2017. This implies an exit annualised run rate in excess of £900m. This part of the business is already profitable, and is set to become even more so in the coming months because chief executive Ray Anderson says that Bango’s “nearest to arrival pipeline of EUS is worth $4bn [most contracts are in the range between $100m and $400m (£303m), and a couple are over $1bn] and has been in principle approved by clients internally with technical due diligence complete.” Expect newsflow from the company on some transformational contracts in the coming months.'

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/comment/2018/09/18/bango-s-4bn-contract-pipeline/

Gratefully brought over from BCN board. I really feel a significant amount more clued-up after reading this! Excellent stuff for those following the wider lithium industry (and important reading for EMH as they work out the process flow sheet and prioritise different end products):

http://www.benchmarkminerals.com/chinas-lithium-price-decline-is-not-the-full-picture-to-an-industry-surging/

Bit off-topic but I reject that - my Dyson Animal V6 is absolutely stupendous, and the name even sounds like a car!

Strip away the topline growth? Lol not the best strategy in analysing the implication of results to project forward growth.

Just been looking through the new appointments too. Really does seem the company is intensely gearing up for international expansion. Ray Anderson evidently has significant global ambitions for Bango.

Real shame they're doing it at 5pm. I haven't missed a Reabold contact evening in some time, but can't make this one work.