BEN VALUE CONCLUSION26 Oct 2021 12:30
It seems that all of these companies are now recovering from a severe downturn and Bens creek are now in a prime position to benefit from this long term reversal and demand for steel from production of met coal. The limited downsides effecting BEN are the $7 per ton royalties and how much coal they can produce at these high price levels but with the BOD being conservative in the scale of the recent offtake agreement it could be a case of under promise and over deliver. The CEO has stated that Integrity coal the offtake partner will take more coal than the agreed 22,000 tons per month so there is upside potential to significantly increase the revenues as the plant output increases. With a current SP of 14-15p and Mcap of £50m there is a significant upside in the SP with the current profit per tonne at $150 and the offtake agreement with Integrity at 250,000 tons per annum projecting a share price of 31p using a conservative PE ratio of 4. By reference to the group of met coal producers listed above, it is clear that there is a significant value disconnect between Bens Creeks’ current market value and peers across the three main markets AIM, TSX and NYSE. The mean market cap of the two smaller producers is
circa $1Bn whilst BEN’s market cap is a mere $60m/£45m.