Member Info for senseman

from memory hur prax & ca endorsed p6 standalone end of economic life value figure till end 2026 at projected $80 pb figure was circa 8.1p - 8.3p (can't be bothered to check for exactitude). with all bright skies and butterfly profits to promised land 12.5p dcu target to be met via profit from buying producing assets.

well, october 24 dcu announcement will see 8.1p - 8.3p p6 standalone mickey mouse projection reached, (actual date of reaching with oil in am tanks circa july/august 24.

summary - hur/prax/ca p6 standalone figures already being proven fairy tale, pi projections being proven correct. and no sign of producing asset purchase to reach blue sky 12.5p promise.

as things stand, dcu 12.5p target all dependant on pi argument that it would all come down to that, and p6 production and brent exceeding hur prax ca mickey mouse circa $4 million pile of toilet tissue 'good deal to sell' documents citing p6 standalone end of life 2026 max figure of 8.1p - 8.3p

life is ****, and then we die...)

i recall standing opposite maris after the court rubber stamping the sale and him gloating that...'let's meet in a year and you'll see hur will be fine'. i said - we know it will be, that is our argument, cretin- but you've just persuaded the court the sale is valid because it won't be unless it's sold, and have given shareholders' ownership away to keep in a job - you should be in a prison cell.'

The next few days should be fun...)

Forum ethical guardian senseman, he of objective fairness and wry sense of humour, is watching...)

Watching for those (the known) who post with good intent, and those (the known) who post with malevolent or misrepresentation intent...)

Kever. & broom - you've behaved for a while.....keep up the good work...don't let yourself down...)

Current consensus - sale deal being proven to be sellout bad deal - the now pertinent questions being how well will P6 production hold up...and how much will Brent price help us get anywhere near the promised still rip-off holy grail of DCU assisted max 12.5p target.

Brent current $86.3, with most end Q2 predictions $85-$90

Already by Dec 2023 Hur, Prax & CA supported P6 profit figures shown to be mickey-mouse fairy tales

No Prax purchase of production assets to protect 12.5p target

Ergo - currently all PI arguments being proven correct, and DCU top end 12.5p target dependant on P6 production & Brent price.

Let the games begin...)

My view is that if the issue went to Supreme Court for a ruling, judgement would be that DCUs are part payment for sale of shares purchased and remaining within ISA wrapper till date of sale. This would also be the judgements of Solomon, Einstein and Common Sense. The limitations of HMRC categories and definitions would not override this fundamental ISA principle and thus the SC ruling would be that it was incumbent upon HRMC to amend it's limitations to take account of the higher principle. I expect DCU cash to continue to be paid into ISAs and do not expect HMRC to contest this. I believe HMRC would be aware of the higher principle ultimately winning and, like Corry, them to have bigger fish to pick a fight with.

Latest Brent news - current $85-$86, with last few days Goldman raising end summer 24 forecast to $87 and Standard Charter reiterating it's $94 end summer 24 forecast made months ago.

fand - good to hear from you. nice overview as usual. forum working well - a few posters give specifics - a few provide overview - we all end up wiser with a rounded understanding of where we stand re dcus - teamwork.

re brent price -today 82-83 after opec+ extended cuts (saudis need 90 to balance national spending budget & russia ain't that keen to see price drop). so currently we are looking secure at 80 with 3 month upside to 90.

below copy and paste from advfn re one of our posters masquerading over there as 'bionictroller' (already called out by advfn posters). just so no-one falls for his current 'faux helpful friendly-cuckoo' act on her. he bought at 6-7p and threw weight behind hur sale to prax for pure dcu profit motive. i won't name poster as he will baby-cry to moderator to remove post. his advfn post sentiment says it all:

"29 feb '24 - 20:39 - 37937 of 37939 - bionictroller

senseman

you have been so wrong on many aspects when it comes to hur

you are correct i don't care jack **** about other investors

i only care about my finances

i have many friends in the "shares field" and i am not despised by everyone

stop lying

move on from your bull**** about hur over the years old boy!

Am Hargreaves. They opened a standard share account for all clients, in which the DCUS sit ( think they did whilst they were clarifying with HMRC how DCUS should be treated). But after this, 1st DCU payment was paid into all clients' ISA . So interesting to see if the next payment is paid into ISA.

