RE: Time to go shopping...?7 Feb 2023 10:28
I have to say I don’t see much of a positive in the Newcrest/Newmont situation for SOLG shareholders. If anything I think it has the potential to delay any corporate action here, as any potential acquirer might want to wait and see what, if anything Newcrest does with its stake.
Given the boardroom troubles over the last few years, squabbling over funding, and lack of alignment with Newmont’s strategy (assuming they are successful in their bid), it wouldn’t surprise me to see the stake Newcrest own here sold off. That might be positive for us as it helps to put a new or more honest valuation on Cascabel, and would flush out anyone other than BHP and Jiangxi who are ultimately interested in owning and developing Cascabel.
If I were Jiangxi and thought I’d have a chance at picking up Newcrest’s shares on the cheap, I wouldn’t be in a rush to make a bid for ownership of Cascabel or SOLG as a whole. That said, through waiting you run the risk of someone else (Gina R or whoever) owning a slice.
I do hope as Fort notes that this acts as the starting klaxon for more dealmaking across the sector though.
A week late and counting SOLG. Anything beyond end of this week will look shoddy (again).