Member Info for Serendipidity

Every trade has a buyer and a seller.

Maybe research how a trade gets labelled as a buy or sell, it’s an algo that renders it fairly meaningless

Anyone know how these work? My platform doesn’t trade EUA so I bought EUH.F which is EUA on the Frankfurt exchange. It follows EUA price plus the FX difference but often with a delay due to low trading volume of EUH

When an offer comes I assume the offer price gets translated to GBP:EUR equivalent?

Anyone got experience of this?
Thanks

Sells v Buys

Wish I copied the explanation someone else posted explaining why this is nonsense. Every trade has a buyer and seller by definition. An algo applies a buy or sell label automatically based on whether the price was above (buy) or below (sell) the mid of the spread at the time of trade.

Seamus - that is not what he said, he said agreed a loan facility.

I agree with you that if we get all the things you mentioned that would be great news, in particular the “timeline to go to market”.

That is the announcement we are all waiting for, ie we will resume lending on XX

Hope so too, and a sensible target although would be good to consistently end the day above 10. 10.3-10.4 would be decent at end of week

Priv - it’s a guess but hardly a difficult thing to predict. Amigo borrow money and lend it out at much higher rates. So they will regularly be looking at the wholesale lending market to look for better opportunities. And they will be preparing for a hopeful resumption of lending in Q1 so will need something in place.

I suspect it won’t have a material impact on SP, arranging a facility is a good signal but means nothing if we haven’t progressed with FCA and got confirmation we can lend

* this stock

Morning

Yep was hopeful of 12p but now think 11p is more likely as we are struggling to stay above 10p despite all the good COVID news (not that those stock would benefit directly)

Spot on Mullet

If someone was looking to invest here, some sensible discussion about the risks and potential great rewards would make it attractive. Unsubstantiated ramping about “this is going to fly” or “20p this week” just put people off and make this look like a PnD share.

“Hopefully another 3-5% gain today” is more constructive

Thank you Shuggy

Thanks MM, bizarre isn’t it!

The share price has risen from 6p to 10p in a month, on the back of an encouraging refresh of the BOD, especially a decent CFO and an ex FCA guy, some small but encouraging share buys by the board and decent 1H report showing no increase in complaints provision.

We may creep up with general market sentiment but need something positive on complaints to jump up again, which I suspect will be in Jan/Feb time with Q3 results

Thank you

Cautiously optimistic here too sir

Out of curiosity, had I not dreamt up your answer ;) what’s your prediction for SP at end of the year?

good to finish above 10, and nice to se a little uptick at 4.30 rather than the usual drop

hi xel

Will always apologise if I have mis-spoken, and in this case I did. My apologies.

Got you confused with another posters tradeuk for some reason.

Brave? No just polite.
Delete your account? I think you may be taking this place a bit too seriously :)

anyway sorry again

Thanks for the feedback, only one person is acting like you describe. I hold shares and am as entitled to an opinion as you are.

Hi Vinson
"53m have been utilized already so that would leave cash of at least 159,1m complaint provision- 53m utilized = 106,1m for future complaints vs. 160m cash. So would still leave us with 53,9m cash"
Incorrect, the last balance sheet showed 159 of a provision liability v 160m cash. The 53 utilized would already have been removed from the cash and provision balances.

"The last report cleared that only about 60% are redressed by cash and the rest with loan adjustments"
Agreed, and this would have been allowed for in the provision assumption.

"New lending would generate new cash flow so the cash would still be in bank"
Correct, which is why I said ceterus paribas, ie all other things being equal. I agree that cash will also go up as old loans close out and get reapid.

What are people's views? (GCN especially if you read this)

My take:
Any incentive plan that has proper stretch targets is great news for SH.
Any plan needs to be properly anlaysed, at their worst the targets are too easy and the plan becomes a gauranteed bonus.

So looking at the details.
1. share award at 25p in 3 years time = not great, yes its 2.5x current but current SP is massively compromised by FCA/complaints issues, would have liked to see 40-50p
2. EPS target 4p/share, with 475m shares I make that £19M - laughable, and they get to remove impact of increase in complaints provision = truly pathetic
3. ATDR of 40p including dividends, at least its 40p, but its straight line up to 40p so pro rata, would have liked all or nothing
4. Non-financial measures - woolly at best, are we going to see the targets against whcih this is measured? "internal targets for corporate culture, conduct risk matters, diversity and inclusiveness and other ESG measures."

The fact the plan is in place and the company needs to survive and grow in the 3 years in order for directors to make a lot of money is overall good news. It also ties in the directors loyalty for 3 years. But not overly impressed by targets putting it mildly.

We have had good news, which is why the share is at 10p not 8p.

The director buys are good news, but not material enough to have proper skin in the game (i.e. at least more than me!)

A good list if very biased (how many strengths vs weaknesses?)

Some strengths are misleading:

1. The share purchases are symbolic only, I own more shares than most of them and AMGO is only 1 of the 10 shares I hold, so celebrating a bare minumum of skin in the game is not a strength, arguably ita weakness until they each hold c.1m shares and have proper risk

2. You cant have both cash of £160M and compaint provision of £159M as strengths!! One is liability on the BS one is an asset. If the provison is accurate (and we hope it is) once all paid out the provison and the cash will be zero, ceteris paribus

3. Net borrowing will fall, its not a strength, its a direct result of us not lending - current loans closing and not being replced. We wll want this reversed and net borrowing to increase!!

It's a good list of current issues but taking out the bias some of the items should be removed from strengths

* hope others read