Member Info for SharketMare

The arrogance of someone who last week claimed to have sold his Lloyds shares to buy more DLG (a stock they've hawked several times on here) is astounding.

DLG scrapped its dividend and fell by around 25-30% in yesterday's session.

I get the feeling that these guys are planning on doing only what is absolutely necessary from regulatory standpoint from here on in, i.e. the bare minimum. They will look to cut costs at every corner and, if they are confident of monetizing Cascabel, will not be bothered about pushing out an RNS in the UK to potentially add a few pence to the share price. The CEO's salary is comparative pittance compared to his predecessors and we've already seen headcount at HQ cut back with no stated intention to fill these roles. They will eke out the recent funding as long as they possibly can.

That's a pretty bold statement ScotKio, but fine I won't engage with him from now on.

Also Quady in response to me a few weeks ago:

"Sorry SharketMare your post is ridiculous. I have for nine years constantly called this right."

Do you think we're all a bunch of morons with no memory?

"At no point have I said I am right"
"Yes I have been right "

You can't make this stuff up.

Short-term*

FTJNY, HubrisHunter on Twitter agrees with that sentiment - suggests that we can expect merger to formally complete mid-Feb. Suggests short time PT for SOLG of 30p pre-strat review news.

https://twitter.com/hubrishunter/status/1612343587341041665?s=20&t=AV3tvIGZY4vHX5B0hqIkQA

redknight I highly doubt it, there is more integrity found in a barrel of snakes. Pretty much everything Quady has stated about the state and future of this company (the "most likely outcome") has been total rubbish. That everything is fine with comms and management, that we'll build Alpala alone with minimal dilution, that we're progressing towards DFS etc. etc. The latest is clutching at the straws of a JV so he can try and save face, hopefully not long to go before we can consign that one to the dustbin too.

6%*

I think Jiangxi are most likely to make an offer for the company. Why would they bother investing in a company as riddled with turmoil as Solgold if they didn't plan on taking the lot? It's not like owning 12% of Cascabel for a payout in 2030 is the motive given we've given up advancing it.

The question is whether their offer will be acceptable to Mather. If not, your solution comes in to play Bozi and Jiangxi can decide whether they are happy to stump up the cash for just Cascabel.

Quady: "I have never talked in absolutes on here"

Also Quady: "We know we are going to production. How do we know all this ? Because the company has communicated at every stage, they have kept us fully updated."

If that isn't talking in absolutes I guess I don't understand the English language.

This board started the year really promisingly with some useful information shared. Then Quady rocked up and started belittling people who don't believe with his production mantra. I'm really looking forward to the outcome of the strategic review so we can put the production conversation to bed, better understand how we plan on monetizing Cascabel, and what the future holds for SOLG beyond that event (if anything at all!).

Switching off for the weekend, let's hope for a positive RNS early next week with news of the merger completing.

"We have to wait now for the strategic review and hope this shows us how we construct Alpala."
"Easy to spot the crazies."

Yep, it sure is.

Good posts Fort. I do also wonder whether politically this is quite a savvy move for Lasso with an eye on re-election. The thinking behind that being as he is someone who is right/centre-right in Ecuador, the expectation is that this generally leads to closer ties with the US (or 'the West'). Through signing this trade deal with the Chinese, he takes away some of the political ammunition from his opponents on the left, and opens the door for serious state-sponsored investment from the East.

That might be a very blunt analysis as my knowledge of Ecuadorian politics is hardly a strong suit. If any of our posters on the ground have any further insight I'm all ears.

Approaching 9? You are comparing a company with a MCAP of £16m to one worth £436m. The fact that both are trading around the 9p mark is totally irrelevant.

Hi dip, many thanks for that post, a helpful summary. Agree w/ your sentiments wrt further funding should it be needed. It would be odd for Wyloo to come on board as a strategic investor and then let someone else take a slice of the pie if further funds are needed from us to bring Hav online. Particularly as an updated mtpa and mine plan from NCM would strongly indicate that we are definitely going mining (of which I have no doubt whatsoever!).

