Member Info for ShouldveSold

Its crap reading this bb and seeing comments that are more concerned with personal insults than company operations.
I take no interest in who said what or predicted what historically.
At the end of the day the company being in the position its in is no fault of anyone who posts here. I don't think any investor has or was silly to take and read the RNS's as they were intended; Painting a picture of a rosy future.

As I have claimed many times and continue to believe; Solo/Scir has never been in control or the master of is own destiny. Its always been a backseat passenger unable to call any shots.
With the exception of HE1 & now this Biogas diversification, it now has the ability to actually shot call & own its own assets.
As I have also said before; I am more upbeat about Scirocco now than I have been since KN1 shut down.

I am hopeful that by the time 2025 comes and Dangote wants some gas for his plants, this will be the cherry on top of an established biogas company.
I don't think any BOD could of done anything different with the Tanz assets, they are what they are; Unmonetiseable until the Tanzanian Government are ready to moneitse them.

From memory that was all the MC with Saffron1.
I am hoping thats why they are taking so long with S2 perforating tiny sections at a time. As long as the geology is identical, the UC should be dry oil.

I'd rather CEG take the rest of this year dialing in S2 & nailing the flow rates, rather than perforating it all & then losing the well to water again.

TR would then become more powerful by becoming the exec director or exec Chair for EAG.
It would be pointless.
I am glad Scir finally has a opportunity to grow outside of Africa and am eager to see how well they can manage the business without a government holding all the cards.

Personally I don't spend any time worrying about the price of Gas or what could of been had the deal been done. Its not something anyone can change so its just stress one doesn't need to put one's self through.

I think Ruvuma will remain unchanged till mid 2024, regardless of licence or seismic news. I have accepted its just a weight Scirocco will have to carry to maturity regardless of how long it will take or whether the Tanz government has any interest in advancing the project or not.
I am not convinced the Tanz Government has any desire to produce gas from the Ruvuma or Kiliwani projects. I feel as though they would rather keep it in the ground till its ready to go to the Tanz people rather than it be exported and Tanzania not benefitting from it.
I do hope that Scir firmly focus on this Biogas diversification because I think this will actually become the meat & potato's & any Tanz assets will be the trimmings.

I find it a little frustrating that Scirocco has switched from the 'Proactive Investors' type of communication to a closed controlled one, being that you now have to register to listen to what the company has to say.
Its not a big thing to register, I just think for the shareholders that have stuck with the company, it feels like they are trying to only communicate with the ones that register.
If that meant that the company would then reply to any concerns with investor emails replies being as they now have your details, I would be more motivated to take part.
I do think we as investors have done our part though and its down to the company to do its part.

Anyway I am not going to register to listen as I don't believe it will be anything we haven't heard before. I very much doubt the Greenan deal will be completed by then so cash generation will still not be happening. I do think it will be by November and I am guessing this webinar is in market preparation for that milestone.
I am also hopeful that site/plant upgrades are taking place & that that first income will be £25k + a month direct to Scirocco.
I'm not interested in hearing how much the business could be generating in 3 years time. I am only interested in hearing Scirocco is NOW generating income. And I don't feel as though I need to sign up to hear that message.

Perhaps Simply Wall St has seen the year end company figure's that haven't been published and that artile is 100% accurate.
All I can do is wait to read the financial statement when its released.

A company can only operate with costs being greater than revenue generation for so long before debt restructuring needs to take place with a workable business plan to resurrect the business, a asset stripping or takeover happens.

The first 1 thing has taken place. The business plan has just failed. Now the company is looking to outsource. If that doesn't work, all that's left is a sale of assets, a company buyout or insolvency in my opinion.
I think Eytan's plan to realise cost savings over 20-30% has not been achieved & costs have actually increased.

