Concerns27 Oct 2020 12:13
There are a number of things that worry me here until we get some communication. Firstly – the fear the investigation has kicked up other issues on revenue treatment affecting previous years. Secondly, that TH and MS have lost the confidence of the board (as they have with the majority of posters here) and are negotiating exit packages – although sometimes a clear out can have a positive impact on company performance it is still a disruptive event. Thirdly, the potential for our II’s to attempt to take the company private. They currently own 60% of the business (which I estimate has cost them in the region of c.£40m – averaging about 7.5p a share). That 60% is now worth today c.£25m – meaning the rest of the company is currently valued at c.£15m. The II’s could put in an offer at a premium to the current price (say 6p) – and see how many take up the offer – before forcing others to sell if they get 90%. What if they offered 10p a share - £36m would buy the remaining 40% of the business and pretty sure that would be accepted by a lot of us given the past 3,5,10 years. That would allow all these very public car crash events to be dealt with behind the scenes, sort the business out and sell it in a couple of years when reshaped. That would require II’s to act in concert – and let’s remember the coordinated purchase of SJL’s shares earlier his year – so they do talk. There may be a low risk of this happening – but if you were in their seat – you would be looking at all options; back the team and move on and hope that’s the last time this happens; move team on and replace (we have a COO and CFO who could step into roles overnight) and back to selling domains in preparation for sale in 12/18 months; attempt to take the company private; immediate sale in its current guise but that appears least palatable unless someone with deep pockets fancies taking on the challenge. SB