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Optiva Securities have produced an update note which is no doubt of interest to posters. I think the below is the content and disclaimers apply.

Tirupati Graphite plc (TGR.LSE) (“Tirupati” or the “Company”), the specialist Graphite and Graphene development company recently gave an update regarding the proposed acquisition of Tirupati Speciality Graphite Private Limited ("TSG") under the agreement entered into on 10 October 2018. The acquisition has been subject to regulatory approval under the Foreign Exchange Management Act ("FEMA") in India, which has been a continued source of uncertainty for the Company. Considering these delays to the acquisition, Company management are assessing their options with regard to brining TSG into Tirupati, and investors should note that there is no guarantee of regulatory approval. In light of these obstacles, combined with the overall market conditions affecting Tirupati, Optiva have reevaluated our valuation of Tirupati to better reflect the Company’s risk profile. In particular, we are moving to focus our model solely on those projects not exposed to regulatory/execution risk, being the primary production assets in Madagascar. We ascribe a risked NPV valuation to these projects (being Sahamamy and Vatomina) alone of 112p on a fully diluted basis, being over 300% upside potential based on the current share price. Important Notice Investment in this stock is subject to market and other risks. The value of your investment may go down as well as up and you may not get all of your money back. Past performance may be no guide to the future and the opportunities to trade this investment may be infrequent. This research material is a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of research and is not subject to any legal prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. We do not hold out this research material as an impartial assessment of the values or prospects of the company. Research comment and recommendations have been independently produced by our research department unless otherwise attributed. ? Operational Performance in Madagascar: In its Q4 operational update, Tirupati announced that they achieved their highest quarterly shipments to date, with the highest quarterly shipment and sales of 1,137 metric tonnes. For the full year to march 2022, total production of 2,996 metric tonnes was recorded, up from 1,718 tonnes in 2021, and broadly in line with Optiva’s forecasts. The Company experienced delays with the commissioning of its first major modular production expansion at Sahamamy, following adverse weather conditions in Madagascar. The delays however were not severe, and the 18,000TPA facility is expected to commence production in September 2022. Operational debottlenecking and improving preparedness for weather conditions at Vatomina are expected to increase production output for the asset going into 2023 accounting year.

I remain of the idea that any sellers who were locked in have probably exited by now and we will move up. The cash flow generation will be significant and the shares will gradually re-rate as with any other accretive deal.

Fully agree, positive news around the corner with revenues starting soon from the recycling side. This correction is actually providing a top up opportunity which I was not expecting.

Malcy has seen many similar transactions and it’s always the same ie after suspension some exit as they need cash or didn’t like being locked in and thereafter the value of such accretive transaction attracts investors and the share price rises. The last paragraph sums it up: The shares on return have come off around 4% which is understandable in the short term as some holders locked in for a year needed to sell for various reasons. However at these levels when the market gets to understand the potential of the operational and then yield paybacks the shares should be a great deal higher than here.

It has all been incredibly disappointing but imo all the bad news is now out and we will have found a bottom today. I think the Mozambique deal will progress if deemed in our interest. I have no doubt that Shishir and co will deliver the 30,000 tons on a shoestring later this year and progress with our means towards the 80;000 tons by 2024 which will justify a much higher valuation from where we are currently.

Bought some on the back of restoration and upside from this transaction. You will always have sellers after a suspension, but buyers will come in when a deal is so accretive.

See latest Malcy Commentary.

RESTORATION OF TRADING ON AIM – SAN LEON ENERGY PLC

Trading on AIM for the under mentioned securities was temporarily suspended. The suspension is lifted from 11/07/2022 7:30am, an admission document having been published.

I commented on San Leon on Friday after a long chat with CEO Oisin Fanning and there is nothing more to add to today’s news that the shares have returned to trading on Aim.

The company returns with a stake in the world class OML 18 which should provide solid cash flow, later in the year the completion of the pipeline will make all the difference eradicating wastage, indeed the barging that they are already doing should already be increasing efficiency.

Record prices will make the economics excellent and returns to shareholders have been committed to by the company. ‘San Leon is proposing a capital restructuring and issue of preference shares to San Leon Shareholders immediately prior to completion with the preference shareholders having a preferential right to the first US$40m of future dividends paid by San Leon’.

I have been a strong supporter of San Leon in recent years as I believe that when they stated that they would return 50% of free cash to shareholders that amount of money could mean that the company will yield over 20% on an ongoing basis. There are still things to clear up such as free float and timings of some parts of the deal but as the shares return and the markets gets it the share price should rise significantly.

The shares on return have come off around 4% which is understandable in the short term as some holders locked in for a year needed to sell for various reasons. However at these levels when the market gets to understand the potential of the operational and then yield paybacks the shares should be a great deal higher than here.

Bluebelly, let's see. Mozambique has not got the most relaxed political backdrop these days, an element which will no doubt be considered. Shishir and his family have got a large stage in TGR and he will, as with the Indian activities, pursue the best route to turn TGR around. Clearly like all very disappointed but remain of the idea that is actually the time to add at these levels as most of the bad news is now out.

Most bad news must be out now, would therefore think that we might bottom here.

New Indian rules require valuations in any deal not older than 21 days, hence this RNS. Personally I’m now thinking that we are cheap on the Madagascar business alone and We will be at 80,000 tons by 2024 and that is a 40mio pa EBiTa vs a 25mio mcap.

We are way oversold. Not surprised due to the delay and not a bad idea at looking at alternatives that would still give value to TG.

https://twitter.com/share_talk/status/1546175510841024512?s=21&t=Xa-_7Ixz7Mhx9KkZ8SJIFQ

Let’s remember that we should have newsflow also on the downstream speciality and composite parts of the business as detailed in the corporate presentation https://tirupatigraphite.co.uk/pdf/Q3-2021-CORP-PPT.pdf

https://twitter.com/tirupatiuk/status/1545444542299652101?s=21&t=aSm6BQK8seVIyGyp76o-lQ

TGR is still my largest position otherwise I would buy some at these unjustified levels.

To build more resilient infrastructure for our operations and our communities, #TGR has initiated studies to convert all its primary internal and connecting road network to metalled concrete or black top roads from existing funds, aiming to further improve capacity utilisation.

Clearly trying to be clear now by stating ‘from existing funds’ .

Who knows, but imo £25mio mcap for a company like Tgr is cheap. At some point this will turn and move up pretty quickly. Can you call the bottom ? Unlikely with any share buy you’ll buy cheaply which is clearly what the game is about.

Copy and paste to reach 10 plants by year 5. The market pullback has created an incredible entry level.

Personally think that the battery recycling side of the business will generate an incredible amount of revenue going forward and the mining assets will slowly be monetised to bring cash and reduce the need of any placings. The board have a clear plan with two plants per annum and we are getting closer with kickstarting the first two. Therefore copy and paste exercise.

Great news

I messaged Shishir and he mentioned 'We responded to umpteen emails on placing. We cannot issue a single new share of the company at these prices we will progress with our means as we are doing'. I have been here since pre-ipo and Shishir was able to progress matters on a shoestring, now we are in a much better position generating revenues and these will progressively increase. Premier Miton is our largest institutional shareholder and Gervais Williams is one of the smartest fund managers out there. Nothing is guaranteed and time will tell, but this could be a massive buying opportunity.