Nov oil + water total 15.82 bpd . Dec total 15.73 total. Jan total 13.38. As Dive says seems likely a shutdown or deliberate lower flow rate. Anyone any other suggestions? Either way, puts us all on edge. Their projections indicated a sudden fairly dramatic oil production fall ( I couldn't figure out why). I thought that if oil fell dramatically, water would increase dramatically but Jan figures don't say that.

HANK13 - The guys have drawn a clearer picture so you are hopefully wiser. And my irritation has passed so don't worry about that. But unaddressed is your misapprehension which caused it. To prevent reoccurrence - you wrote (I cite to illustrate)

'...i'm complaining because of the constant arguing... usually between 2-4 people who have put in an impressive amount of work (extremely helpful and appreciated), but don't agree with each other...'

Now Corry, Dive. Laser et al (ie all those who opposed sale of HUR & DCU arrangement & regularly input constructive effort to the forum) NEVER argue. Those causing argument were 3 who bought in heavily at 6-7p for the DCU benefit then threw their weight behind the sale of HUR. They have NEVER put in any work supporting the survival of HUR for PI benefit and it's return to bright blue skies, or ever constructively aided this forum. They care not a jot that you have lost serious money because HUR was sold cheap. I would mention names but one of them would immediately complain to the moderator and have the post pulled - operating double standards they dish it out but aren't prepared to take it . They were piqued because I truthfully posted I had been told by the horse's mouth that since HUR's purchase Prax had not engaged in purchase discussions with any other producing company, nor (as of a month ago) were any imminent. My opening up a DCU discussion whereby we all now have a clearer picture that we are unlikely to hit anywhere near 12.5p total (though we all retain hope) irked them considerably - hence I became the lightening rod for their angst. So I calmly defended myself and in doing so irked them further.

I cannot be clearer - you bracketed me with those who actively supported the sale of HUR to Prax and worked against your interests. I hope your misapprehension is now clear. You will see that Dive is this morning cheerily holding one of them to account - I hope his exchange adequately illustrates to you how defence (and argument) is sometimes a necessity to illustrate when dangerous nonsense is posted.

Dive - next offload date will be interesting indicator of how production holds up. December average 6720bpd means last 540K offload took 80.3 days to fill (10 days short of 3 months). A drop to 6000bpd takes 90 days (3 months) to make 540K offload. Ideally we must hope next 2 offloads stay markedly above 6000bpd (a few days short of 90 days), to give scope for following 2 offloads, which will take 90+ days apiece, to occur before 31 Dec 2024. On Brent front Goldman Sachs just increases summer projection to $87pb, with Vitoil (largest oil trader) agreeing and saying sees 2025 similar or increasing to $90 - Vitoil sees peak oil pushed back to 2045 (116 mill bpd) as governments push back against too-rapid change to all green and India demand soars.

HANK13 - it would help the forum if you ceased being lazy & ignorant, wanting to eat your cake and still have it, and giving succour to the nutters. Corryvreckan1 and I worked hard to flesh out how much we are likely to receive from DCUs, when, and the moving variables. Your response, rather than do simple sums from the info provided, was to ask - so how much will be get in 2025 & 2026? But worse was, as soon as expected disparaging attacks from arch DCU (and 'Prax good deal') advocates appeared, so I had to defend myself, you start cherry-picking my posts and tell me to take the disagreement to the playground. Are you so stupid to not to realise that the instigators are those who bought heavily at 6p-6.5p precisely to support the sale of HUR ('the deal') and profit from the DCUs? Thus the one thing they hate are folk like Corry and me analysing the DCUs and showing mounting evidence that the deal was rubbish and as things stand 12.5p total is unlikely to materialise.

The point is simple - stop benefitting from Corry's and my labour, then in the next breath when our conclusions are snidely rubbished so we are obliged to defend ourselves, telling us to shut up! In other words - stop cherry picking - because in a few months time when we are minded to post a DCU progress report, we may not feel minded to provide one! Who the hell are you to milk our labour, and in the next breath arrogantly tell one of us to shut up? Don't you think that we are the best judges of knowing when we need defend ourselves (and the truth?

Broom - you cease snide comment directed at me, named or unnamed - and the need for me to defend myself falls away. Your choice. Don't delude yourself that readers haven't figured out your modus operandi.

