Member Info for shandypants2

I really hope he uses copy and paste to save him time as he repeats the same few points repeatedly, again and again.

For someone clearly not invested why does he bother? Please don't answer.

Today's RNS just relates to kids up to the age of 17. Previously the FDA approval was for adults aged 18 and over.

It was always pretty much a given the results would be fine, however, the tests needed to be done with patients of a specific age. Similar the the Chinese approval as the previous results would have had limited ethnic coverage.

Not expecting the kids market to be overly significant but happy to be proved wrong.

Are you asking about Accrufer/Feraccru itself? This is a non salt based iron tablet with high absorption levels.

You will be taking a cheap salt based alternative with low absorption levels.

Usually doctors can/will only prescribe it if a salt based alternative has first been tried with little success (due to the low cost of the salt version v the higher cost of accrufer).

The other alternative use that is not widely utilised is as an alternative to regular IV users e.g. people with CKD. After an IV they could be prescribed accrufer to reduce the need to have an IV top up a few months later.

Personally never been a fan of a company buying back its own shares. Firstly the supposed positive impact on the share price rarely occurs and IMHO it's as if the BOD don't know what to do with excess funds.

For me a special dividend would always be my preference as that will surely benefit shareholders more.

Anyway, just noticed the NAV discount is now almost 14%. Usually this is c9%. So the SP drop combined with the share buyback is making the discount more attractive. Hopefully the NAV discount will close to under 10% in the coming months

Does anyone know what the broker estimates are for TRU? Company often refer to broker numbers but all broker research is via a paid for platform.

I am not expecting H2 to be as good as H1 and company have tried to say similar. If Playstack does a minimum of £10m and Oxygen and Satago a combined £5m (oxygen up a bit, Satago down a bit) that's £15m and £40 for the whole year (v's £18m in 2023). If the new Playstack game due to be released in Nov does well maybe we can get closer to £20m for H2 and £45m for the full year.

Not expecting a PBT but hopefully any reported loss will be negligible

Having digested the results and also the presentation i think there are clearly both positives and negatives.

Revenues are increasing and the rail contract plus the end of strikes must be a positive. Whilst disappointing to make a H1 loss it is 1/2 of the previous year and SAL is very much H2 weighted .

Having said that there is no mention of Q3 trading (so suspect it has been no more than ok ) and it appears they are unable to predict Q4 as promotions are booked quite late.

Cashflow not great, but usually is quite poor in H1, and with current liabilities exceeding current assets by over £2.4m there is limited wriggle room.

Slightly concerned with admin costs increasing almost inline with revenue. Not only will this reflect increased wages/cost of living adjustments it indicates that the rock up pop up concept is quite a high staff cost (people manning the kiosks).

I suspect full year will be similar to the last 2 - a small profit on the back of an improved H2, but no super news to get overly excited about.

Transhave - did you really say you are happy to hold, even in jest? Down over 50% in a few days, and c80% since the beginning of the year.

H1 costs have been reduced but are c£250k so let's day £500k for a year, even if some are deferring salaries. Regulatory costs will not be minimal too.

We've had over 3 years to get a deal why will the next 6 months be any different?

If the miracle does happen then your shares are so diluted now is it really the game changer we were all hoping for 5 or so years ago?

BTW not sure who AIM4 is, definitely not me, and been happily married for 29 years, not that it's any of your business.

Keep away from the personal insults

UKW seem to buy into existing farms that are already up and running and producing ( i think).

Current SP not for the first time a bit of a mystery IMHO. A 7% yield at a time of falling inflation and in a sector that will get a lot of focus and support from the new govt. Yet the SP going nowhere . Same before the bumper 3.4p one off dividend last year. I thought SP would perk up in advance of the ex date, instead it fell.

My rule of thumb with this share is to buy in the 130s and take the divi, If it perks up into the 150s a small top slice. Then repeat

Progress has been over 1 quarter, the previous Q growth was 1%. Q3 is critical to ensure the momentum continues. If we get steady 25% growth Q on Q then we should be ok Q2 or Q3 next year, but over the last 2 years there have been many bumps in the road.

Don't forget c50% of revenue is 'lost' due to cost of product and the 45% to viatris.

So we cover annual costs of c$38m they need revenues of double that. Based on $200 per prescription (they are currently on $171) that's 380k prescriptions per year or 95k per quarter. We are currently on 36,400.

Nothing like a heavily discounted Friday afternoon placing, just 6 months after they last raised at 4 times the price.

Buys the BOD time and pays for their salaries for the next 12 months i suppose.

Difficult to see any positives here

Unfortunately the predicted heavily discounted placing has now occurred. It appears as the company is loss making most of this money will be used for working capital (i.e keeping the lights on) as was the previous £765k raised only in Dec 2023.

Such as shame.

Currently DIS is valued at less than £1.5m (before the new money and shares hit), yet we do have c£5m of assets on the books even after excluding intangibles. We have £3m of this in the distillery which i still have high hopes for.

Are they selling enough though?

Q4 2023 to Q1 2024 increase was 1% - pathetic. Yes Q2 increase was a decent uptick but we need to see this continue.

