Member Info for shandypants2

Yep, proactive

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LDHjMHCv3FI

Just watched the video from yesterday. As per usual with STX the good news of a 20% prescription increase is offset by a poor NSP and another equity raise and a further 6 month delay in the break even.

The SP is now down c25% which shows the market isn't happy.

As per previous RNSs (e.g. lying about prescription numbers) there is also some confusion. How can prescriptions increase by 20% yet revenues only by 4%?

Looking at Q2 we were told there were 36,400 prescriptions at $171 and revenues of $6.9m. However, this equates to c$6.2m. Initially i thought Q2 might be including all revenues but re-reading it is clearly just Accrufer.

The explanation for Q3 that wholesalers were buying in bulk late June to ensure supplies of July 4th also sounds strange.

This is a prescription drug - surely there is no bulk discount offered. Also late buying in June would feed into Q2 numbers and not Q3.

More smoke and mirrors??

I didn't say it was a bad thing, just an observation.

Myers did acquire his main shareholding via the acquisition but has added to it a couple of times since (including at 12.85p) so he was clearly committed. He left in May 2023 (and EDM was sold in Jan 2024) after taking a similar role in an Australian company (and he is Australian).

My main point is as no longer a BOD unless he crosses a threshold we won't know if he's selling.

As i pointed out he has definitely sold c1m shares as his holding has reduced from 11.5% to 11.2%.

So i think the only thing we can conclude is that he was committed but we are unsure now and he is EAAS's largest shareholder. This creates some uncertainty going forward

JTS - "No incorrect, I follow 65 companies on AIM and many have seen a sell off due to the budget. But now they are beginning to recover as they have been oversold."

AIM has been in decline for the last 3 years- not sure how you can associate this decline with the budget. Big companies such as Banks and Oilers will be more impacts - Lloyds seems to be doing ok despite the rumours of a bank tax.

POLX need news it's as simple as that.

Nothing wrong with being positive but stop quoting revenues up 3000%. Firstly previous year revs were c£100k so were irrelevant. As revenues are still massively below costs and we are nowhere near breaking even your figure is meaningless.

Looking at the most recent accounts i note that a non exec Derek Myers resigned in May 2023 and is no longer on the BOD. He appears to have taken up a similar role soon after in an Australian company called Energy Action.

He is our largest shareholder - at the time of his departure i believe he owned 44.7m shares.

I am not suggesting there is anything untoward here, but it's a lot of shares to own in a company that you are no longer actively engaged with.

On the E Energy website it lists his current holding as 11.2% which equates to c43.3m shares.

So this would indicate that he has sold over 1m shares int he last year or so. Maybe this partly explains any pull back after a rise and the underwhelming SP.

Pretty sure there are also 42m warrants in existence after the debt financing in Nov 2022. Exercise price is 6p. If we ever get back to 10p plus expect these to be exercised.

So it's the govts fault for POLX share performance? Not only is this lazy it's untrue. The FTSE 100 and all share are both flat or up slightly since the election in early July. The AIM is slightly down but it has been pretty much been on a constant downward trend for the last 3 years.

The lack of news or new installations might be nearer the truth for POLX woes

He gets out on the quiet and then only mentions it months later.

POLX he got out after the delayed FDA approval.

Definitely not in XPF either although i think this was so he could invest elsewhere.

SO4 and GFIN both costs me loads - my own fault i know

Yes, terrible again (as expected) with over £30m of exceptional costs after £20m last year!

So where do we go from here? Excuses regarding the wet summer are already being wheeled out yet CEO still gets his huge salary (in 2022 he earned over £950k despite the company making c£2m profit and despite a disasterous 2023 he still earned over £600k).

In the outlook section he a starts by requesting govt action to improve the hospitality sector - well Rob that's your job.

Strategy over the last few years has been bizarre - spending a fortune during covid updating revolution bars when it was clear many weren't profitable and now over 1/3 have been closed (38 down to 24).

Then once the balance sheet was improved buying Peach using the overdraft facility was pure stupidity. It should have been a predominantly share purchase and if Peach owners didn't like it we should have walked away.

At least Luke Johnson as chair knows his onions

The CFO is a finance man - he has nothing to do with the sales side and will have had no influence on Q2 prescriptions or any other quarter.

His biggest contribution to date appears to be selling the milestone income we will receive from China at a 50% discount to ensure STX don't breach their covenant. Essentially he has bought the company time.

He had 21m shares as of July 2023 so has bought 7m extra in total (in 2 lots of 3m and now today's 4m announcement).

Now owns over 7% of the company. A very positive sign

Ok for clarity STX has not had 2 or 3 good quarters in a row as you seem to imply/challenge. 2023 results were well below the company's own targets (which were amended down in Sept 2023) so we can conclude that all quarters in 2023 were disappointing.

Q1 in 2024 increased by a pathetic 1%. Q2 was much better and HOPEFULLY the company can continue similar growth, however, there is very little past performance indicators to provide us with any confidence.

Nothing wrong with being positive but let's also be realistic too.

I have held this share since 2018 so have seen all the ups and downs

BBN - nothing wrong with being positive but you are sounding like a paid ramper.

