Member Info for shamI89

I do think Coldspy got in for a quick trade and got caught. Then he foolishly thought he can get out of this through mindless ramping and rest is history. I took no delight in people losing money but Coldspy deserved it as he accused me of being all sort of things. Some people can't be helped sadly.

Equity is worthless, we have quite a few trapped traders as well who would anything to pump and dump it.

Granting a waiver for extra 5 millions is not practically applicable as company does not have this sort of money. Even the cash balance is much lower than previously reported level I believe. Bondholders won't mind granting waiver if they are getting paid but not other way around.In my opinion there is 50% chance that a waiver will be granted as these assets are worthless and bondholders get nothing if they seize control. Having said that they would want to ring fence finances as won't let these lot burn through existing cash reserves so 50% chance of debt to equity swap. There is no way this company can pay off debt or even coupon now as there is no cash flow.

There is no such thing as "binary bet" I am afraid. There are two possible scenarios equity raise or debt to equity swap and both of these lead to equity wipe-out. It will be interesting to see what bondholders do as they can grant a waiver but problem is with halving production there is no money coming in and there is a good chance company would go through its dwindling cash reserves.

I wish it was that simple, company was not going to be profitable this year and production has halved right now. It had 60 millions in bank 6 months ago and that has halved as well. If it had 20 millions to pay, I would say yes something can be worked out. But total debt is ballooning, I did say equity is worthless three months ago and took a lot of abuse from Coldspy and rest of ramping crew. Today it is 90% certainty and there is 100% certainty that some sort of refinancing is on the cards which can wipe out equity holders.

"Genuine investors" you were meant to say traders who got in for a quick trade and got stuck. Perhaps it is always prudent to go through balance sheet and then make a decision. As sometimes mindless ramping don't work.

I do think it is game-over as far as financial side of things stand. However can't see bondholders putting it into administration yet as these assets are worthless and they won't get anything back if they flog assets right now. A new drill is on the horizon and debt to equity swap too.

Sadly problem lies with Geography, as every well they have drilled has gone down same route. They drill a well give an upbeat estimate, well starts experiencing "technical issues", production decreases and well is shut. It has to be hell a lot of coincidence that every Single well has gone down that route. I dont think company is generating any free cash flow.

As I suspect H2 is having technical issues, production decline is terminal and amazingly it is following the pattern of previous wells which have been shut.

Their liabilities have increased and income has fallen. Good or bad for shareholders that bondholders are in same position as shareholders. These assets are worthless and only way bondholders can recoup their money is through increasing production. So a new well is on the cards but that will require 15 millions. They can enforce D4E swap or raise it through placing and none of that bodes well for existing shareholders. Bondholders would waive coupon payment as they have no other option but shareholders would be diluted heavily.

Ignoring that H1 production is only profitable at certain price due to water treatment. But all of this is useless if H2 production keeps on falling and that is what has happened here. Production has effectively halved and so has revenue and that is not good position to be in.

Any new drill is likely to cost 10/15 millions and they don't simply don't have that sort of money. Equity is worthless, bondholders would grant a waiver and speculative private investor's money would fund next drill.

Not that simple I am afraid, we had some transactions where no historical losses were carried forward. However it is not about paying 5 millions for this bondholders need paying too and who would pay £120 millions for this company? Production can fall further as "natural decline rate" cited by company has already reduced it by more than 50% in three months. If these assets were worth anything bondholders would have put this company into administration and recouped their money. A new drill is on the cards and speculative retail money would find this drill.

These losses can be used to offset any tax on profits, no good if a profit can't be made.

Then tell me why are they struggling to pay off interest let alone any debt. Why is production falling? H2 was meant to be producing 41 mscfd and current rate is less than half of that. In fact it has been story with every well they have drilled, they drill a well and give upbeat production rate. Good so far then well starts experiencing "technical issues", remedial work is carried out and then water-cut increases and production decreases and well is shut.

There is no such a thing as takeover as any company taking over would have to pay 100 millions to bondholders first and I can't see that happening. I do think that a waiver would be granted as if bondholders saw anything in these assets they would have put it into administration but current assets are worthless. There will be a new drill somewhere along.

Expect them to come up with all sort of bs to lure others in and this share would be heavily traded until uncertainty is removed. Market is crazy at the minute.

I don't think bondholders would pull the plug yet, in my opinion these assets are worthless and bondholders would only recover the fraction of their money back if it enters administration right now. A new well has to be drilled and will be funded by mug punters.

Off course it can survive and about time you start pumping it for your 10%.

I agree Dunderhead, but he can cause serious damage to management on his own. I am guessing he is too busy tracking them down to post on this bb!