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Have been told by reliable source that DCU 17% share of each offload @ at $78/80 oil = 7 million (I assume dollars).
Which divided by 2 billion shares = circa .3p per offload. Does this sound about right?
Also that by end 2026 we are likely to see under 10p total (ie nowhere near 12.5p).
Doing the sums - assuming production doesn't crash crash so offload each 3 months
2023(2) + 2024(4) + 2025(4) + 2026(4) = 14 offload total x .3p = 4.2p
6.02p initial payment + 4.2p = 10.42p
BUT, even if production doesn't crash crash but rather depletes more gradually as we hope, it must lessen to some degree - so knock 1p off (could be more). I expect P6 to be economic beyond 2026 but we will get none of that.
We would need $100 oil for long periods between now & end 2026 to get within striking distance of 12.5p.
There have been 2 good articles published past few days - one Bloomberg saying oil should have $12 supply disruption risk added to current price because of risk greater middle east conflict. Another saying signs of China finally waking up again following strong government measures. problem is - can't copy and paste openable links on here nowadays. I do not see oil staying at $80 - has been minor miracle stayed so low for so long.
HUR are currently involved in NO negotiations to buy any oil or gas production assets which will increase the DCU payments. Nor, if they do enter any, will they likely be completed before end 2026 and producing cashflow
P8 is not being drilled
Ergo, as things stand we are looking at circa 9.5p total. Which will only improve with significant higher oil price
Missing words from part 1... 'in our favour'
Part 2
"I am fighting for financial survival on account of my HUR efforts - which is why until now has not allowed me the time to become au fait with the DCU minutia - but which now makes it imperative that I do. That is why I have reached for a quick handle re how much we can expect going forward, and when.
Magic - thanks for kind words"
i copied my post to advfn. below is the response trail (in 2 parts):-
"rethemagic
23 jan '24 - 21:49 - 37890 of 37893 0 2 0
you have no idea how much work senseman did behind
the scenes during the takeover.on top of that grow
up will you.
simonanthrobus
23 jan '24 - 22:20 - 37891 of 37893 0 0 0
yes senseman did a lot fo wasted work. i told him at the time he was wasting his time.
now all of a sudden he wants folk to do his work for him.
he can **** off
senseman
24 jan '24 - 01:02 - 37892 of 37893 edit
0 1 0
simon
magic is referring to the 2021 95% dilution restructuring attempt which failed (i call it hur 1). at the start of the 3 day high court hearing the shares were 0.6p. had the attempt succeeded, 95% dilution would have rendered the shares worthless, ie: toilet tissue, and bondholders would have owned the company. for 4 months i worked full time to, along with ca, stop the attempt, whilst knowing i was endangering myself financially as covid had killed dead my self employed income stream as an athletics coach, and i knew i should have been developing a new income stream. i did what i did because the old adage 'if not me, then whom?' quickly became apparent. hur 1 was the crucial episode/timespan
you are referring to the successful sale of the company to prax (i call it hur 2). most of us knew fighting it was, bar a miracle, likely to fail. but with so much at stake, and after so much effort in 2021, a small group of us could not sleep at night unless we at least tried. and i would make 2 points:-
1. the dcu payments represent 17% of hur's well p6's profits. prax retain 83%. given our initial 6.02p payment + 6.48p payments are capped at 12.5p max (which we will not achieve before the end 2026 cut-off end date because there is no sign of prax/hur acquiring other production assets to increase profits from which our 17% is derived, or of drilling well p8 to do similar), consider what the share price would now be if hur 2 had failed and a still shareholder owned hur was banking 100% of well p6's profits?. i repeat - just 17% of profits caps us at 12.5p. how far above a 12.5p share price would we be now be if a still shareholder owned hur was banking 100% of p6 profits?
