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It is Barclays' policy to declare and pay dividends on a semi-annual basis. The 2023 full year dividend of 5.3p per ordinary share will be paid on 3 April 2024 to the shareholders on the Share Register on 1 March 2024. A half year dividend for 2023 of 2.7p (H122: 2.25p) per ordinary share was paid on 15 September 2023.

UK

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Can Lloyds, Barclays and HSBC follow up NatWest's profit surge?

Published: 12:54 16 Feb 2024 GMT

Written by: Philip Whiterow

Edited By: William Farrington

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Lloyds Banking Group PLC

LSE:LLOY

Lloyds Banking Group -

After Natwest’s bumper profits on Friday it is the turn of Barclays (Tuesday) and Lloyds (Thursday) to see if they can repeat the trick while the giant of the big four quartet, Asia-focused HSBC, splits the pair on Wednesday.

Optimism for Lloyds

Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LSE:LLOY) is closest to Natwest in structure and the domestic markets it serves, so the good showing from its rival today should bode well.

“Lloyds faired pretty well back at third-quarter results, the only major UK bank to see underlying profit before tax improve from the prior quarter,” noted Hargreaves Lansdown.

“As a traditional lender with operations geared toward interest income, net interest margin (NIM) is key,” Hargreaves added.

Analysts are looking for 3.01% in the fourth quarter.

Aside from that, it should been plain sailing except now a rock has been thrown in into the pool in the shape of Close Brothers scrapping its dividend yesterday due to the FCA’s car finance probe.

Lloyds, too, is big in this market but according to Jefferies, “other than the fact that Close Brothers and Lloyds both operate in the car finance market, the two firms cannot be compared".

Lloyds has experience in operational complexities related to redress schemes [think PPI], Jefferies said, while the scale of any such refunds would have a very different impact on each firm.

The US bank also stuck to a forecast of a £2.5 billion Lloyds share buyback for 2023.

Subject to any additional provisioning, Lloyds is tipped to up full-year underlying profits by 15% to £8.1bn according to consensus.

Barclays to review

Barclays PLC (LSE:BARC) results will be accompanied by a strategic review of the business.

Hargreaves believes there will be a focus on cost reduction rather than material business changes, especially in the UK which sits well above peers on a cost-to-income basis.

“The real question for investors is whether restructuring charges taken over the fourth quarter will impact the expected £890mn buyback – of course, nothing is guaranteed.”

Barclays Investment Bank is forecast to have had another weak quarter but the M&A deal wheels are starting to turn again, which might bode well for later in the year.

Profits for the year are forecast at around US$7.3bn, up 3% but as with all the banks that depends on what particular line of the P&L you choose.

Https://www.cityam.com/evri-private-equity-owners-prep-parcel-giant-for-2bn-sale/

Redxeo

Year end is end of march, so Q4 full results would be mid April

I think

JPMorgan raises International Distribution Services target to 450 (300) pence - 'overweight'

Https://www.ofcom.org.uk/news-centre/2024/universal-postal-service-must-modernise

Https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68058408.amp

UK

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Royal Mail owner says network 'not sustainable', Christmas flattered by weak comparison

Published: 15:30 18 Jan 2024 GMT

Written by: Oliver Haill

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International Distributions Services PLC

LSE:IDS

International Distributions Services PLC -

Royal Mail owner International Distributions Services PLC (LSE:IDS) took the opportunity of the group's improved festive performance to again complain that it is struggling to deliver letters at a profit, while analysts said its trading statement was not as flattering as it seemed.

The FTSE 250-listed company today boasted of its best Christmas operational performance for four years, with Royal Mail meeting its letter deadline commitments and revenue accelerating to 9.8% for what was its third quarter and up 3.8% over the nine month to the end of December.

Chief executive Martin Seidenberg, who was promoted from leading the group's international parcels arm GLS last summer, warned that UK arm Royal Mail's network is "not sustainable" in its current form.

IDS has been calling for help from the government, including cutting letter delivery obligations from six to five days a week, while regulator Ofcom investigates how the 'universal postal service' rules might adapt as demand is changing.

With the government and Ofcom having previously rejected its calls, Seidenberg again issued a call for action.

“With Ofcom due to publish options for the future of the Universal Service imminently, now is the time for urgent action,” said Seidenberg in the statement.

“We are doing all we can to transform, but it is simply not sustainable to maintain a delivery network built for 20 billion letters when we are now only delivering seven billion.”

Analysts at broker Liberum said the strong volume and revenue growth rates in the peak December quarter were "flattered" by a weak comparative period in 2022 when service was severely impacted by UK industrial action.

However, they said operational performance was "much improved", with total UK parcel volumes up 21%, domestic parcels up 18% and GLS parcels up 6%.

Addressed letters (excluding-elections) fell by 6%, returning to the long-term decline trend.

"The lack of pricing power in an inflationary cost environment remains concerning," the analysts said, but said letters price increases "do appear to be sticking".

GLS, which has been the powerhouse of growth for the company, saw a second consecutive quarter of negative price/mix, which Liberum said raises the same concerns as in the UK given the inflationary cost environment.

