Member Info for shuttts

Wait and see mate. Tanfield MkII.

Chill dude. As news spreads and the get rich quick speculators start to arrive - on top of more and more good news - the share price will not disappoint you in the coming months.

It's going to hit highs that are way beyond realistic valuations.

I'm not so worried by what it does today SP wise since I'm in it for the long haul - but I'd have thought it'd be a bit higher than 62.

I've sent the news to the BBC LoL see if they'll stick it on their website - that should get the share price motoring.

What do you all think?

I predict an opening price of 64p

and a closing price of 72p

LoL

" I wonder whether it's preferable to check the offloading system early in the process in case there's a problem "

I can't see why you'd want to check the offloading "early" in case there's a problem.

You have a company that's dealing with the highly complex issue of getting oil out of the ground from a FB at sea - I'd think that any issues with transfering oil from one ship to another would be childs play by comparison.

Kind of like waking a brain surgeon up at 3 am so he can have a practice run at tieing his shoelaces in case he hits a problem at 7am before he sets off for work.

You can't very well test the offloading system until you have something to offload, and at £25K per day there's no point in calling it in if you're nowhere near being ready to use it.

Therefore logically the 72 hour period must be underway, and probably is at least half way through.

I didn't think HUR would wait to issue an RNS on the day of the AGM, but unless they issue one later today it looks like that's what they're doing?

I mean we know that since the last RNS and with prep time and the 3 day run we should just about be at first oil now, so the other tanker arriving at the AM looks more likely to be to offload oil than anything else?

When you think of the costs of the other tanker, plus the timing (and the AGM tomorrow) it's difficult to draw any other conclusion - isn't it?

I can't see them waiting until now to bring it in just to take away clean up fluids.

Wow - £8 a share, £10 a share - I predicted that this stock would draw in a veritable army of rampers and speculators and that the share price would rise to a point where it had detached from all realistic valuations.

Didn't think it would happen so soon, but hey - £some per share is looking probable.

Espacially once (if) Foil is announced.

Doesn't matter how many "derampers" we get, because this (as I've said so many times before) is the stock that getting rich quick dreams are made of.

So for every "deramper" we get there'll be at least 100:1 "rampers" (i.e. speculators) posting against them.

I see HUR's SP flying quite quickly to way beyond any measure of sanity or realistic valuation based on the dreams and greed of the people who will shortly be joining us.

For a moment!

How much do you think the SP will jump up on that day?

10p?

We're WAY over the all time high - the previous share price high was before the funding by issuing a shit ton more shares - in terms of market cap we've smashed it.

Serious movement on no news - something is brewing I think. Good news due imminently?

I had share in Severfield, another steely, but having looked at the numbers again - not so sure.

So somebrokers have said c.£3.50 possibly - what if the amount of oil in the ground is way more (i.e. more than2x) predicted, and the amount that can be recovered is higher, and the barrels per day is higher, and what when the speculators jump on board.

Personally £1+ would be fantastic.

But how high might it possibly go with rampant speculation and more and more positives added to it?

I ask because Dr T seems to be one of those people you could put your life in his hands and not need to worry.

And the conservative estimates, etc - he's not trying to over egg the pudding but play it right down.Which is a great sign?

Do any of you think the SP could detach from reality and push upwards to crazy money?

And if so, what i your guestimation?

£5?

£10?

£20?

I know it's asking a lot, but most sensible peope must have a number in mind??????

Was just going to ask the same thing.

That's a very good book and I think it's important to come up in advance with a strategy of how you're going to react if a share goes up or down, otherwise you act emotionally on the spur of the moment - and that's a recipe for disaster.

I've been in touch with the company today to try and work out how much longer Kestrel will provide revenue, I'd guestimated about 2 years - but actually, even with the 40% uplift in production it's probably got c.5.85 years left - that's amazing!

Here's how I calculated this out (which matches what the company told me).

If you look on the investor relations page there's a map showing "where mining is now" - that was uploaded in Sept 2014. If you look at the presentation here: https://www.anglopacificgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/190501-2019-AGM-Presentation-print-version-FINAL.pdf - it has an updated map with where the mining is today.

It's taken roughly 4 years (probably a bit longer - but I'm trying to be conservative) to mine that far.

Assuming the map is to scale, and simply using a ruler and a bit of maths - if the mining continued at it's historic rate, then Kestrel would be providing royalties for c.8.2 years.

With a 40% increase in production (and of course so a 40% uplift in royalties to APG - assuming constant prices for the coal), then it still has c.5.85 years of revenue contributions left.

That really is amazing - almost 6 years still of huge royalties to come from Kestrel, at 40% higher than has been the historic level, giving the company a HUGE war chest to replace Kestrel with, and to pay progressive dividends, AND they are already diversifying away from Kestrel to create new revenue streams.

If you look through that presentation you'll see what I mean, and if you pay particular attention to slide 16 comparing APG vs it's American peers - then you can see there is SIGNIFICANT room for capital appreciation for shareholders via share price increase.

I'm kind of gobsmacked really, I didn't realise Kestrel had so much more to give and with that in mind I think the current share price of c.220-225 is way too low, and will eventually probably hit £4+ - and if they can invest wisely - and the CEO and board seem to be doing a sterling job - then in 10+ years time this could be a real bargain nvestment.

Just thought I'd share my back of a fag packet maths and thoughts - please pick me apart if I'm wrong.

I'm hoping it can still be above 50p by end of week, but I'm not counting any chickens.

I suppose it just means that if and when first oil is announced and things are as de-risked as they can be, that th share price will correct with a biggish upward swing in a short time.