BELATED GOOD NEWS + PERSPECTIVE (non-nutter variety)7 Jul 2024 17:32
WELCOME NEWS
Prax 27 June announcement to buy a producing asset is welcome, long overdue good news presenting a fighting chance of us seeing 12.5p.p.sh, rather than the projected 9.5p - 10p. 12.5p will remain uncertain for several reasons:-
(i) The transaction requires regulatory agreement, and also will not be completed till Q1 2025 - there being many a slip betwixt cup and lips.
(ii) From HUR sale June 23 to end Q1 2025 will be circa 21 months. End Q1 2025 - end 2026 will be circa 21 months. We will have only 21 months to receive the benefit of 17.5% from the newly purchased asset.
(iii) HANK13's basic calcs showing we will need to achieve circa 3.8p. p.sh from the 21 month 'dual producing asset' period to achieve the 12.5p total illustrates that it will be tight, and that we may still not get there. Also, remember that part of the new producing asset is gas ie: oil equivalent - of which, unlike oil, we currently have no idea of selling price/17.5% profit looks like. It could be more, or less, lucrative than oil sales.
PERSPECTIVE
Whilst Chief Nutter & his bagman scream the usual verbiage they deliberately omit to point out that:-
(a) My good faith comment//opinion was posted 25 Feb. Prax's announcement was 27 June, ie: 4 months later. I don't post in bad faith, and trust my sources. It is wholly possible that Prax & Total commenced talking post 25 Feb to be able to announce a proposed deal 4 months later on 27 June. Planned deal completion not until Q1 2025 suggests a deal in principle speedily agreed, leaving much basic due diligence remaining to be done.
(b) In reiterating my opinion on 30 March I wrote ... '....I doubt a purchase will occur in time to do us any good. I REMAIN HOPEFUL I AM WRONG' (my capitals).
(c) Or is it their obtuse logic that despite my urging Prax to buy a producing asset because I need the money 12.5p will bring, that stating an honest opinion that I doubt such will occur makes me a liar?
OVERVIEW
Prax's proposed purchase of a producing asset which hopefully will see us achieving 12.5p via 17.5% of cargo sales revenue again highlights the betrayal of HUR SHs by management in selling HUR for a song. A deal of course, applauded & supported by the Chief Nutter & his bagman. The forever question for all reasonable ex HUR SHs being..'What would the SH be now if HUR had not been sold. & management had bought a similar producing asset? when:-
1. P6's exceptional production performance & +$80Brent price have already shown HUR/PRAX's P6 standalone profit figures to be a self-serving fairy tale.
2. HUR management could have (as all urged) bought a 2nd producing asset akin to that which Prax are now doing
3. The 2nd producing asset, via it's ability to jointly use the AOKA Mizu, will lower P6's production costs and thus further extend it's commercial life.
4. We would not be limited to receiving only 17.5% of offload sales.
Time will reveal all. Good luck to all. Ignore the nutters