In 2023 not only did they lie about actual sales volumes (we were never told there was a level of estimation being used) they missed their YE target by a country mile. For 2023 the prescriptions should have been 100k to 130k yet we sold 77k and that target was amended down in Sept 2023.

So whilst sales were increasing each quarter clearly the increase was nowhere near enough.

These are the facts. Now STX won't even tell shareholders the growth targets are they have never hit any target they have previously set themselves.

Q1 2024 was a shambles. Blaming it all on Texas seems a stretch too. Firstly Texas isn't even their biggest state so there were clearly other problems and if the sales strategy depends on a single person leaving, as appears to be the case in Texas then similar issues will probably reoccur.

As i said hopefully we are moving in the right direction but past performance is not a good indicator

The recent SP increase is encouraging as we approach Q3 numbers. Whilst i agree we are in a better position and the cash breakeven/profit point in Q2 2025 is critical and will have a massive impact on the SP STX has rarely had 2 or 3 good quarters in a row. Let's hope lessons have been learnt and the positive momentum is maintained

In terms of the BOD, one of the issues is that other that the CEO all appear to be part time. Whilst this keeps costs down it does allow O'Hara to essentially do what he wants. The RNS's are clearly written by him and appears to have little input from the Finance Director, hence the vague numbers.

Even in the annual report the Directors report is written by the CEO, which i have never seen before.

O'Hara isn't paid a silly salary but at c£150k is still enough to live comfortably and he has over 10m shares.

The his way or no way approach has been going on for years and i can't see sufficient governance in place to see this changing any time soon.

I also note that £153k was paid as a termination fee to the Director who left last year.

Yep, loads of strategic progress yet revenues remain very low and are going in the wrong direction. Another placing/sell of shares to essentially keep the lights on.

Rinse and repeat really.

The products seem great and should be contributing to the obesity crisis and the current focus on gut health , yet it's jam tomorrow yet again.

One day Rodders, one day

1GW - good question (and ignore the tw at).

Re available cash i would take a simple current net asset figure which stands at c£21m (57.8m less 36m).

Assuming they would want to keep at least £10m for working capital fluctuations etc i suspect any acquisition will be a max of £10m.

In terms of the impact of revenue if we buy it in say 2026, by 2028 hopefully revenues will be a lot higher e.g. by offering complementary services etc.

I also think our chairman is a master at acquisitions so i would not be surprised if he identified a struggling company with cashflow issues and bolted in on - after all both the original HVO and OO were quite cheap purchases.

Copied from ADVFN (thanks) - says Balatro earning Tru c$100k per day. Won't last for ever but great effort.

Balatro mobile hits $500k in five days, tops paid game charts

By Neil Long / 1st October 2024

Balatro’s mobile launch has already earned indie developer LocalThunk and publisher Playstack over $500k, according to Appmagic estimates.

The hit poker roguelike was released on iOS and Android on September 26 as a $9.99 premium game. At the time of writing, it is top of the iOS and Android paid game charts – and ahead of perennial leader Minecraft – in many major western markets including the US, Australia, Canada, UK, France and Germany.

Appmagic estimates the game has now generated over $550k for publisher Playstack and developer LocalThunk, a figure which does not include Apple and Google’s 30% cut. Some rough calculations therefore place total gross spend on mobile platforms to date at over $710k, meaning it has been downloaded around 71k times in the five days it has been on sale.

Cut another way, Balatro mobile has been earning PlayStack and LocalThunk about $100k per day so far. And that’s not including earnings from the Apple Arcade edition.

Balatro+, the Arcade edition of the game, is number one in Apple’s ‘Top Arcade Games’ UK chart at the time of writing, ahead of Football Manager Touch and Solitaire.

From presentation today - Q&A confirmed 2 payment points, end of Sept 2024 and 2025. Buyer has 3 months to collate accounts and provide EAAS with details to review. So hopefully an announcement is Jan 2025 and payment in Feb 2025. Not expecting a huge amount in 2024 as this is based on c6 months trading, however, even a couple of million extra revenue is c10% onto the current market cap.

Thanks for that, it's useful but i was hoping for some more detail. I was hoping the broker might adjust 2024 earnings based on H1s great performance. £38m seems very underwhelming as £25m has already been recorded for H1.

EBITDA positive is also pretty undemanding based on H1. Would love to see a small PBT at YE.

Balatro is going from strength to strength. Mobile downloads are £9.99, however after VAT etc i'm guessing TRU only get a few quid per download.

However, this will add up over time and will go straight tot he bottom line now development costs have been paid for

Report much as expected. Q3 has banked £9m rev so a repeat in Q4 will get us to YE numbers, however, they have already put a caveat in that some of the Q4 contracts might get delayed. I would not be surprised if YE comes in maybe £22 to £23m c 10 to 15% below estimates due to these delays (so Q1 2025 should be improved).

Slight concern that cash is only c£5m despite the EMD sale - however, looking at cashflow c£10m of this reduction is due to increases/decreases in accounts payable and receivable so hopefully just a timing issue.