All the best and HNY.

So it is - thanks Jonesy, my apologies.

"Technical work to support the development of the Feasibility Study continued during the quarter. As announced previously, the study remains in progress and will be extended beyond the December 2022 quarter to allow further time to enhance value. This will include the impact of significant additional drilling information and the assessment of optimisation studies."

This isn't much of an update and it always concerns me when companies choose to say something without really saying anything. I'm guessing that we're unable - or perhaps unwilling - to put a timeframe on the publication of the FS as it's an NCM decision and we don't want to give them any more ammunition to play silly b*ggers?

Hi red, happy new year, all fair points.

I was not aware that there are already 15-20 majors established in Ecuador. I guess I would be keen to know to what extent are they 'established' in-country. It is one thing to take a stake in an exploration project that might strike gold, it is quite another to spend several billion on a block cave tier 1 mine that might not come online before the turn of the decade.

Your point on the DGR paragraph I highlighted being a "come on look what we've got" is a fair one, and combined with Mather's historical comments on bids/premiums may well be the right reading of the runes.

My preferred outcome is the one you think will take place - a competitive auction for control of the company. In absence of that, I'm a big advocate of The Bozi Solution™ so we can try and uncover a second Cascabel and continue to witter away to each other on this BB!

Or we hive off the regionals into a new company, and then sell SOLG - which would be Cascabel and nothing more. I think this outcome allows Mather to save face if Cascabel is sold for 30-50p and allows him & other shareholders to benefit from the rest of the portfolio. In absence of an auction scenario and multiple interested parties, I think this is the most logical outcome given the information we have available.

Morning and happy new year to you all.

I'm struggling to see a full sale of SOLG as the most likely outcome here for the below reasons. I think there will be some sort of corporate action that allows us to cash in in the first half of this year, but for my money it won't come in the form of a takeover.

1. The DGR release on the Osisko financing & accompanying comments

In this release on November 11th we gained possibly the greatest level of insight in to what Nick & the interest he controls here wants to see happen at SOLG. Granted he is not the person running the company, but you would imagine, given the % of the business him, DGR and Tenstar own that he would have to be onboard with a full takeover for it to go ahead. The below paragraph from that release strongly implies his preference is for a "rinse & repeat" strategy that many of us have wanted for some time.

"The recent appointments and the agreement with Osisko represent just the first steps in the restoration of value for SolGold shareholders. SolGold’s exploration portfolio, and indeed the upside still evident for additional discovery, will drive the restoration. At a time when major banks are forecasting significant global copper shortfalls from 2030 onwards and current stockpiles represent only weeks of current demand, the SolGold’s resource and exploration inventory presents an enormous
opportunity for the definition of not just one mine but an entire copper province."

https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/DGR/02597094.pdf

2. The absence of a buyer willing to pay 'fair value' (in Mather's eyes)

It would be ideal if we ended up in a situation whereby multiple entities were bidding for control of SOLG. This has been the case for some time. Yet no one has bid for the company, and given where the share price is currently languishing, I'm not sure the market expects a bid any time soon. Yes, the oft-cited Noront example is a counter to this point, and I can hear Fortissimo telling us that the market is useless at valuing companies accurately. But we are talking about Ecuador, not Canada and the pool of majors with the means (cash, given high interest rate environment) and motivation (alignment with strategy) to spend billions on a Tier 1 mine in a less-stable jurisdiction is therefore smaller, in my opinion.

It has been suggested that Jiangxi were brought on as a stalking horse, and may well make a lowball bid for the company in order to tease out BHP or whoever into countering. In absence of a counter-offer though, I can't see Nick Mather accepting anything between 30-50p for the entire company given his previous comments and behaviour. Which means we might see the share price spike to whatever the bid was but tumble back down if the offer isn't accepted by shareholders.

It is without doubt that the current BoD and Maxit are intending to monetize Cascabel, I just feel that given the above, they will be looking at options other than a full sale of the company.