carpetbagger23 Nov 2009 20:53
KIW, and FQM, have clearly suffered the effects of the credit crunch. FQM, like other copper producers, hit rock-bottom last December - since when they have recovered rapidly on the resurgent copper price. The only thing that could or might knock this deal down is a fall in the global copper price. However, this is balanced by how the markets view the deal - FM:TSX is currently just over 6% up - or 5% more than the sector as a whole today. Currently the offer is worth about 76 p per Kiwara share. As long as the copper price holds, and major copper producers' share prices, this money is in the bag and any counter offer - which would be considered hostile by the KIW management, would have to be significantly higher than that (my guess would be all-cash at over 90 p per share). However, I'm just banking on the c. 76 p. I don't think the other major Copperbelt producers want to risk their necks at this present uncertain time. Some already have mothballed projects across the border in DRC. But you never know! The South Koreans are a possible bidder, but they don't have the expertise in independently valuing and developing such a deposit. FIRST Q are certainly FIRST choice!