We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
Last year 90% of people (myself included) thought the Sale would be announced at a moments notice.
It is not ironic that a significant amount of people now think it will possibly be months away?
Hopefully the growing consensus is wrong again and we have a swift conclusion now that the AGM has been dealt with successfully.
It is often the human Psychology to make their conclusions based on sentiment rather than logic.
GeckoLovesGreed is the perfect example of that.
Gecko went from a self confident high flier to a shivering wreck, possibly scared of his own shadow.
He looks at the mirror thinking 0000023 on his imaginary certificate is 3.2 Million shares.
Gecko probably tells his friends he has a water bed but we know it is something quite different. Tully would probably call it the dark pool.
Just another day on Wally St for Gecko.
GLA Sharegar.
My bet is:
Sale will be MT plus 4 of the Open pit mines from the JV that are nearest to MT, they also have the most proven up (in certainty) resources.
(that should be >75% according to AIM rule 15).
The reason I believe part of the JV could be included is because the interest of the potential buyers was noted as being intensified after the JV was confirmed. Also, the company highlighted those 4 mines in the RNS. Why?
Keep WK and the remaining pits from the JV.
Dmitry stated in the past that Platinum would catch up at a later date on Palladium. Keeping WK would be a wise move at this stage. The cash from sale would be enough for the massive dividend and we could retain some of that to create further value from the remainder of the JV pits.
GLA Sharegar.
I find the emphasis on Covid-19 quite interesting, in today's RNS.
Yes, it has to be mentioned because it is the cause for delay of the financials.
Quote from RNS:
"As has been widely reported, Zambia is currently undergoing a major COVID-19 wave of infections which has had a wide-ranging impact on large sections of the population and on various businesses. Arc is taking every precaution to ensure the safety of its employees and contractors."
It seems to me that the company are very keen to paint a detailed picture on the negative impact of Covid. Call me a sceptic, but I have the feeling someone wants your cheap Arc shares.
Instead of emphasising all the great reasons to own this stock they are doing a great job of talking down what we have got.
Ok they mentioned upcoming drilling and our strong cash position.
However, I would be constantly mentioning the Sturec and Casa potential cash values. The high price of Copper and great outlook for future demand. Also, the near time potential for cash generation from a very low capex high margin production facility.
Also, I would keep mentioning the fact that there are other interested parties waiting in the wing if AA do not come up with the goods.
There are so many more positives that could be mentioned. Our current cash position and potential for near time cash generation mean that we hold all the cards. AA or anyone else can try and bluff but that strategy will not win this game.
In conclusion: I think games are being played and I have no intention of selling Arc at such a bargain price.
GLA DYOR Sharegar.
Thanks SmallJ,
The real investors appreciate people like you, who find relevant information for the discussion board.
Those who do not appreciate? I doubt they are invested in the upside, so I prefer to green bin those ones.
GLA Sharegar.
The positive RNS today gives further confidence that all is well in EUA land and as I suspected the board were not able to add more details due to constraints such as AIM 15 rule.
Checking back on all of the important RNS's and even as far back as the Proactive interview from Dmitry in late 2019, it is clear that up till now the board have delivered in all their promises while throwing in a few surprises that should be seen as positive (The Japanese/Asian connection).
They interestingly did not include a disclaimer about the possibility of no sale.
In the scheme of things I think the board have communicated with investors when appropriate and once the Substantial sale (>75%) has been accepted I think no one will give a hoot about the length of time it took to get over the line.
It could drop any day as someone once said to Aled Jones, but in our case I'm sure it will be good news.
I do not think there would have been an update quite like today's, especially being so close to the AGM if the board did not have full confidence of an imminent sale.
I believe the wait will be well rewarded and full marks to everyone that has sailed through the stormy waters.
A few shipmates have sadly fell overboard (too much Rum?) but you will be pleased to know that Rowka was last seen taking out a Great White shark with his trusty Pen Knife, before swimming 20 miles to land. Apparently he learned that from his Army training.
GLA Sharegar.
Looking forward to the AGM?
Once the AGM has been dealt with, could it be right time to drop the RNS with all the details of the bid?
I am assuming that the bid they are concentrating on must be acceptable and therefore much nearer the recent AFC valuation of 70p+ which BTW does not include significant EUA assets of value, such as the 104M Oz Platinum equivalent 75% JV with Rosgeo. So we are not talking loose change.
Do not forget, the RNS in May 2021 actually stated that there were several bids related to the securing of the JV with Rosgeo.
This implies that improved offers are on the table.
I suspect all parties were anticipating the JV and therefore the improved deal was being worked on well before the JV was confirmed as official.
I do think it is unlikely we will hear details of the offer until the AGM has passed. Only one week to go thankfully.
However, could we get a massive surprise and Massive dividend conformation before the AGM?
Another possibility: Will we be given notice for an EGM relating to an announcement at the AGM?
