Member Info for Simms45

Given the author is somewhat indirectly connected to JM and i had never heard this idea of wrapping up at AGM it must have come from somewhere on the grapevine. Tax will be limited given investors have sunk in more than £60m to get to this place. Seingred as you always seem to be doing so well investing let us mere mortals in on a few of your investment wonder tips for next month lol :)

Nice comment in article speculating if deal will be announced on the 28th June at AGM. Would be great timing and bring this all to a close

When the dust settles i suspect we have been talking to only one real buyer all this time but external factors have been delaying the due diligence. Land ownership, Ortega sign off etc etc. I just hope we close this end of June.

We are one month into early works, just one more to go. For me its maybe coincidence that the 2 month mark coincides with the AGM in Ethiopia. Might we be signing end of July as that would tie into August break and September to close so ready for October. Could be now into the last month before real news that will re-rate Kefi proper. Hold onto your hats!

I think before showing their face they want to see the Logik settlement in the bank but if the company was worth £100m i am sure we might accept their salaries but when the whole company is worth just under £3m it is hard to stomach the managements mismanagement being rewarded. We now have over £90m of accumulated losses on the books. This alone is worth £16m in corporation tax offsetting to someone. All i am saying is we are not worth £3m. The breakup value is £20m+ after you sell off the Eqtec shell and sell off all stakes in projects. This is the bottom line and the valuation today is simply a result of the wrong investors offloading their shares for any reason, not connected to the value of the company.

Paying down debts as we generate income is the way i want Eqtec to operate for a period of time. For too long DP ran up debts and then of course could not pay back so he was forced into a corner to pay huge fees and give away warrants and cheap shares. Ultimately lenders converted some of the debt and dumped large numbers of shares on the market. The new arrangement of debt ensuring as money comes in we pay down debt fixes that never ending problem we suffered from before. I would like to see Eqtec also buy back shares as if we can place then for 1.4p and then but then back for less then that is smart. We are achieving gross margins of up to 30% so this is promising on around 200k-250k euros a month service turnover so we must be close to breakeven. The kicker will be the 15m euros equipment sale in 2nd half of 2024 where margins are 15-20% so we should see a profit i suspect just from the 2-3m margin on the equipment in our next accounts. This is really just the start. However there does seem to be the overhang but when all those shares are gone we will move quickly.

We just need to clear the venture debt death spiral as £3m market cap from £250m just 3 years ago is a little bit of an overshoot when you consider that we have several projects operating, in development and contracted going forward. Idex is the biggie as they have many more projects that will spinout from this and Northfork was the first of 16 projects in California. There is half a dozen projects in differing states in Europe and Italy, as far as we know is operating well given a bank refinanced the project onto long term secured debt. Eqtec have always said they have a huge pipeline and i do not doubt it. The big question is why DP has over the years only completed placings with parties who have immediately sold? The first thing a CEO looks for is long-term investors to enable a company to grow its market cap overtime naturally and not lead us to a valuation that is about the same as semi in London and where we have at least £30m in net assets, considerably more once Northfork is on stream and our shareholding returned. at the sae time pis have a potentially once in a lifetime opportunity to probably hoover up 5-10% of the company that might one day be with 100x from todays valuation. I do not see £300m being even a high valuation for Eqtec once we move into profitability. I am just wondering if the next RNS will be DP and JVL filling their boots with freebie shares or will we get Idex update and £2m settlement from Logik, almost as much as our current market cap. I am not sure i have ever come across a more undervalued company when it appears apart from the DP discount that the company is not about to be in rude good health!

Exactly right. We are awaiting deal closure as any material change the company would need to announce to the market., which of course they have not. Its now a waiting game and hopefully price has been nudging up all these months to make the wait worth it.

Great article. Somebody has been talking to MC and like the sound of this :

“ Life-of-mine earnings (EBITDA) would be $1.36billion (based on an all-in cost of $815 an ounce), according to the company’s 2021 preliminary economic assessment.

On that basis, the payback would be a mere seven months, while the NPV is put at just over $600million, giving an IRR of 101 per cent.

All things being equal, a sale could be struck in a matter of months, which means Condor is on the brink of a significant inflexion point.

Yet, the current share price, stagnant over the past 12 months, does not reflect even the base case valuation for La India.”

£2m sterling is due anyday from Logik settlement. We probably have to munch through some of the £850k placing and not sure how much of it will be offloaded. Why DP did that is probably one of the most poorly considered placings i can imagine, especially if the buyer is not planning to stay for long haul. I think he peaked finding a buyer for some shares who sold in 2 weeks. Anyway its almost free money if Logik cash comes in and Northfork goes live in a month as apparently its in final testing. Hopefully Northfork will then come out of chapter 11 and we can put $10m back into our net assets that got written down to 0. Just hope the CFO can keep a short lead on DP.