Wilco Corry

On your figures (hard to fault) with Brent constant $85 we're looking at another 3.5 - 4.2p, that's with production staying high (4 offloads 23 - discounting recent end Dec/2 Jan one, 4 in 2025, 3 in 2026). Knock off one offload as it won't stay that high, and we're looking at 3.5p from herein in at $85 Brent (far from a given). 6.3p + 3.5p = 9.8p all in. 12.5p it AIN'T. Starting to look like certain folk may be proven right on 2 counts:

i) P6 production outperforming Prax/HUR projections

ii) Deal was crap

It's looking forlorn. We need a year+ of $100 oil and/or Prax/HUR to buy a producing asset. Let's hope Prax have been just having a bit of a kip after the celebrations of skewering us and have actively started hunting for another incompetent BoD to tickle. Like Corry, am not holding my breath

Strikes me $1.9 mill costs per circa $40 - 45 mill offload offload is OTT. 4% for shipping, paperwork & flogging the stuff - would love that job!

Very helpful indeed Corry. Have noted Prax link so can access in future. By the way, copied your substantive figures post and posting name to ADVFN as certain a few guys there will appreciate it. Hope you don't mind.

Yes, the exchange rate ain't helping us and unlikely to do so short/medium term. So to counterbalance, we're reliant on production staying above projections, and Brent price. Brent is currently defying historical logic by not having reacted to middle east tensions, and other pressures. It is also possible that Prax may buy production assets - but for us we only have 2yrs 10 months left to benefit. The problem (for us) is that Prax only buy (see their history) at bargain basement prices - so unless they can do similar now they may prefer keeping cash in the bank and forsake making use of tax credits. Would be deviation from their business model paying fair price for an asset.

Corry - good round explanation many will find useful. Nicely put.

Can you clarify couple of bits for me?

Do we get 17.5%, not 17%?

Do we get 17.5% of offload sale price MINUS costs? If so, in lay terms what are these costs comprised of? I always (likely wrongly) assumed there was no cost deduction. FYI I was told by a man who knows that DCUs are receiving circa 7mill net with Brent $78-$80. Memory escapes me whether he was talking $ or £, and I for instance forgot, till I read your post, the $ to £ conversion which of course knocks us.

FROM ADVFN

2 offloads = 0.7p payment in March

3 offloads = 1p ish

bionictroller

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23/2/2024

16:39 yes my error on posting should read 6720.

As it stands presently we certainly have 2 offloads for the March payment they are

11/7/23 ALTERA THULE to Rotterdam refinary for BP est 533,000

& offload

15th October tanker Altera Wave to the port of Rotterdam.

Offload indicates around 539000 barrels

The December 25th Offload Altera Wind Completed on 2nd January & Estimated to be 524,000 i am not sure how this pans out for payment in March would be nice to have some if not all i dont know how they will treat accounting

laserdisc

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23/2/2024

16:06 laser

thanks for donkey work and explicit directs - worked a treat. have printed off to retain.

unless am blind, to correct for accuracy you no consequence misread dec info, which says 6720 bpd not 6920

but main and crucial for us are 2 good indicators.

i) hur projection nov 23 6700 bpd actual 6870 bpd

dec 23 6300 bpd actual 6720 bpd

this means evidence building production depleting slower than hur/prax projections

meaning offloads more frequent - effectively equates to higher oil price if applied to hur/prax mickey mouse projections

ii) brent $82 with MOST forecasters saying $85-$90 for 2nd half 2024, and 2025

will copy and paste to LSE

laser - your view are we likely to get dcu 1 offload end march/early april (and 3 offloads in dcu payment end sept/early oct? or 2 offloads march/april and 2 in sept/oct?

sense

senseman

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22/2/2024

15:09 i see 6920 per day on this website for Dec, as you say last offload completed 2/1 /24 this next offload is a bit early its up to them when they wish to offload brent rising so they should get a good price all helps dcu holders in due course any offload next week would go into the DCU calculation for 6mth ending June for payment Sept so can/t complain

The DCU payments will be paid biannually in arrears, approximately 90 days after

the end of each 6 month period (those periods ending on 30 June and 31 December each year

jacks1310 Aug '23 - 08:52 - 37750 of 37816

at bottom of screen;

Field Production Data, PPR (WGS84) select: 'Options'

from the drop-down menu select: Filter

A dialogue box will then appear, select: 'Add expression'

In the left-hand drop-down box select: 'Field name (String)'

Then in the third box type in Lancaster and click 'OK'

The data for Lancaster will appear

to download the data;

Select 'Options' again and choose 'Export all to CSV'

laserdisc

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22/2/2024

10:47 Hi Laser

What does this mean?

