RE: Commodity prices.15 Jun 2022 08:14
theiceberg
Not sure i totally agree with your view on economics with respect to inflation, interest rates, and gold.
My view is that equities generally have a ways to go yet (further main stream drops) we have asset inflation on the back of QE money finally hitting peoples pockets, followed by labour inflation.
I believe the markets "still" think inflation is temporary and for me where i differ to you, is that the bond market needs to wake up and realise that that bonds no longer represent the best hedge against inflation. Therefore i believe gold will start increasing later this year and into 2023 and beyond, when the housing market cools / falls, savers and the holders of bonds decide to follow gold as the hedge, the rise in gold could be very significant and i believe it will not fall significantly from this level.
Due to the western world combined national debts, we are facing a 10-15 year era of wealth distribution (financial repression) and as such most western governments will keep interest rates relatively low compared to nominal GDP to reduce the debt to GDP burden using the effects of the very same inflation they don't want to reduce, all the while re-distributing wealth. The economy will run "hot" for quite a while, for this purpose.
Historically, in the early stages of inflation commodities fare well, though later they fall victim to inflation too.
For anybody interested in the limited upside of inflation through time - unlike other recessions i believe BoJo (or replacement) will introduce a massive government investment scheme (like Biden's) - target areas will be things like: chemicals & steel (reversing globalisation), building, energy security (north sea et al), green movement... - let's call it the old economy + going green...
XTR is obviously an explorer with an unrealised as yet asset value in BR. So tends to fall outside of the early effects of inflation.
Sorry for going quite aways of topic but i think folks are waiting here for near term results here (quite right too) but suffering the wider effects of the markets adjusting to the effects of inflation as it takes hold...
IMO ATB Shorn