Member Info for senseman

Thanks Dive - concurs exactly with my brain autogyro which says we may even reach Dec 26 with P6 still online. You make good point that even if TOTAL deal starts end April/start May, it depends on when TOTAL oils/gases are offloaded/credited to Prax account as to whether we see cash credited to Sept DCU, or not till March 26 DCU. For many DCU cashflow is crucial hence Sept DCU 0.8p better than 0.5p, with March 26 DCU being 1.0p rather than 1.3p: rather than Sept DCU being 0.5p & March 26 DCU being 1.6p. For the moment It' remains prayer mats out that P6 continues being Olympic class backstop and TOTAL deal starts end April/early May.

And Brent today 74.5p from early March 69p low. Was circa 72p on 27 Feb part-offload day. With only 1 full and 1 part offloads in the kitty by end June we're looking at circa 5p and bits per DCU in Sept from P6 alone. Need TOTAL deal to start late April/early May to contribute 2 months Total cash to make Sept DCU decent. As soon as anyone gets info, do post. Dive or Laser - from earlier calcs, with all provisos understood, what's best back of envelope guesstimate of how much 2 months TOTAL cash would contribute to Sept DCU? A good aspect of P6 continuing Olympian production & Brent stabilising is staving off Prax/Bluewater dropping the 6 months notice death sentence on P6

Machin - thanks for kind sentiment 26.03. Sadly, remain on financial death row facing execution, hugely stressful makes life daily grey. Am minded March 27 post final DCU payment, when certain ethical loyalties cease & can't be accused of forum-hogging, to post warts & all series titled 'senseman's memoirs', likely 3 instalments titled i) 'How & why PIs failed to easily stop HUR/Prax sale & threw away 20p/30p/40p sunny uplands, ii) 'Heroes & Betrayers', iii) 'Human Nature'. Will be riveting read. Rhetorical question - do you think will be appreciated? Readers generally - give the recommend a tick if you would like me post such in March 27.

First bit of minor good luck going our way for a while - 3 offloads banked rather than 2. Unless my maths wrong sees us at 8.4/8.5p per share banked. Leaving us needing 4p p.sh from last four DCU payments, ie: 1p each DCU payment, to reach the 12.5p max. Dive cogently cited that, with P6 production & Brent at risk of declining & P6 always under a 6 month death sentence, the Prax new producer deal kicking in is crucial. Should it do, we are likely home and dry for 12.5p, especially as new producer is mostly gas not oil, gas prices rising, and for caution Dive's figures rely on low gas price. But my ass twitches whenever time targets slip and already new producer start target 2025 Q1 has passed/been broken. So my eyes fixed on whether it starts late April/early May as currently mooted. By the way - even if Prax new producer deal goes tits up, I still see P6, for various reasons, as good for another 1p-2p p.sh before Dec 26 cutoff date.

Thanks Dive. We're all hoping. Going forward, after hitting $69 Brent has thankfully stabilised at $70-$71 last 10 days, no crash to $60. With Russian asset Trump doing all he can to rescue Putin the odds currently against Trump crashing the oil price to weaken Russia.

Thanks. so just 6 months extra P6 production till feb 26 may give another say 0.5p and lift us to 12.5p - with all the caveats inbuilt to dive's calcs etc?

Corry - could you enlighten me? For P6 to cease producing Aug 25 , 6mths notice would have had to be given by end Feb 25? And it hasn't been, correct? Or put another way - if for example notice was given June 25, P6 end would be Dec 25? etc etc

Corry - beautifully & comprehensively precised. thanks. can't fault it. means if total deal kicks in 1st may as dive postulates and all hope, and all else being equal, all that is needed for a fighting chance of seeing 12.5p will be P6 running for 6 months beyond aug 25. in any event 12.1p would be a good safety net. prayer mats out for total deal to start and a delay in both prax & bluewater invoking the 6 month termination process.

Laser - meaning that to date we have received circa 8.2p p.sh?

Dive - thanks from many - most helpful yardstick which must have taken a fair while to calc. Can anyone chip in with the total p.sh we've received to date (sale sum + DCUs) so the enthusiasts can work out how near 12.5p we may get, taking into account likely well 6 monies?