Last offload was end Dec/completed 1st few days Jan.

Is not next offload not due until towards end March, on fair production?

Why Altera en route to Lancaster now?

Also - for anyone - any updates on P6 production figures from the website they have to publish them on?

senseman

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21/2/2024

16:56 ALTERA THULE

Crucial to whether we hit 12.5p.p.sh max via DCUs is whether Prax/HUR purchase current oil or gas producing assets under the HUR banner. Because profit from such is added to well P6 profits, from which our 17% DCU quantum flows. The promise was that purchase of such assets would be pursued in order that HUR's tax credits could be monetized.

A month ago I I expended several hours difficult grunt work ascertaining from 2 impeccable sources - whose position and interest would be advantaged to report that producing assets were being procured - that to date no such purchases had been attempted, and that no dialogue with any possible producing asset was currently occurring. Since I want and need DCU's to bring us 12.5p.p.sh total at least if not more so than most, it depressed me having to report what I had found. Intelligent readers know that if I report something as fact, it can be relied upon.

My reward for these endeavours was to be called a liar by our resident nutter - water off a ducks back since all identify him as such. Disconcerting however were insinuations from perennial resident lazies (my terminology) esk & broom that the nutter and I are made of the same stuff and, to quote esk...'...both poison to this B while the company was listed and are still at it now.' The 'lazies' never do any grunt work - never have. They mysteriously pop up whenever I post - with factually absurd, snide comment. Do they not realise how daft they sound to intelligent readers when similarly bracketing me and the nutter? Do they take you, the intelligent reader, for a fool?

The failure to purchase producing, profit-generating assets is already grievously damaging our chances of seeing us hit 12.5p.p.sh by the end 2026 cut-off date. We are currently looking at more like 9.5-10.0p total. Perhaps those who swore ('the lazies' included) that 'the deal' was great because we were nigh on certain to get 12.5p total might upon reflection exercise humility!.

Against this massive 'no-buying' disappointment, it has become clear within the grown-up ADVFN discussion Laser refers to - the essence of which I will copy & paste here in a subsequent post - that 2 green shoots of optimism are appearing, ie:

i) Nov 23 production 6870 bpd, against Prax/HUR projection 6700 bpd

Dec 23 production 6720 bpd, against Prax/HUR projection 6300 bpd

Jan 24 product not yet known, against Prax/HUR projection 5900 bpd

The import being more frequent offloads, hence more DCU cash. To illustrate - a 400 bpd increase over projections, equates to Brent price of $85 when compared with $80 projected

ii) Brent current $82, with most analyst projecting $85-$90 2024 Q2 Q3 Q4

The import - Brent at say $85 + $5 pb production increase = $90 pb

$90 x 540,000 = $48,600,000 x 17% = $8,262,000 divided by 2 bill shares = 0.413p p.DCU p.offload

$80 x 540,000 = $43,200,000 x 17% = $7,344,000 divided by 2 bill shares = 0.367p p.DCU p.offload

slava ukraina

senseman

Kever posts, as zero credibility Simon on ADVFN forum, identical nonsense there.

Kever had respected Divecentre's critical post of him pulled by moderators earlier today.

My advice to readers, for what it is worth, is that experience has shown that Kever's statements of fact to the forum have consistently proven to be less reliable than a chocolate teapot

If one calls Prax and speaks with Vlad Langhamer MD Europe & Asia pretending to be an Energy Voice feature writer you will be told that Prax/HUR did due diligence on several UK production companies but found the asking price (ie. the industry reasonable going rate) too high. Prax/HUR have no interest in companies it cannot buy at bargain basement or distressed price. Because it has not been able to identify one it currently has zero interest in any UK company and that position is unlikely to change soon. Prax/HUR will not be drilling P8 because it is not willing to risk the money, and also the NSTA will not lift a finger to help HUR in any way, despite Prax now owning HUR, whilst HUR current management remains, on account of the previous bad blood caused by HUR management.

Be lazy enough to speak with Angelique in IR (if she exists) who sits there all day painting her nails answering the phone and you will receive the standard fob off generic one line answer cited. Put another way - you may as well ask the cat!

