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Certainly no easy way to do so. First you would have to map out every RNS and webinar and comment from DP and then track it against what happened and probably prove any way DP and certain investors might have been colluding or with DPS knowledge. As i understand an example might be early Altair dump of shares that was hidden from pis and we were not aware what was behind the decline until we got an RNS. Was DP in knowledge of this and pumping the stock to enable Altair to extract cash for next placing? Apple was a big ticket item and rewards were high for investors to pursue. Eqtec was pumping like crazy and provided huge revenue targets that were totally for the Fairies. Proving he was not just a gung ho optimist and not doing matters to benefit himself is something else. Obviously a 98% fall from the top is a catastrophe and i am sure DP was never planning it as all his staff and hid ego will be knocked. This verde deal and the recent Catalyse dump causing more downward pressure on the shareprice is not helping. I have made more investments and these are now underwater because i bought just as Catalyse were dumping in the background. Again if i had known i would have waited. I am sure DP was aware however but kept to himself. i do sense a big turnaround because we do actually have contracts in play and plenty of sunk capital. I plan to invest more on back of some news but Northfork is very soon. I think Eqtec have not released until we know our stake in company so technically and in accounts we wrote off the whole investment. While frustrated and down i have invested and my target breakeven is a lot lower and i hope easily achieved on back of real news. The recent Logik RNS sounded good but thinking it through i suspect we will not see that cash as surely if the deal was going through end of April it would all be contractually drawn up. Also we still lost a chunk of money as the £1.7m is less than what we invested.
Yes. absolutely. We were valued around the same market cap when gold was only $1900 so the board taking the brakes off going into production took the shine off the share price as the valuation shifted to what someone might be prepared to pay for the company in a bit of a market drought for debt, a completely different valuation. if they did decide to JV with someone and we kept 50% we might rocket a lot higher than today as the market would replace the sell valuation today with a NPV on the gold production scenario that was always the best scenario and £1+ would be very achievable. To get get the best price i suspect this will be a takeover so but they will probably be only able to offer a 50% premium to sell to their investors. This is why we need to see the share price at 40p at least so the bid could be both acceptable to their own shareholders but also Jim and long term investors. if we get to 40p then someone can make a 60p all share deal and we are probably all happy in current scenario. Sadly we have had too many nervous investors selling but each to their own.
30p smashed and we can reach 35-40p very quickly imo as 30p was the top of the last 3 upswings. If you believe a sale is imminent then every reason to hold until we get the RNS that cant be below 45p and we all expect more. I am sure there are plenty of sellers between 20-30p who are kicking themselves but with gold at this all time time it is really now or never for Condor. Maybe they change tack and go for production with some gold forward selling but my preference is an all share deal with Calibre as they could see their share price double over the coming 6 months as they are grossly undervalued to their underperforming Nic assets that with Condor rolled in will be printing cash like it is going out of fashion and run at full capacity.
One thing will be sure is that when it finally happens It will be obvious. Everyone will look back and wonder why they did not buy at 30p when a few weeks later it was 45 or 65p. I feel that with all the "very very soon" Jim handshake and no comment from Condor, that is uncharacteristic, and the enormous boat load of cash that Ryan could not quite say why they needed and in the same breathe outlined a strategy to sort out their lacklustre Nic growth by securing extra resource it is starting to be hard to say something is not about to drop and almost an open secret. Could be wrong and certainly the price at 30p suggests nothing is going on. That is testament to a tight ship as any real leak would see the stock jump to 40p+. Could be the last few weeks of an independent Condor.
$2352 :) now gold is flying so high why does board not forward sell, say 40,000 ounzes at $2200 and borrow $88m and get on with it. I am sure lending and equity options are now more plentiful. Surely China would like an extra 40k ounzes and that would not even dent our reserves. Where gold could go is anyones guess but it feels like it is catching up for lost time as it barely moved in decades.
Gold explorers and producers in general have been booming the 3 months and Kefi has fallen significantly. we are now well below the recent placing price so the fall in comparison to the market has been very painful to see. Kefi will have its time but we are now Mid April and i sensed this will meander on towards June. The second bank i cant believe are still working this through credit as that was totally not what Harry was originally saying and according to his words every investor was putting their investment to their boards at the end of February so over 1 1/2 months later has no board met and signed this off? Amazing Harry can get away with saying all this. Funnily enough that was all said just before he dropped the bombshell placing so go figure on his motives and how many people were sucked into topping up around .7/.8? We cant trust what Harry has to say but hopefully what the EG and others have said will get this moving in the next month.
If you look at last 3 months Calibre are up 56%, even with a $100m placing and Mako mining are up 25% with their own GOldsource purchase. c=Xondor up respectable 38% so really all stocks relevant to our valuation in Nic puts us in the mid range. Still plenty of upside just to keep pace with the locals so while happy to see Condor moving it is not an outlier by any imagination.
Really hope not. Rather hoping to focus on 40p but psychologically breaking 30p would put us into a good place but bid might well come before that and push to takeout price that could be low end 45p and high end 65p but we might know very shortly.
