Member Info for Serif

Presumably there are a lot of new investors who are already sitting on a good profit. They have only seen the SP rise - it drops a little and in reaction a few sell to lock in their profits. It’s still higher than it started yesterday and nothing has changed in terms of positive pressures/expected news.

Irish Gov probably need to signal movement for the farmin to happen - but that is looking more likely as they will have to address the gas shortfall sooner rather than later now with the EUs position on Russian gas - it’s a hot topic. When it does I suspect things will move extremely quickly - and with the addition of Edge licence we have twice the acreage in the area which should significantly increase the value well beyond any existing broker notes.

GP I am with you on being cautious at this stage, as you say it is still an excellent income over several years and if it’s comes out higher than this that’s would be a great upside.

A minor comment on your calculations - from the last UJO rns it seems that they could flow flexibly in the 600s and 700s. If they have this capacity could they not target 650 bopd but work on the equivalent of 100% efficiency by flowing slightly more at times and storing on site to cover downtime?

Had missed these comments made today by MasterInvestor who recommended EOG a month ago:

“Europa Oil and Gas (Holdings) (LON:EOG) – This UK oil and gas exploration, development and production group has been a wonderful performer.
Its shares have risen extremely well in the last month, up from 1.57p to 3.08p at one stage.
Last night they closed at 2.95p on more than doubled dealings above its average daily volumes. That is up nearly 88% in the last thirty one days.
With the way the oil and gas prices are moving I would suggest holders should sit very tight – they could even double from here”

That would take us to a very acceptable 6p.

Looks to me like a battle between:
Bears taking profit from the week v Bulls taking position for a Wressle announcement next week!

If we close above 3p I think ZakMir was saying next target was 4.5 in what he described as “a rather wide channel”.

Picked up this reference from PRD site to major Israeli oil company attracted to getting in on Moroccan licence opportunities.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/israels-newmed-energy-looks-enter-moroccan-market-2022-02-22/

If they are thinking like this how many others may be looking long and hard at Morocco. Could our white elephant turn into a golden goose as well???

Good. But I notice all these articles seem to miss the vital point on gas pricing. The Green argument is that because it is sold at international prices it is just as expensive to buy indigenous gas and so not worth doing. This argument deliberately ignores the huge tax take of the Government from such production/sales which then enables them to mitigate such costs for local consumers.

For those of us who have been stuck so long in the 1’s reaching 3p feels like giddy heights!

But if you look back, this is where we were after the Wressle planning appeal and before the pandemic struck. Since then on the downside we have had a 20% dilution, but on the upside we have the massively successful Wressle producing oil and gas, Oil is close to $100 a barrel and looking strong long term, and gas now commands a price and strategic premium which brings Inishkea and Edge right back into play. So with demand returning to pre-pandemic levels there should be plenty of potential headroom here.

Yes probably a good day to add in hindsight. The 800k sale first thing seemed to flatten the price today, but we stayed pretty much in the 2.4-2.7 range with a healthy 4.5m shares traded. Seems a good platform for future movement. Still have to pinch myself a bit when comparing a “dull day like today” compared with where we were just a couple of months ago!

10 weeks this Thursday since last Wressle site update from EDR. We know they have been doing lots of work on gas handling upgrades, including apparently building a new plinth for presumed gas to power unit at the start of last week. UJO RNS also confirmed today that upgrades were progressing well. I would imagine that we would get an update once the gas unit is in as a significant site milestone - and based on the reported works last week - perhaps as early as this week or next?

@Glasgowpunter. Don’t remember the 2p options, but they have options at above 2.46p for 30 days, as compensation for reducing salaries during Covid, if I recall right,

@OTF - haha! And now it’s in the heading of course.

@AJJ55. Personally think that all Aim companies carry at least a 10% risk of a placing at any time- so you can never say never! But cannot think of a time when a placing has looked less likely to me than now. Just compare the data from last year with now.

Then OP $65, Wressle had started to flow but probably only c100 bopd, in debt to Non-Exec for c£250k, virtual no cash left, Morocco required more work to complete for farm out, Wressle required more work and money to get flowing and the outcome of any PS was unknown so a sidetrack might be necessary, Ireland in coma.
Now OP $95, Wressle flowing somewhere between 600-1200bopd and gas revenue to be had in addition, no debt, profits retained likely £2m and rising significantly each week, Morocco work complete and awaiting response on farmout, Wressle first reservoir works nearing completion, Ireland hotting up politically re gas supplies.

But this is Aim - so everyone needs to make their own judgements on investment strategy as IMO sentiment can take an SP much higher or lower than the facts seem to support.

MMs seem to have their £500 internet buying limit in place again this morning - they did this last Thursday which seemed to limit activity for much of the day until the SP suddenly shot up later on.

Exactly 6 months ago today the coiled tubing operations were completed at Wressle and the well began quickly to flow at over 500bopd as it started to clean up. That’s a lot of revenue we have acquired over these past months - all the more so when you read in the RNS at that time that the income would be transformational for the company especially as oil had now risen significantly to $65 a barrel!!

@Tacuma. Totally agree and from the presentation Vermillion make clear that they see European gas as the big cash producer for them. I do feel we are closer to getting the Corrib deal up and running than we have been since the last deal collapsed with the major companies withdrawing from Ireland in the face of the Gov intransigence. One signature and this share could get supercharged, any gas on the licences is now worth a huge amount more than last time - the Irish Gov mucking around could have helped us in the end.

I imagine the interests between Vermillion, Nephin and EOG are already clearly aligned as we would all obviously gain, but until Mr Ryan starts to use his little green pen again and signal that he will sign off permits, I don’t think we will get the value we want from any farmout of these licences. Once he does it will be open season and others will be interested too.

Current non-Wressle production is c75bopd.

It’s getting harder to work our profitability of Wressle as the original production ($9) costs and project breakeven cost (c$17.5) were based on modelling of a 500bopd oil flow. Now with higher flow rate, probably more oil recoverable, and gas revenue (at least reducing site running costs), all these costs should reduce, giving even greater upside profitability per barrel.

I suspect at the very least we may get a positive Wressle update next week, which combined with very high Oil Price is just turning into brilliant asset at a great time. This is beginning to look like a nice platform from which the SP can hopefully move forward when the news arrives and attracts wider interest.

And as someone said yesterday where Egdon go we tend to follow. Although it’s hard again today to buy EOG stock at the Ask in any quantity.