Have been told by reliable source that DCU 17% share of each offload @ at $78/80 oil = 7 million (I assume dollars).

Which divided by 2 billion shares = circa .3p per offload. Does this sound about right?

Also that by end 2026 we are likely to see under 10p total (ie nowhere near 12.5p).

Doing the sums - assuming production doesn't crash crash so offload each 3 months

2023(2) + 2024(4) + 2025(4) + 2026(4) = 14 offload total x .3p = 4.2p

6.02p initial payment + 4.2p = 10.42p

BUT, even if production doesn't crash crash but rather depletes more gradually as we hope, it must lessen to some degree - so knock 1p off (could be more). I expect P6 to be economic beyond 2026 but we will get none of that.

We would need $100 oil for long periods between now & end 2026 to get within striking distance of 12.5p.

There have been 2 good articles published past few days - one Bloomberg saying oil should have $12 supply disruption risk added to current price because of risk greater middle east conflict. Another saying signs of China finally waking up again following strong government measures. problem is - can't copy and paste openable links on here nowadays. I do not see oil staying at $80 - has been minor miracle stayed so low for so long.

HUR are currently involved in NO negotiations to buy any oil or gas production assets which will increase the DCU payments. Nor, if they do enter any, will they likely be completed before end 2026 and producing cashflow

P8 is not being drilled

Ergo, as things stand we are looking at circa 9.5p total. Which will only improve with significant higher oil price

Missing words from part 1... 'in our favour'

Part 2

"I am fighting for financial survival on account of my HUR efforts - which is why until now has not allowed me the time to become au fait with the DCU minutia - but which now makes it imperative that I do. That is why I have reached for a quick handle re how much we can expect going forward, and when.

Magic - thanks for kind words"

i copied my post to advfn. below is the response trail (in 2 parts):-

"rethemagic

23 jan '24 - 21:49 - 37890 of 37893 0 2 0

you have no idea how much work senseman did behind

the scenes during the takeover.on top of that grow

up will you.

simonanthrobus

23 jan '24 - 22:20 - 37891 of 37893 0 0 0

yes senseman did a lot fo wasted work. i told him at the time he was wasting his time.

now all of a sudden he wants folk to do his work for him.

he can **** off

senseman

24 jan '24 - 01:02 - 37892 of 37893 edit

0 1 0

simon

magic is referring to the 2021 95% dilution restructuring attempt which failed (i call it hur 1). at the start of the 3 day high court hearing the shares were 0.6p. had the attempt succeeded, 95% dilution would have rendered the shares worthless, ie: toilet tissue, and bondholders would have owned the company. for 4 months i worked full time to, along with ca, stop the attempt, whilst knowing i was endangering myself financially as covid had killed dead my self employed income stream as an athletics coach, and i knew i should have been developing a new income stream. i did what i did because the old adage 'if not me, then whom?' quickly became apparent. hur 1 was the crucial episode/timespan

you are referring to the successful sale of the company to prax (i call it hur 2). most of us knew fighting it was, bar a miracle, likely to fail. but with so much at stake, and after so much effort in 2021, a small group of us could not sleep at night unless we at least tried. and i would make 2 points:-

1. the dcu payments represent 17% of hur's well p6's profits. prax retain 83%. given our initial 6.02p payment + 6.48p payments are capped at 12.5p max (which we will not achieve before the end 2026 cut-off end date because there is no sign of prax/hur acquiring other production assets to increase profits from which our 17% is derived, or of drilling well p8 to do similar), consider what the share price would now be if hur 2 had failed and a still shareholder owned hur was banking 100% of well p6's profits?. i repeat - just 17% of profits caps us at 12.5p. how far above a 12.5p share price would we be now be if a still shareholder owned hur was banking 100% of p6 profits?

2. no one, bar the 3 of us who as shareholders attended the sanctioning hearing when the judge ok'd the sale, and stood and spoke in the 'barrister's section' against hur's kc & prax's qc, will ever understand how close we came to succeeding. the only thing which failed us was the lack of a shedload of expensive independent expert reports to back up our arguments, in the face of hur & prax's +£1 million quid's worth of legal preparation and 'expert opinion'. the judge (and all attending, including both kc & qc) knew it was a stitch up. but the judge effectively declared that despite misgivings, he had no option but to be guided by the +£1million quid's worth of 'expert opinion' he did have another option, but was not brave enough to exercise it in