Thought this would pop through 30p this morning but Condor share price has only so far tracked comparable rises to other gold stocks so really nothing yet priced in for impending take over price. Still plenty of upwards movement imho.
We also need to think how much cash Calibre now have $60m gold forward sale, $100m placing, $160m cash in bank. They have access to debt so frankly Calibre are in a rude cash position. Valentine, as ryan said, is on budget and gold rally is going to increase that cash balance even faster. They could have $400m+ in a short time frame. Calibre will have only done all this if there was a plan as Valentine is on track and they had budgeted already for Valentine. gla
I mean they have 2.1m ounzes of gold resource and with 25k of drilling can take up to 3m. Obviously the resource across all land packages will easily surpasse 10m ounzes but whose counting but for Calibre looking to hit 500k ounzes a year asap to take full advantage of gold price explosion a canny buyer will pounce now while Condor are massively undervalued. Calibre run at 2 x cashflow, comparable in Canada is 8. Ryan believes part of that massive discount is Nicaragua and their under utilised mine and lack of resource to prove to market thet do not have future drain on growth. Adding Condor will completely change their Nic operation and as they have 15 quarters of growth market might push valuation of Calibre towards a bigger cashflow multiple. They will see a big rise in market cap over next 6 months if they can fully value their Nic assets and i think its pretty obvious how they might do it. Will they do it is a question of price. Calibre was always keen to buy Condor but at a very low price. This is why it is only a price matter and nothing else. Can Calibre meet Jim on an acceptable deal. Now Calibre paper is exploding its really now quite easy and Jim can save face by taking paper and some cash. who knows but what we do know is gold miners are back in vogue globally and have a long long way to go to get to a fair valuation.
Wow. Just listen from 26mins. Ryan says investors want bigger reserves and he almost says they want a big jump in reserves in Nic that sounds it is undervalued because of the low reserves. They are investing $25m a year in drilling and will take $100m+ to add reserves. Why bother when you have 2m ready to roll and reading between the lines Ryan is basically saying they want to buy and speed up that process. We are well within 400km so it makes complete sense, always has been. Question from day 1 is price. Now Calibre are booming they can afford to pay the price Jim wants. Ryan also says Valentine is on budget so again this $100m could be just Calibre taking advantage of market timing but i am betting it is there to smooth over a possible deal with Condor. We will find out. If anything happens it should be this month and regardless Condor need to update from its December update that was last real update on sale. Very exciting and 30p seems almost trivial on monday.
Totally agree 909 as Eqtec introduced Catalyse and lo and behold we find our share dumper. DP would have known this but pis, including myself bought in again above current prices. Issue is not so much my view of potential but more about investors who are in the dark not aware who of DPs investors are dumping shares. Todays shareprice is testament to DPs relations with bucket shop investors. I do not doubt we will probably be a £30-£50m market cap company later this year but pis have been diluted to kingdom come and i think these new investors combined have hoovered up 40% of the company for a pittance. I am wondering if DP is more connected to these parties than he lets on. Ultimately if he is not he is shooting himself in the head, except for his salary as his shares are worthless. I am guessing next RNS will be awards of boatloads of performance shares to get us back to £50m market cap, which is not hard to do if DP does not work with these types of investors. I personally think the company is now in a good place. We have almost no debt, revenue coming in and plenty of chunky returns in the pipeline that will come to fruition. Personally happy for Eqtec to take a month longer to recover so i can invest a little more and lower my average but DP actually cant take Eqtec any lower than £4m market cap. He is decimated the company and its investor base. For new investors it is very much worth a look over but so many investors left with disgust and do not blame them as some lost over 90% in a few years on DPs optimistic banter that sucked in so many investors. Its hard to say live and learn because DP was not trustworthy and his relations with so many investors that have fire sold Eqtec stock tells you a bigger picture.
Mako mining have seen their shareprice balloon recently and now over $150m. Their paper is now growing at a fast pace so with gold producers finally in their ascendency it makes a paper and cash deal very easy for most so there are plenty of gold miners who in the last month have seen 40% rises to their market value and ability to access very large amounts of cash and that will equally apply to Chinese gold miners. Next week could be news.
Its all shocking, most of all the market cap at £3.9m. Its clear market has put a very large discount on the board and steering clear. While many are not a position to do so and average down if you believe that a combination of Logik income, service revenue this half, Italy refinance, North Fork, Verde cannot move the dial and lift us above this ridiculous market cap i do not know what can. Its possible Verde was waiting on Logik resolution not wanting to invest in a company with litigation and the discount DP agreed was partly to fix that. I made the mistake of investing at the wrong time like most taken in my the CEO spouting a pipeline while at the same time knowing Altair were selling stock to get in the next placing at lower price. There is some questions DP would answer in court so i suspect DP will want to now keep Eqtec on the straight and narrow. but £3.9m does appear to be a pretty decent buy in price. I now only need to slightly more then double the shareprice to recover my historic loss. I might add more once we get results laying bare what has been going on with all projects. We have had no meaningful update on any project now for months.