2. no one, bar the 3 of us who as shareholders attended the sanctioning hearing when the judge ok'd the sale, and stood and spoke in the 'barrister's section' against hur's kc & prax's qc, will ever understand how close we came to succeeding. the only thing which failed us was the lack of a shedload of expensive independent expert reports to back up our arguments, in the face of hur & prax's +£1 million quid's worth of legal preparation and 'expert opinion'. the judge (and all attending, including both kc & qc) knew it was a stitch up. but the judge effectively declared that despite misgivings, he had no option but to be guided by the +£1million quid's worth of 'expert opinion' he did have another option, but was not brave enough to exercise it in
I would be most grateful if someone might help me. I need promptly to get a handle on
(i) what offloads we've had so far since Prax (eg month and offload number). And when offloads expected (ie which months) 2024 & 2025.
(ii) how much per DCU payment do we expect, and when will be paid
(iii) how much (approx) per DCU each offload is worth
Been necessarily consumed with other matters so if anyone could help me get a clear picture quickly and and save me a read around would help much. Thanks
Nice of you to ask, Euston. Sadly still mired deep in financial doo doo, will be a long survival fight. Re simple gobby lying- heard nowt as expected
Dive - me thinking same nearly 3 weeks- so either a problem needed sorting, or something proactive to keep prod up/lengthen it. time will tell. i'll go for the later
laser - always appreciated
Thanks dive. it's clear from august figures that annual shutdown was longer than usual, as usual loss is circa only a third of month
HUR production estimate for dec was 6.3mb/d, for jan 5.9mb/d, for feb 5.6mb/d - with the big drop off starting about oct. so of interest will be next 2 offloads and prod figs to see if P6 'levels off' and starts producing better than forecast so longer lifespan
after a splurge in the 90's, brent currently back to HUR's baseline 80 due to continuing china woes. so that's not helping us much at present, save that even at 80 it was shown that HUR's P6 financial projection figures were a manic depressive's fairy story
seasons greetings. and slava ukraina
Nice to see the sensibles chipping in with different data each separately know how to access. keep it up fellas.
HUR projection was for 6.3 mbpd in December 23 and 5.9 mbpd Jan 24 @ $80 oil. so that's our P6 benchmark to see how things are going
HUR's prediction was that 2023 Q4 would see significant drop off ie: more rapid decrease. But techies amongst us opined if oil seeping in from sandstone there may come a point where drop off stabilises even stops as oil continues seeping in from sandstone at continuous rate. In such does occur P6 could continue economically viable significantly longer than predicted. So it's whether drop off stabilises/ slows down which will be interesting.
Thanks Laser.
If tanker 540K, can you opine what production bbp likely been since previous offload? Taking into account annual shutdown which I believe has occurred (tell me if hasn't).
Am I right in thinking that if production holds up (ie rate of decline stays constant), there should be another offload circa Dec 31?
Oil today $91 and not likely to fall much of at all by end of month. And was $91 ish 1st 5 days of month. So looking OK for not too shabby $90+ offload
The end Dec offload will be interesting as the bpp at end Dec will provide a good yardstick to measure P6 rate of decline
There will always be deviant posters. The remedy is effective forum moderation. The problem is that both LSE & ADVFN forum moderators are not fit for purpose.
Hi Euston
Heard nowt. The thing is a disciple of the Lavrov/Putin school of truth
Sadly, will be a good couple of years before I dig myself out of mire. Hit by numerous things one after t'other.
We hit bad-luck jackpot with HUR, never a slice of luck or even rub of green. To escape the crooked noose in 2021, only for CA then being wound down and throwing in the towel for safety - a kick in the teeth we just didn't deserve. CA are paid for managing others' money, not their own, so even if time proves it to be misplaced decision. they won't be crying much.
Nice to see the sensibles looking in occasionally.
