RE: Hmm18 Sep 2024 15:34
Hi Jumbo
I am still trying to understand your logic here. So its currently 176p at time off writing and has been hovering between 175p-177p this week, so very low volatility in share price movement. A drop to 160s indicates a drop between 4% to 10%. Please answer these following questions (just to let you know I am an actuary so my understanding of how an insurer operates is very good).
1. Why is DLG more exposed to a fall than any other UK stock, are you expecting the whole UK market to fall between 4% and 10%?
2. DLG has a very small portfolio in equities (less than 1%), so I cant see its coverage ratio on SII being affected by changes in stock market, please enlighten me if it does.
3. All the rest of their portfolio is made of short term debt instruments and cash equivalent assets (and very small property portfolio), these are usually well hedged for any changes in interest rates, again please explain why this wouldn't be the case.
4. Any debt it has, is from the UK money markets, why would change in US Fed rates effect it more than the change that BOE will announce tomorrow afternoon?
5. How does DLG exposed to financial and economic conditions of the USA, its selling its products to the UK market only, so not exposed to currency, imports/exports demands etc, unlike most of FTSE like BP, Shell, Astazenca, BAT, Anglo Am, GSK, Barclays, ...... Again any indication where UK economy is going as announced by Andrew Bailey tomorrow afternoon will have more of an impact, if it fall from 12pm tomorrow its because of that not Fed cuts. Fed's cut will have minimal impact on DLG first thing tomorrow morning, nowhere near 4%-10% drop.
6. We have never been in a environment for 16 years to know what impact a Fed cut has on DLG, please can you let me know what the impact was on DLG when a previous Fed cut was announced?
7.DLG doesn't even have a direct competitor except admiral, all the other insurer like Aviva are skewed toward life insurance etc, whose cover ratio can be impacted by changes in interest rates, stock markets, FX rates if not well hedged. Are you expecting Admiral to also drop for the same amount, if not then why single out DLG?
8. DLG profits are more impacted how well they have priced, underwritten, handle claims and minimised risk, amount of profit margin when setting premiums, goodwill (hence lapse rates and returning customers), it's Green Flag business, etc. These do not have direct exposure to Fed cuts and will be very minimal. please explain why otherwise?
9. Reading you other post except when DLG announced the results, you sound like a shorter, trying to scare other investors etc. This isnt a US tech stock like NVIDIA where future yield outlooks can effect the discounting of share prices by a lot, please explain yourself why we will get a 4-10% drop tomorrow morning?
Bottom line, if any impact we see tomorrow will be because of comments delivered by Andrew Bailey after lunch and not in the morning due to Fed rate