Harry not content with being the first cab off the rank in mining wants to also be a first mover in the Ethiopian stock exchange. If we can secure the finance by October and Kefi is riding above £100m market cap then Harry would be well positioned to do a placing in Ethiopia as part of the ESX launch in November. Given the clamour of local people to be part of this i suspect this would lead to a very healthy premium for Kerfi going into 2025. I suspect if Kefi confirms this then a lot of Ethiopian buyers will get in early in London so would make sense to green light this on or before we close the finance. Starting to look very promising but its not done until we get the cash in the bank.

Realistically Eqtec should be at a bare minimum of £25 market cap subject to IDEX cash appearing, that is technically contracted to do so, and update on our 25% stake in Northfork. Of course it might take some time as the 99.8% fall from £250m took a full 3 years to perfect. I would hope we could see £25m within the year and that £250m sometime in 2026. That would be around 100x from today but if the future numbers actually deliver and DP can be kept from relapsing towards quick highs of crack venture debt funding we stand a chance. I am wondering how much of they £850k at 1.4p we might come up against but i sense pis will pile in once real cash starts to pile up into Eqtec later this year.

Boots are being filled today so hopefully the last time before completion on the sale of La India or whatever else might be cooked up!

£2m logik settlement is due by end of June but could happen any day really. As long as DP does not then simply blow it all on something and CFO keeps a tight reign on finances we should be clear of any placings for 6-12 months and if Idex deliver the 12-15m euros for equipment sale then we should have rude cashflow for a period of time. Could be the major changes needed to reboot Eqtec this year and Ardens forecasts, so disastrously wrong, cluld be right from 2025.

Still 2% changed hands today so far so sooner shares of placing go back to pis the better. My feeling is the secured lending was key as their due diligence would have been considerable to ensure company would be able pay back the loan in 4 years time. There is a chance PIs can recover their horrendous losses from the peak at these levels as surely with time £25-£50m is still a crazy low market cap. Investors have injected at least £50m and we have patents and proven tech and a partner list to die for. What we dont have is a ceo playing with a straight bat.

Be interesting to see if the £850k placing at 1.4p will need to be churned through as ominously as soon as we went past was slapped down to 1.4. If w punch 1.4 we can hope the placing shares might be held.

We drift down on low volume and down over 10p since we hit around 33p but the journey back up is a lot slower. Gotta be 45-60p of anyones money and could drop any day which is at least a double from todays price. Has 18 months been worth the wait??

I think there is not much doubt that the technology and potential is huge for Eqtec but we have got caught up in a venture debt death spiral with the merry go round of placing shares getting offloaded or specialist lenders buying holdings and then selling. Our most recent investor bought in at 1.4p so be interesting if they offload any or whether they will stick around. Annoyingly it does not look that Eqtec are keeping their investor register up to date as the last time they did was Nov 2023 so we have no idea of current shareholdings of Altair, Pitcole and YA II PN Ltd, Riverfort and anyone else. Would like to know. Most are underwater so logically you might think they will hold for now. If DP can deliver real cash in the bank from Idex and numerous other deals that have been forever promised and cut company costs so we run on cash then we might start to motor. The key is that DP must not dilute again for sometime as market cap is crazy low. Once Eqtec are back to £25m-£50m market cap i am sure he will buckle but hopefully will make sure he finds investors who will not immediately dump their stake and hold for the longterm. We do not have a single strategic investor? This has been his undoing. Realistically if Eqtec can operate profitably from 2025 onwards and do not make poor placing decisions then we could easily rise back to £250m in the medium term. The trust in the CEO is at an all time low and it is really up to the board to make good financial decisions going forward. if they can then skies the limit on potential as Eqtec are world leader in this technology and the market demand for proven tech is off the scale. we will see. gla

Issue is they have provided updates on number of advanced parties in discussion. However there is probably only so much they can divulge. At start process even MC was talking $100-$150m and this was before pog rocketed and miners have found themselves drowning in cash. They were clear on their price expectation early on so any suitor at the very least would have not even bothered investing considerable time and expense in due diligence. However does come a point when board needs to wrapup process and pull the trigger on one option. 18 months is more than enough time, even to have built this mine and ourselves would now be drowning in cash. The board have got to take the left or right fork in the road so everyone can move on. Hopefully monday RNS awaits :)

We just need to wait until the deal is complete. Everything points to a deal happening and lets hope its this month. Gla