broker15 Jul 2022 10:46
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Graphite Market Conditions. Despite overall global slowdown, graphite markets have been largely shielded from price shocks, due in part to the continued growth in Electric Vehicle production, as well as the broad applicability of graphite across an array of different sectors. In Q4 of FY-2022, Tirupati achieved its highest basket price to date of US$866 per MT, with demand for smaller flake graphite contributing strongly to this. Other parallel markets have also benefitted, with battery materials such as Lithium at all-time highs. The Company achieved sales of 2,662 metric tonnes of graphite within the FY-22 period, being 89% of the periods production. The difference is largely due to inventory lag, and management remain bullish that the market has more than sufficient demand to meet the Company’s expanding production profile. ? Target Price Update: Optiva consider it prudent to downgrade our Target Price in light of recent developments, though that does not detract from the significant upside potential still apparent in Tirupati. We are now using an ex-regulatory risked NPV, effectively zero-ing several prospective projects in favour solely of the currently operational divisions. This gives our risked NPV £126.2m, or 112p per share fully diluted. This is arguably a very stringent downgrade, as it also removes any prospective value for the Mozambique assets, for which it is considered highly likely by management that the regulatory permissions will be granted in due course. Management also continues to remain engaged for finding solutions for the proposed acquisitions. As a near term Target Price, we consider a 50% discount to the NPV a reasonable 12-month target, being 56p on a fully diluted basis, or an uplift of 137% from the market price at time of writing.
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