If you have a CEO who doesn't seem to understand the business or focused on the details that's a concern IMHO.

Previous CEO proved this time and time again.

Europe sales are still low and should be 2 or 3 times higher now as Norgine have been selling for 5 or so years now.

These are the numbers!!

A reasonable presentation and clearly H1 figures are very impressive.

No new news, however, Playstack is going great guns and Oxygen is growing slowly and steady.

The one negative is of course Satago, however, this was the lowest revenue earner of the 3 so has limited impact (other than on the SP!).

Q and A didn't produce any surprises and they were very careful with what they could say regarding Lloyds.

They did confirm that they definitely had no plans to raise further money and in fact said they hopefully never would again.

Hopefully the SP can only go up from here

Have rewatched the presentation and in particular the Q&As. I know he is an interim CEO, but the answers were poor.

Regarding progress of sales in the UK (as Feraccru) he didn't appear to know whether the product was approved by the NHS and referred to Norgine. As it has been approved by the NHS for a number of years i find this strange. However, the NHS is a complex beast and each region and decide whether to use a drug or not and under what conditions. For example Nottingham, below, has decided that 2 oral alternatives must be tried first.

He states they are in constant dialogue with Norgine - i wonder what they talk about.

https://www.nottsapc.nhs.uk/media/4abbvywl/ferric-maltol-pathway.pdf

Other responses to questions re Greg's departure, directors not buying, rivals, insurance coverage and reason for delays in the paediatric study (we will get an update soon is not answering the question) were all poorly answered IMO.

Definitely looks like a big seller early doors, hopefully SP can start moving up now.

Although results are clearly good it will be interesting to listen to the presentation tomorrow as there are a few areas of concern.

Satago - in May we were told all areas of the business were performing robustly and then end of June revenue is down. As Lloyds only exited in July this cannot be blamed. Was the update in May a lie?

H1 produced an EBITDA of £2.9m yet Year end company are saying they will be EBITDA positive. Clearly it is likely Playstack won't perform quite as well as no new game is coming out until Nov 2024m however, this is a very underwhelming prediction.

The last acquisition was a small one in Jan 2024. Previous to that it was Dec 2022. As they now have £4m sitting in the bank i was hoping that the rate of acquisitions would speed up a little now that money from the Vigilant disposal is finally coming in (after essentially over generously selling the business for 10% upfront).

As acquisitions are a key strategy and the company has repeatedly told us there is a strong pipeline of opportunities hopefully we will get 2 or 3 in the next year (based on c£500k each).

From the recent RNS..."Croma's strategy remains focused on driving the core business as well as acquiring traditional locksmith stores and transforming them into modern security centres with stronger in-store product ranges and much greater profit potential. The Group boasts a strong balance sheet and there is a good pipeline of store acquisition opportunities to support the Group's ambitions to roll out its security centre network nationwide."

Just watched the IM presentation and in particular the Q&As (as most of it was already known).

Seems they are keen on acquisitions. Particularly like the EBITDA margin steadily increasing YoY - 12% to 19% and now 24.5%. That's the growth right there.

No big red flags for me

Agree - in May , see below, we had a great TU and the company is performing SIGNIFICANTLY above expectations. The SP rose to c90p on the back of this. We are now c50% below this. The Satago bad news appears to be overdone and hopefully Playstack performance has more than offset this.

"TruFin is pleased to announce that its trading performance for the 12 months ended 31 December 2024 is expected to be significantly ahead of market expectations. The Group is now expected to be EBITDA positive for the full year.

This outperformance has been driven by Playstack Ltd's launch of Balatro, their fastest selling PC / console game, and the newly launched Abiotic Factor, which surpassed 250,000 units sold in the first 8 days of sales.

The rest of the Group has also seen robust performance during the year to date."

When EMD was sold in Jan/Feb this year we were told that additional consideration of £8m to £10m was 'potentially' due based on the performance of the division going forward - see RNS excerpt below.

This has been largely ignored since, however, at a subsequent presentation the CEO confirmed this figure was both conservative and achievable.

I can't quite remember the payment structure, however, i have an idea that there would be annual payments based on the end of Sept performance (although i might be imagining this!).

Anyway, despite the recent uplift the current valuation is c£25m so getting a c30% to 40% cash injection would clearly be welcome and would have a positive impact on the SP. Even £2m this year (as less than a full year of trading) would be c10% of the SP.

I'm hoping there is some guidance of this figure in the 1/2 year financials later this month

" Additional contingent consideration, estimated by the Company to be in the range of £8 million to £10 million, subject to the Energy Management Division achieving strong growth in line with its business plan, linked to net cash generated by the Energy Management Division from completion to 30 September 2025 (the "Earnout Period")"

The 1% growth LFL this year is a concern, especially as it includes the summer months. I was hoping for c10%. a big concern IMHO

Someone's a bit overly sensitive - maybe sitting on a big loss?

The only reason for investing is to make money - do you agree?

If so it is a strange time to increase an already large investment with all the current uncertainty which can only have a negative impact on the SP.

Come back after the fundraise and let's see where the SP is. When a company announces in advance they have an 'immediate short term funding ' this is almost always a big negative - see POLX as a recent example