Separately, IDS said group finance chief Mick Jeavons is to leave in May, and will be replaced with immediate effect by Michael Snape, who was previously CFO of Boots.

Https://news.sky.com/story/barclays-axes-4-000-jobs-globally-in-cost-cutting-drive-13044224

Royal Mail anticipating busy Tuesday as Christmas gifts sent back

Christmas presents

Royal Mail has said Tuesday will be among the busiest days of the year for product returns as people send unwanted Christmas presents back to retailers.

Dubbing the first working day of the year 'Takeback Tuesday', Royal Mail predicted couriers would see a 52% increase on December’s daily average for parcels returns.

“Now that the festive shopping period has drawn to a close, January is the busiest time of the year for returns,” Royal Mail chief commercial officer Nick Landon said.

“As every retailer knows, an easy and convenient returns experience that’s in line with shoppers’ expectations, is vital for repeat business.”

Some 81% of shoppers surveyed in a Royal Mail-commissioned study agreed a good experience returning an item would encourage them to shop with the same retailer again, the courier said.

Almost half of those surveyed said free online returns would encourage them to shop at one retailer over another, meanwhile.

Royal Mail, which is owned by International Distributions Services PLC (LSE:IDS), said its own parcel pick-up service had collected over a million packages in a week for the first time in December, as shoppers looked for convenience when returning items.

“Returns are an important part of the online shopping experience,” the company added.

Analyst recommendation for 2024

Midas also recommends Royal Mail owner International Distribution Services, whose shares have halved over the past two years. Hart said the stock "has been through the mill but at £2.72, the shares should deliver rewards in time. Buy and hold".

Royal Mail is planning to introduce parcel lockers that will allow people across the UK to collect their own online shopping orders, as the company races to modernise and keep up with rivals such as Amazon.

Nick Landon, chief commercial officer, told the Financial Times that the former state-owned group was “actively working” on installing lockers that will store parcels until collection by customers, copying a service offered by the US ecommerce company and other competitors.

The proposals are the latest attempt by the 507-year-old postal service to meet the growing demand for 24-hour online shopping deliveries. Royal Mail remains the UK’s largest delivery group, but it has lost market share as postal workers resisted plans to change working practices and the company struggled to adapt to the changing market.

The lockers — which allow consumers to collect online purchases at their own convenience, rather than waiting at home for a package to arrive — could also reduce the group’s dependence on postal workers as it continues to face criticism for high vacancies and low staff morale.

The rise of ecommerce globally has led to an increase in parcel lockers, which have enabled other couriers to cut labour costs.

Landon said in an interview that both consumers and shippers were “becoming increasingly reliant” on parcel lockers, and that Royal Mail needed to ensure it was “addressing all of the market”. “It won’t be long” until they were developed, he added.

Polish group InPost, which had installed more than 4,800 parcel locker units across the UK as of last year, reported a nine-fold increase in global revenues to $1.8bn in the four years to 2022, in a sign of growing competition in the delivery sector.

Alex Irving, logistics industry analyst at Bernstein, said InPost, which unlike Royal Mail is profitable, was opening new locations “all the time”. He added that this was a “cheaper way of doing things” than hiring postal workers to deliver packages.

Royal Mail’s leading market position has weakened further after postal employees walked out for 18 days last year, prompting retailers to send more parcels through rival couriers. The company’s share of UK parcel volumes dropped from 34 per cent to 25 per cent between 2020 and 2022, according to mail services group Pitney Bowes.

In exchange for a higher pay deal for workers, Royal Mail in April agreed changes to delivery start times and Sunday working with the postal workers’ union. But the group continues to struggle with vacancies and low service levels.

In December, industry regulator Ofcom said it was “concerned that Royal Mail’s performance has not shown any signs of improvement and . . . it has been unable to provide us with a timeline for when its performance will improve”.

Landon said the company was focusing on reaching “a position where we are profitable” and “a position where we are growing and win

Https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12896231/We-sent-FIVE-Christmas-packages-Britain-second-class-Parcel-Force-Evri-DPD-guess-one-arrived-first.html

ISpy, broch

Is to possible for some post codes not to get mail for weeks

Friday 22 December 2023 - Christmas Holiday half day. Markets Close 12.30pm and will not re-open until Wednesday 27 December 2023.

Wednesday 27 December 2023 - Standard 8.00am - 4.30pm. Usually low volumes of trades.

Thursday 28 December 2023 - Standard 8.00am - 4.30pm. Usually low volumes of trades.

Friday 29 December 2023 - New Year Holiday half day. Markets Close 12.30pm and will not re-open until Tuesday 2 January 2024

Https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-12883071/Inside-Royal-Mail-super-hub-big-30-football-pitches-gears-final-Christmas-rush.html

Oli I would agree , most of my parcels have been delivered by evri as well

Apparently Amazon are very quiet as well compared to last year

Which would mean less excess parcels for RM to deliver

2.77 was previous high for this year back in June or July

So above 2.80, looks like a good finish to the year

ND,

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/RMG/dividend-apzdkxpaorgjgxr.html