Brent has worryingly dropped to $69 - £70

Broomtree - i suggest YET AGAIN we leave the handbags till quieter times. you started it (you always do) by telling me to shut it when i posted re ukraine. i suggest we both leave each other be

Thanks dive. like many others i am getting edgy re if and when it starts as the time window for it to help us starts shortening. 2025 H1 is already a possible 3 month drift from 2025 Q1. it's keep praying time again. if anyone gets any info, do post it

Broomtree - it's newsflow time so i suggest you observe protocol and put your handbag back in the closet till it ends. as for your content - others will remember vividly the spat you caused by denigrating my comment that ukraine would fight and eventually succeed - on the basis that you the ex army man knew 10 times more than i an that Ukraine should lay down arms and surrender. i have been proven correct, you wrong. if it wasn't march 22 it would be late feb or very early april - but it's there. carry on with the handbagging and in a few weeks time when newsflow stops i'll dig out and repost it and embarrass you. you decide.

Thanks laser for info on t'other thread. methinks also drop likely a one off for whatever reason. we'll see. best info we need currently is definite info re if and when total deal starts and provides dcu protection. any offers?

About 5

Decline to 5030 sudden significant and unsettling. anything happened which could explain and indicate it's temporary blip?

Broomtree - i am apolitical., save in extremis when necessary. and i do not rant. the long held consensus of this and other intelligent forums is to, in quiet 'no news' times, allow comment on other issues - humourous or serious, provided that the forum purpose is not disrupted when essential news flows. from that tolerance this forum's zenith was when, even in HUR's darkest hours, numerous members entertained & informed others via their 'hinterland'. I have not overstepped that mark. it is also clear that a fair proportion of members appreciate my erudite comment on the world's foremost current pressing issue. or are you truly so obtuse and zealous, and so focused on personal animosity?

you on numerous occasion posted on non-forum topics on this and other forums you inhabit, without censure. even if it was drivel. eg, in march 2022 you posted here that ukraine would lose within weeks, hence it should surrender forthwith. by that yardstick ukraine would now be integrated into russia, with russia's army & wealth remaining intact, and russia would currently be attacking one of the Baltics (NATO) & the world be on the verge of WW3. in contrast, i posted that Ukraine would prove Putin's nemisis, that it would fight, survive and in due course prosper.

dive today signals an imminent HUR news flow hence, following protocol i will now constructively, as ever, engage with that. i suggest you do likewise. by the way - when was the last time you posted any CONSTRUCTIVE comment? if you wish to attack me personally i suggest you desist until the imminent news flow passes. after which do continue - and i will be happy to embarrass you further.

ps. dive - as ever, looking forward to updates

The 'Wisdom of Solomon' way to free Ukraine from Trump's extortion and hasten the war's end is to do what Bill Browder, driver of the Global Magnitsky Act (allowing countries to seize Russian private & state assets) proposes, ie: European governments give Ukraine the $300 billion Russian money held in European banks. Ukraine could then buy all the weapons it needs to finish the job from US & other countries & use them unrestricted. Within months both Russian army & economy would collapse - war over. Previously bankers' resistance prevented this - banks make $6 billion p.a lending this money out. It may now occur since shocked European leaders in Munich witnessed Trump throwing both Ukraine & Europe under the bus, as one way or t'other it will limit sums European leaders need to seek from taxpayers. This would pee Trump off - he would be humiliated and his vain-glory attempt to win a Nobel Peace Prize likely fail.

To illustrate how Trump's 'disinformation modus operandi matches Putin's - Trump cites $500 billion 'owed and payable' by Ukraine for help already given. Fact - US has 'given' $160 billion, principally via outdated weapons stockpiled in Arizona deserts which would never otherwise be used. also US accounting differs from European accounting - it cites 'replacement as new' costs when calculating'. $160 billion is really $80 billion tops. As the weapons would otherwise rust and rot, the true net cost to USA for admin, delivery & some cash is $40 billion tops. In contrast - Europe has coughed up $180 billion mostly hard cash to fund the Ukrainian economy. The short Munich interview below with Browder is excellent, with the $300 billion issue from 3min 50secs on. The second link is Bernie Sanders recent stunning speech to US Senate on Trump & oligarchs Musk,Zuckenberg Bezos turning US into authoritarian dictatorship.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cFICzYxGoA&t=16s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQXl5JZG-C8

Methinks that both Putin & Trump will meet reality checks. Russia is on it's knees, Trump is overreaching. The Baltics, Nordics & Poland are rock solid, and though it will take a few months, UK France Germany & Italy will solidify. Putin signed Russia's death knell in Feb 22 and won't recover within 50 yrs. Ukraine will survive & prosper.