I think more shocking & concerning than anything is that the company reset was just 4 months ago. With projections of up to 2500 by year end with up to 5 SWP wells to be completed this year; that company outlook & forecast is now completely shot to bits. Drilling the SWP has now been halted this year.
4 months for a plan for fall apart..... I think the company management speaks for its self. And I do agree with LLL that insolvency is getting closer & closer.

If current production is circa 450bpd & S2 can reach 100bpd then with the expected 50bpd from Suriname (if it is drilled this year). I think 600bpd is realistic.

S2 is still being optimised with the upper cruse yet to be perfed. Factoring the projected 50pbd from Suriname and the final optimised S2 flow rate, I am expecting a figure around 600bpd by year end.

What I took from the RNS is that drilling in Trinidad is now finished for 2021 operations and the development programme may now be outsourced. So year end daily production now looks to be circa 600bpd.
No mention of new flow figures or Suriname drilling. Just more equity release.

Maybe they have successfully perfed the remaining MC & production has jumped to 100bpd.
Maybe its just day traders taking advantage of the drop yesterday & trying to make 20% this week.

Being as the EAG deal took 2months after if was announced, to complete. I am going to factor in further 2 months for the Greenan deal to complete. So by mid to later October hopefully an RNS will drop.
Which may indeed by the last for awhile being any new deal though the JV will now be done in the dark under the guise of EAG being a private company. (Gniess for some) ;)
Anyway first revenue by November woo hoo happy days & all that frothy jazz.
Wouldn't want to be out of this stock come the week ending 02/01/2022.
:)

Looking at the CEG website & scrolling through the Board Members & the Senior Management team; I am now pondering why CEG needs such a corporate structure.
With few producing assests to manage (I assume are being run by oil service personnel) Why would CEG require all those positions. CEG is not a mid-cap company with many operations and new business ventures that require such a heavy corporate workforce.

I wonder if the current market cap would double if it were to slim down by halving the corporate salary total.
Why does CEG need 2 chairman, a COO, a a Regional Director & General Manager, a New Business Director, & a Commercial Manager?
With company growth, expansion & different operations to manage, a corporate structure to support the business would of course make sense. But CEG are not there yet & at no time have they ever required such a structure in my opinion.
Personally I am expecting the largest recorded loss in company history when the full year figures are released.
With the way CEG is being run couple with results since the merger, I don't think there will be a company left by the end of 2022.

If one now assumes the lower cruise across the entire SWP is too unstable to flow it fundamentally changes the possible trajectory for CEG. This would likely halve the expected production rates by year end 2022.
It would also cut capex if drilling into the lower cruise zones was scrapped completely.
I think the figure of up 4000bpd with full SWP development is no longer viable.
Even if S5 was completed by year end 2022 I don't see how production without the L.C could take daily rates close to 2000bpd.*

*This of course is not taking into account any potential upside flow rates with the middle & upper cruise across the entire field.

Overall the outlook of discovering the 9 other Saffron like formations to me now look bleak.

I don't recall the number of '2000' being quoted regarding production.

Listening to the Vox Market interview I think its evident that the Lower Cruise may not be addressed this year or even returned to at all. So the only upside for S2 is if the middle can produce a little more and whatever the upper cruise has to offer.
So best case scenario maybe between 100-180bpd.

Apparently Suriname is ready to go.... but production expectations (if I remember correctly) are around 50bpd.
All in all I think new oil production rates of 200bpd by year end is a realistic expectation. So maybe 650 by year end down from the 1500 is on the cards in my opinion.

Perelka I disagree with your view on the basis that capex & opex is greater than income & will continue to be pegged in this way and no result or current proposal is likely to change this.
Actually S2 production acheving a sustainable flow rate of 400+ bpd could change this.
Although with Well decline rates higher than CEG can find & extract new oil & all income going back out as salaries & opex, I don't see a SP "recovery" with this current scenario.

The focus of discussions here is always about Star rather than the company. I do find it odd lol

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The deal still hasn't been completed. I am assuming this is due to regulatory & legal bureaucracy.
Is cash generation possible this year?