Member Info for Serif

With oil at over $48 for our current production, current cost cutting measures (50%BOD pay cuts and no office overhead), a 4 week delay on clear criteria can’t lead to that large a shortfall - in fact revenue/overheads expenditure must surely be close to balance? Seems unlikely that any measures to cover finances needs to be that large scale or damaging to SP. Can’t see why the BOD would want to take that risk so close to achieving their new revenue stream.

With oil over $48 worth looking back at the broker note about Wressle potential impact, posted here by Beacon on 9th June. Two comments in particular:
“It will also boost FY2001 cash flow materially - we estimate by £1.6m even at US$40 bbl Brent”. We are now at a 20% higher oil price - so now this would be over £1.9m a year.
“In our opinion, the current share price is entirely underpinned by Europa’s UK producing assets alone at $50 bbl Brent, and has nothing in it for Wressle, let alone Inishkea.” At the time the SP stood at 1.10 - so if Wressle flows close to expectations there should be room for growth here!

Thanks for doing the permit check - seemed an unlikely issue to emerge at this stage.
Think the picture was taken sometime last week, so not showing all the equipment to arrive. There certainly appear to be a number of concrete plinths available for more equipment to be installed.

@copper - let’s hope so. All being well from December Wressle should be the opportunity to freshen things up here and give us a much better 2021.

Rns of 20th July.

To be fair I think the Board have now taken a 50% pay cut. Although it’s only really a pay cut if they are still working 100% flat out for the money and not just sitting waiting for something to happen.

Tac, in fact all sells have been in the 1-1.02 range. Anything above that from 1.039 upwards have been buys - so pretty balanced overall.

All the planning conditions required to install the oil storage tanks and start production were laid out exhaustively in the report of the last planning inquiry. Egdon (not EOG) have been working through these systematically.

Confirmation from Egdon on Twitter of making good progress here - “storage tanks installed and site electrics progressing well”.

Yes and if we get the decent flow numbers this share should really start to rebuild. Maybe not on day 1 - Aim is too unpredictable for that and maybe too many people looking to short term trade - but the greatly increased revenue stream should underpin this share month after month, particularly if the management can maintain their current cost controls.

@Tovoc. Went back to original Egdon 2015 RNSs cos I was unclear too. Still not 100%, but my understanding is that 500 is an estimate and they have gone with this for planning. At the time they seem to have had “skin problems” which restricted actual flow to below this figure, but 500 was the reservoir engineers calculation on what they had seen (and the flow even could be higher). The skin problem was assessed as avoidable with the right techniques - and these are planned in current subsurface works. The higher figure of 710 which people quote seems to be a figure which includes the other 2 reservoirs not being tapped by the current operation - but potentially available for future development.

Just relistened to shareholder conference call (still available on YouTube). Clearly stated by Roberto and the Chairman that scheduled plans were to finish reprocessing and get unidentified oil compared to hot shale source oil by end of October - in order to hold a technical committee meeting with etap in early November. So results should now be in (this looks to be largely deskwork so shouldn’t be too Covid limited) and perhaps waiting on etap meeting. Would be good to get an update next week, whatever they have found out.

As I see it Simon set out 3 risks around Wressle for EOG. One -another oil price crash - we seem ok with that as we are back in the $40s - so that’s a tick. Two timing - if delayed into next year - looks like we are on schedule for H2 - so tick for that too. Just leaves production rates as the final risk - 500 is the calculated figure given based on previous tests on the Ashover Grit reservoir, but no one can know for sure until it actually flows again after the subsurface works - could be a little more or less. Suspect that on a 30% share anywhere 400-500 should be good enough to “transform our finances”, but 300 range would be very disappointing - although even that would still double our current production.

Reports on Twitter of oil tanks being delivered today at Wressle and more equipment coming tomorrow. Seem to be moving into the final preparation phase. So looking good for H2 production.

I’d be happy just to know if we have a chemical match with the “hot shale” oil at this stage - this is the potentially “transformational” news for this already promising licence. Detailed follow up plans can follow when circumstances allow.

@Copperpot, great link - that looks like real movement to me. It’s both in the Miri area which I think is of interest to us and it says that it enables them to work with others to explore for more oil and gas. Hopefully that will be the green light for UPL and our local partners.

Not much given away in terms of what could be coming up. Scraps were: expect the key Tunisian update in the “near term” and it is described as “promising”, the Sarawak/Brunei interests are “contiguous”, Sarawak is looking more optimistic (but still unclear what needs to be agreed with Petronas), CP role still unclear to me - is it business development beyond these projects because there is a lot to get on with and deliver here already. Anything else?

Media button on Upl website has gone missing for over a week. Not sure if this is part of the ongoing website revamp, but anyone wanting to see the last conference for investors (worth a watch) will now need to use the link provided by Amnesic below.

Annual report is due this week or next which will be a great opportunity to update on plans and progress in Brunei/Sarawak (e.g. what still has to happen in S for licences to get issued?) - and if there is good news about Roberto’s oil in Tunisia we were promised an update after ETAP meeting end October/early Nov. So perhaps there will be some fresh material for a revamped media section?

Agree that its encouraging that there is some sign of a debate around this issue. But in a coalition no one will want to upset the Greens unless they have to - so something will have to force the issue onto the Gov agenda to get it addressed (guessing a financial or energy crisis). In the meantime suspect the Greens current policy is to agree nothing in the hopes that people will give up because the delays and costs become too uncertain. Ryan made pretty clear in a recent interview that he is hoping to scare investors off by signalling lack of Gov support (I think this came up specifically re LNG terminals). That’s why I think Eog do need to address the reality of the political challenges, and do something to make Inishkea offer more in terms of carbon neutral/capture/renewables to make it the “easy” option for politicians to sign off when the crisis comes.

Might be nice to hear that from DCCAE Minister Ryan (leader of the Green Party) as well as a local FF councillor?