There must be examples of companies revealing big news at AGM's and surprising shareholders or am I wrong and AGM's are nearly always a boring and quick vote counting for mundane resolutions.
The current SP looks like it has been heavily manipulated, but there will be a conclusion, we will find out the extent of the manipulation and hopefully be celebrating with a few Rums and copious amounts of Champagne accompanied with a Pirate Burger.
If I was an MM I think my next move would be a significant (or massive) move upwards in SP to catch out anyone looking for a turn in sentiment.
I think a nice 50%+ rise, any day now would be a good way of getting the show back on the yellow brick road.
We never should have sent Hooch in to do the negotiations for £35. I would have accepted a conservative £2.
GLA Sharegar.
We are not under the restrictions and radio silence of the FSP anymore.
There has been several offers and there is one in particular the board are focussing on.
While we are wait, I would like to see an updated company presentation. This would showcase the massive progress the company have made since the last Presentation update of Sep 2020.
There have been so many positive developments that could be incorporated.
I think a bigger boost for the market would be the prospect of another showcase interview featuring Dmitry. I am sure this would be an easy way to get the SP up to a significantly higher level than it is today.
Now is the perfect time for Dimitry to come out and explain our strategy going forward. There would be some information he would not be at liberty to divulge but that should not stop him from giving the information that the market thrives on.
I am not sure if EUA have their hands tied while the formalities are being dealt with but I think it would be a real boost for morale just to see and hear all things Eurasia straight from the horses mouth.
I cannot think of any reason why Eurasia would not be able to do media interviews.
Remember, these interviews can be an amazing way to get a point across to the public without actually saying it. Often an "unanswered" question gives clues. An example would be Dmitry describing "no small deals" and giving comparisons with other mega deals when asked about how much will EUA sell for. This is not the type of information you can get from RNS's.
GLA Sharegar (hopefully on the last furlong, even I am starting to tire).
Tigra,
I do like a Wine, but unfortunately I have not found one that I have noted in my memory as great.
Basically I go to M+S pick something at random, fancy labels always get my attention.
I then drink the Wine and say to myself, that tasted exactly like the last one I tried.
Maybe working with chemicals has destroyed my sense of taste.
I would not mind hearing peoples choices when it comes to a good Wine though. I normally choose Merlot, but in truth not too fussy.
Barefoot is one Wine I remember as good, and it was quite cheap.
Great post BTW earlier today, Tigra, I hope you are typing up the next RNS.
GLA Sharegar.
Like Robert1971,
The length of time this has taken has started to have an effect on me. I've decided to follow suit and cash in my shares and at least be happy with my gains.
Only one condition though. I am a strong believer in fate so its all down to the toss of a coin over a nice Wine tonight.
If its Tails I sell the lot. None of that best of 3 nonsense, if I get a result I don't want.
The only thing that might affect my decision is that I am using a double headed coin!
In till the very end.
GLA Sharegar.
There are so many positives going on with this company and I believe management are correct in pursuing the current strategy which is based on cash generation and growth that is also focussed on quick cash generation.
However, it is always good to think about the longer term. Step forward Tjate.
My preference would be to hold on to this asset with diamond hands until the Platinum price is much higher.
Then I think there are a couple of great options.
1. Set-up a JV with an established mining company and we just sit back and take no risk. However, we would be left with a smaller %. Typically 25% if the partner de-risks the project.
2. Make it clear we have no intention of mining, but carry out exploration and see if we can establish a resource that reflects the massive potential of this property stated on Jubilee website. (that is : Targeted exploration 70 M oz PGMs over three farms).
Option 2 would be my choice.
In 1-2 years time I would not mind some of our strong cash flow being re-directed into Tjate.
GLA Sharegar.
I was watching this Altus for a while.
Thought it was too good to refuse at just over 60p last week. Below the placement price!
I like the geographical diversity.
Plenty of land to explore and then form partnerships at the right time.
They have their own pet project that could potentially cover the current SP on its own.
What really made my decision easy was the acquisition of Moroccan land along the Atlas trend.
On the TSX I have been invested in Aya Gold and Silver. That company is worth studying to show what potential the Atlas trend in Morocco has.
If you look you will see what I mean.
I conclude that Altus has a great business plan and should create value progressively and because there is so much blue sky potential over many large land packages, with a bit of luck we could hit the Jackpot and Multi bag at any given time.
That is the sort of bet I like, one with solid foundations.
GLA Sharegar.
Excellent interview.
I do not think I have seen Harry as confident as this before.
Also interesting was the mention that some investors have been funding Kefi to prevent further dilution.
To me that reeks confidence and it is good for the PI as well.
I had trouble with the links provided, hope this works!
https://vimeo.com/560293726
If the funding is confirmed this month, Kefi will surely have a significant re-rate (4p-6p within a month??).
I believe the re-rate will be larger than normal for this type of news and that is because of the numerous historical delays that to be fair are not all the fault of Kefi.
Saudi is another reason to be cheerful. The market has not woken up to the great potential we have in proving up a world class discovery.