Brent today $92-$93
Chortles heard coming from Prax & HUR HQs
Groans from CA HQ
Don't know Hank. The formula's an accounting t urd which left even judge at sanction hearing shaking his head and any variation of it's variation $80 base-rational would take ages to work out. Best just be happy Brent's $90 and wait see announcements. 1st Prax offload was low 80s and next 3 should be 90ish so DCU lights currently all green if they bat straight
Courtesy laserdisc ADVFN:-
06/9/2023
16:33 the original hurricane takeover presentation was previously on their website there was an audio to convince shareholders the best deal was chosen, i don.t think its avail now, i kept a copy of their figures, these figs were shown in presentation at $80 oil . So as long as Lancaster continues production
Returns to Shareholders for 2023 2024 2025 2026 expected
Prax Offer FOR THE
(Lancaster Revenue Only) was 6.29p 1.21p 1.13p 0.35p in addition if prax use the tax losses they obtained from Hur then we should expect more
the more Brent rises Above $80 the better for holders of dcu's as the Lancaster revenue when above $80 should be pure profit , all overheads production costs etc have been covered in above figures when it was calculated at $80
06/9/2023
20:13 next uplift should be around 1st October (subject to maintenance ops)) which will run for 2 weeks i est.
Prax have had proceeds for 1 offload in July, not sure of actual date of DCU interest payment i would have thought by 10th October, then they can incorporate proceeds of proposed October lift. Otherwise we wait for Prax to issue 2023 annual results and see what figs for P6 well have been incorporated in their accounts
Current situation
1) HMRC ruled DCU’s not retainable in ISA, thus taxable. Considerable loss to most PIs. A flawed decision. But what PI can fight HMRC?
2) Tories announce 100+ new N. Sea/ Shetland licences to be issued. Prax to revisit P8? And utilise other Lancaster resources? Tories blinked first - Labour will not reverse licences decision.
3) World oil consumption new high. OPEC+ extends production cutbacks till end 2023. Overdue supply crunch begins to bite. IEA revise POO estimates upwards. Standard Chartered & others forecast $90 Brent 2023 Q3, continuing through 2024 with $100 being visited.
4) P6 continues problem free. Brent today $89-$90. HUR/ Prax P6 standalone figures set to be proved fairy tale by Xmas.
Nimrod
hadn't posted for 6-7 weeks and found it a relief not to have to be trying to achieve something with all chips stacked against. returned because only thing left to do is monitor dcu developments, and monitor HUR p6 production and any other developments for the satisfaction of it being in time proven that HUR sale was a scam sale between & benefitting all interested parties save for PIs. I'll likely only pop in occasionally for a read and occasional post if I feel have anything worth saying.
puerile that after my not posting for 6-7 weeks, that upon posting after such a long absence the usual deviants appear reiterating their usual propaganda drivel that I am HUR obsessed.
my earlier reply to you included a touch of agitation pursuant to your comment perhaps i should leave BoD issues in the past. i assure you none of those scum or issues cause me sleepless nights hence my long silence. pity a couple of others couldn't have zipped it for a couple of months rather than feel compelled to post repeatedly displaying their expertise on nothingnesses
Nimrod - out of respect for your earlier post, i ask simply - have you since that writing taken drugs?
I agree nimrod's logic. exquisitively put, quite beautifully. however HMRC have 'ruled', their logic will be weaker than nimrod's. HMRC decision is wrong, flawed, and was likely made by a jobsworth incompetent negligent (90% of all humans).
today spoke with HL who confirm received HMRC decision to remove from ISA. consequently DCU's which so far have been left in ISA will be automatically transferred to to 'fund & shares account' (ie removed from ISA wrapper) shortly - likely within 7-14 days.
DCU spread has been tight 1.69 - 1.79 with only a million sold. so pi's are not selling (good). and if they do, if they nominate price wanted at say 2.0 or 2.5, likely won't get it.
i will do exactly as nimrod. and if called out, will argue the case right up to HMRC appeals procedure. I detest incompetence, negligence, and legalised theft. my advice to all is to copy and save nimrod's post. if the f eckers want to steal your money, make 'em fight