Member Info for Shevek

I seem to remember that in a more reasonable moment Clive said he would be very disappointed if all three deeps weren't flowing by July so I guess that's the ultimate date where we can all really get upset. I personally will cry if the SP is at or below 15p in September as that will have been a very bad set of results from wells and flows to warrant that....

I think it's pretty easy to square away. EV = Net Debt + Market Cap (broadly). Net Debt of Premier Oil is about $2.7bn and the Market cap is around $800MM TOTAL = $3.5bn Also, per barrel cost of project is massively lower so barrels of flow are not equivalent. 40,000 barrels of caspian flow will generate much more net NPV cashflow than 40,000 barrels of premier due to production costs. In actual fact you've made me feel much better about the ability of Caspian to actually be huge. Thanks!

Given the contents of the RNS whatever they're up to can't be that bad for all of us. there certainly does seem a lot of buying behind the scenes the last few weeks. If that RNS had come last week before this got run up to 13 odd pence then we would have been a lot lower today. Instead we are still about 10% up from pre run trading which for more delays is a freakin' result. This has so much further to go but the deeps appear to be really tricky (which isn't a surprise but is constantly frustrating) - bring on April...!

If this were going private it would have been done a long time ago at around 5p. Complications with local investors originally reversed in at 60p kept it floated in my view. Instead the CEO converted a shed load of debt at cheap price to bring down his in price from 60p. Also, he's never failed before and has done this a few times with other companies so I read. The plan now seems to be to raise money from institutional investors so it needs to be kept public to do this. The whole idea behind the merger is to use the larger market cap to attract institutional money. That makes it safer for all of us. I think they may have gone slow to get the final conversion done at 10p but also if they did a 90 day flow test then they had to sell all the oil at 10 dollars is my understanding. Now it's around 16 dollars so a bit better. However, the bigger prize is now maximising reserves to get the longer more favourable licence term (Clive mentioned this in podcast) now that private investors on the Baverstock side no longer have to fund the drilling. I think we will see a flurry of news soon, followed by a fund raising and then a much more aggressive drilling campaign to achieve this. Let's hope so. Anyone confused about the value upside should read the two research notes published on the company website. They aren't massively extensive but do provide and interesting backdrop on the value proposition and where the upside lies. The shallows themselves are a winner that the market seems to have overlooked. Enjoyable bedtime reading! :)

I think it's clear that the debt conversion that will occur as part of the merger was for a number of reasons. 1. The CEO wants to convert his shares at that price, he thinks it's a good deal. 2. The conversion makes sense for the company as it avoids a requirement to pay back a significant amount of cash that can instead be spent on exploration. Please be aware that the CEO could have been much more difficult with his debt provision over the last five years. 3. It's cleans up the balance sheet to allow money from institutional investors to come in. It's clear from what the prospectus says and the interview Clive gave that the company plans on going to institutional money to accelerate the development of the BNG field and this clears up the story in terms of use of proceeds. 4. The company requires more cash to accelerate the field - that much is clear. This takes away a short term funding need that would otherwise have to come form outside new money. Once the conversion occurs I wouldn't be surprised to see the pace of development and news flow accelerate. I think this is clearly been a slow burn on the deeps and not the short term success we had all hoped for but hopefully we are coming around the corner on this now. The company has exciting prospects, is debt free and is positioning itself to become much larger with institutional investment followed on by hopefully drilling success and a good rise in the share price.