Member Info for shamI89

Market is worried about ceetain issues, company stated that it would generate significant cash flow , figure was around 250 millions I believe, then they gave the second profit warning and third profit warning means they would generate 250 millions negative cash flow.Market is worried about level of debt and secondly company is breaching convenants.Bondholders are not going to take chances on these clowns!

Sidara has decided to make a move on the basis that company is in need of money so a low ball offer will be accepted, market believes offer is around 40!

Funny thing is they are talking to bondholders regarding "refinancing" and icecool thinks market has nothing to worry about.Siadara walks away and refinancing is on the cards!

Order book means nothing, look at Petrofac it has 6b orderbook but it has wiped out shareholders not so long ago.

Will do,I am 90% confifent that they will walk away and that leaves company in a position where it will need to raise money to strengthen its financial position.

Never lies if market ever believed that a 80p bid was being prepared shares wont be trading at 30

As I said equity has some value if Sidara goes ahead with bid, if it walks away than there is no value left for equity holders as bondholders/lenders would want company to raise money before agreeing to any refinancing.Sidara is only interested as some divisions overlap and they can create synergies to gain maximum value.Rest of divisions will be sold to pay off debt.

You do have some people here who think bondholders dont exist.I talked to some people here yesterday and it looks like some of them dont even understand bssic concepts like this.That is why I am using word lenders

With due respect these disposals would only cover day to day running costs, they need to do more to satisfy bondholders and there is no way bondholders would let it continue running like this.Secondly in this environment they can only offload profit-making divisions and that approach has hardly worked in most of cases.This company has been around for sometime so it has good will value too but management seems to be out of depth.Whichever way you look at it there is a cash crisis looming and lenders are in-charge now.

So expect to hear from them tomorrow once everyone is bsck after Eid holidays.Debt to equity swap/rights issue would wipe out shareholders.I cant see any investment case before that.

Sidara can take over company in its current form or it can wait for lenders to strengthen balance sheet through refinancing and then make a move.The way I see it they wont want to take over a company with legacy issues and weak balance sheet.Third option is lenders call in debt and put company into administration to recoup their money.On the flip side refinancing would give management a better chance to turn things around and create some value for shareholders.

Sidara would wait on a side,while gets refinancing done and would then make a move if it ever was to make one.As harsh as it sounds lenders are calling the shots now.Debt to equity swap or rights issue take your pick!

However administration would be ideal for Sidara as they can pick up these assets without taking on debt.

If they put this company into administration and that would mean that administratots would sell assets and proceeds would be used to pay off lenders first and left over would be distributed among shareholders.For argument's sake lets say total debt is 1.2 billions and assets did not fetch 1.2 bilions that means that there will be no money left for shareholders.

Why are they in breach of convenants though?That parametre is used to measure financial strength of a company to pay off debt.

On a positive note Sidara was interested in this company because I do believe that it spotted some synergies and it believes some divisions can be turned around.However right now it would walk away and let things unfold.

Hahahaha what can I say, pointless to argue with someone who does not even understand simple concept of debt/bonds.Company is in discussions with "lenders" regarding refinancing but our phanton reckons they dont need to worry about debt as it matures in October 2026.However company is in breach of convensnts but icecool thinks market should ignore that.Company has changed its forecasts three times but icecool is confident.Worst of all Sidara would pay 2 billions for a company and take on 1.2 billion debt for a loss-making buisness.I guess next he wants us to believe that pigs fly!

I feel sorry for icecool, he has been handed his backside to him by market.He really thought that he can bs his way out of this trade but.........Situation is getting worst after every update.......

There is some interesting article in Investor chronicle today and Sidara is more likely to walk away!

Oh dear looks like Icecool does not understand debt/bonds concept.

Hahahaha not "fud" you need to familiarise yourself with certain things.Lets see who is right here as the way I see it shareholders can lose everthing and there is limited upside.Bondholders would determine if there is any value left for shareholders.Another possible scenario would have been company selling assets to avoid debt to equity swap however company is selling assets to fund administration costs as company is not generating any money this year.