Full Year 2020/2116 Nov 2020 15:10
Following last week’s chat I have put down some thoughts on where me might be this year/next year – avoiding adult/non adult split…..
We now know that our total revenue in 2019 was $17.2m, generating $2.3m PBT (0.2p eps). If we assume the c.$900k AB adjustment related to the second half of the year; and the c.$800K 2 additional revenue errors were split over first and second half’s; the ‘likely’ full year would be split H1 2019 - $8.5m, H2 2019 - $8.7m – so a relatively minor second half weighting. H1 2020 has delivered comparable numbers to last year ($8.5m), and we generated a bit more PBT – possibly as revenue from the adultblock (AB) sales started to flow. There is no reason to think H2 2020 trading will be less than last year, with the potential for some AB - so lets say we can get to $9.0m revenue in H2 2020 – that would give a ‘conservative’ full year revenue of c.$17.5m. Add in a bit of growth and a few thousand AB (bearing in mind SJL’s comments that the uptake may be a relatively small % of the previous 65K Sunrise B blocks) and next year should see $19m+ revenue – very achievable imo – with ongoing reductions in total costs.
In terms of the indicative $4m positive operating cash flow for 2020 referred to in the RNS, we secured $2.3m in H1 2020. So I would expect a slightly higher amount in H2 2020. I suspect we will have restructuring costs (TH and MS compensation plus others – c.$1m?) taking us back to the $4m.
So I suspect our cash flow from operations is possibly closer to $5m in 2020 (based on my restructuring cost assumption) and the previous management regime target for 2021 was looking to secure $1m of savings before the proverbial hit the fan; so operating cash flow for 2021 is likely forecast to be $6m already – add in further cost savings and AB growth – and we could be generating $7/8m cash flow from operations - starting to get close to 1c eps (900m shares currently – up to 40/50m could be taken out using buyback cash).
Looks like TF has spent his first few days reviewing the day to day business operations and finances – with management team review to follow – looking at all costs (overheads, fees, marketing, partner payments, commissions, etc) - which based on his previous experience will prove very informative. Focus will be on ensuring a satisfactory end to this year’s trading; and providing an update to the board on his findings. This will then better inform the board on how to maximize value from the business and secure support to implement a restructure (doesn’t have to be severe – just prudent) – leaving a low cost, highly cash generative business model with 5-10% pa revenue growth adding considerably to profit. And then put a for sale sign on the company. SB