The grades look very economical and the drilling campaigns so far have been excellent.
Happy to take my chances.
GLA Sharegar.
As suspected once the sales get to a certain amount (>40K) we start throwing off cash.
The market on our doorstep is massive and the longer term ambition is to get up to 400K/TPA. The current facility has already been set up for this target.
Not sure how long it will take, but at current rates we could possibly be there in 3-5 years and while we are doing that the share price would be appreciating as the cash accumulates at increasing rates.
What to do with the money?
Brian hinted at acquisitions. However, wisely said that it was not a good idea while our SP is so low and under valued by the market.
So dividends? I say no!
While our SP is so low it would make much more sense to start a share buy back programme.
This would create much more value for shareholders, and I believe it would also bring the share price up to more realistic values making it a useful tool giving us leverage for takeovers.
We have a 100+ year supply of KPFertil. So what should our P/E be?
I think 25 P/E is quoted on the Harvest Website for established companies. Assuming the positive trends continue and we grow our sales and become an established supplier, then the value of the shares can only go much higher.
On top of all that. There is the real threat of inflation which means our product will be in demand at even higher prices.
Potential 10 bagger in a year or two IMO.
GLA Sharegar.
What valuation will AFC have on their next update?
Original was 57.7p. (It had a30% discount due to Flanks not being issued at that point).
Since the report:
1. Conformation of the flanks.
2. JV with Rosgeo (yet another world class partner). Nine open pits with optionality.
3. The above two take our Pd equiv up from 2Moz to just under 50M Oz Pd. Taking into account our 75% portion for the JV.
4. Many offers received during FSP.
5. Board have selected the best offer (juicy details still to be confirmed).
6. UBS/DLA Piper/CITIC/VTB involvement throughout process.
7.WKM DFS approved.
8. Production at WKM will be 3 pits this year.
9. Potential for further resources with drilling or more applications.
10. EGM vote sailed through without a problem.
11. All metals have went up significantly in value. PD/Pt/Rh/Ir/Cu/Ni and any more you could name.
If AFC do not at least triple their target price to 180p then you could knock me over with a feather.
GLA DYOR Sharegar.
Great News today. Land Ahoy!
It is the RNS we have been waiting for.
The multiple offers that the green box people conveniently did not acknowledge have now been whittled down to one substantial offer that the board will concentrate on.
In other words we should have some sort of recommendation from the board once they reveal the details of the bid.
It is also interesting that the offer price has not been revealed. Is it because they have still to formalise the closing of the FSP process?
A few more trading days should be in everyone's interests.
This could allow the SP to sky rocket to a more realistic amount before a hefty premium when all the relevant details are announced.
GLA Sharegar.
Well done to all holders. Especially those who have been here for many years and the MACnificent informed contributors. Too many to name. You know who you are!
Now where is that Rum?
So much has changed since the Feb 2020 AFC report and valuation of EUA (55p-60p)
1. Flanks approved, therefore removing the 30% discount to their original valuation.
2. The JV with Rosgeo and the addition of mainly open pit most likely low cost 105M Oz Platinum equiv.
3. Japanese/Asian interest that will strengthen our negotiation power further.
4. Point 3 includes companies with $20+ Billion revenues and our new director who has been part of fund management that had assets measured in the trillions of $'s.
5. Rhodium/Palladium/Platinum/Iridium/Copper/Nickel all up in price by significant margins and this is money that goes directly into the bottom line as our costs are the lowest in the industry.
6. WK DFS complete and now we are able to produce from several pits and work all year round including preparation for the mining season.
Further to those points I would also add a few more significant points in our favour that are more obvious now than they were back then.
7. The Green revolution is gaining traction.
8. Currency devaluation will continue (Will the West pay off their debt the honest way? No chance!)
9. COVID is ongoing making already high cost deep underground SA mining less reliable and riskier.
10. The deficits in the metals is still there and has potential for getting wider (Green revolution).
11. Recent flooding of NN mines has a significant effect on Pd supply.
The new valuation for EUA from an AFC type report.
My educated guess would be 60p x 5= 300p and that I believe is reasonable.
Any thoughts on the potential AFC update?
GLA DYOR Sharegar.
Thanks again Anders,
Your communication (the timing request for the RNS was also thoughtful) has been much appreciated and has also meant the bot flies could not get up to their usual nonsense with their wild theories.
A sentence with bot flies and theories is unusual because that implies that they think.
Once again, best wishes in your new luxury abode and I'm sure your looking forward to the FSP conclusion so you can collect the Lions share of your loot.
GLA Sharegar.
Anders,
You have shown what a class act you are. No one can argue with your decision to buy a dream house.
Hope you enjoy it.
Still got plenty of skin in the game!! Yippee.
Now, about that house warming party you are having once the FSP is finalised.
Just one question regarding the detail.
Does your swimming pool have enough room for our boat?
Do not worry we will bring our own Rum.
GLA Sharegar.