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I have state before and I restate - if the deal fails, CA will EGM removal of HUR chief execs, and replace with Albion. That is, providing that Albion still want to play ball. I know from a completely reliable independent source that the CA EGM Albion plan was wholly genuine. I told kooba this on ADBFN forum (I am 'filtered' there also now...))). So there are 3 options, rather than just 2. And if Albion do still want to play ball if CA have not peed them off too much, there are likely 2 - accept deal, or refuse deal and have BoD out and Albion in
British - bat kooba straight back.
Your are wholly correct and it is simple to understand.
Even anyone wishing the deal to go through would be mad to vote yes first time round - in refusing to state in the Q & A that the Prax offer was their final offer, he admitted it was not.
Now kooba has filtered me (he hasn't really but now he's stuck with it till a u-turn), he will turn his guns on other posters. Just have think skins and bat him back - other posters will back you up
British
Ignore broomtree. He never posts anything constructive.
Keep posting. Repetition matters and is important - few of us even as adults take things in properly first or even second or third time around. Especially on complex matters such as current. it is not boring to read and I assure you the vast majority of posters appreciate it greatly.
Repetition is even more important when there are suspect poster about - because they rely on their own repetition knowing that if something is said often enough, unless repeatedy contested it is likely to be accepted as fact (see Russian tv currently)
So ignore broomtree - he is a nothing trying to silence you for a reason. In fact, if you do not keep repeating your same message periodically, decent members will be disappointed
Scotty
Well done on behalf of all. It's crucial we find out. Please keep at it and keep us posted. NB. if you get a response with a phone number phone also to get them to confirm - ask them same thing in different ways.
sfi
have copied last few kooba, my and your single post to advfn
if matters they have an accurate picture
kooba fell out with most ADVFN respected posters with his financial and deal is good arguments when the deal was announced - most openly scornful
it may be that if he has a suspect agenda he arrived here because this is a FAR more populous, read and membered forum and perceived he could influence far more here than on ADVFN. i don't know the answer. only that something is not right
NOTE FOR THE RECORD
ADVFN's kooba has refused to explain to the forum why he is suddenly permanently resident here.
He has been shown to be a bare-faced liar
He has filtered senseman
NB
Also, kooba, within our ADVFN message exchanges I informed you (though I knew you already knew) that I copied certain posts of yours I thought of value to LSE)
4TH REQUEST
kooba
you are a bare faced liar
we spoke by phone once and i told you if you advfn posted anything i thought lse may especially appreciated reading, i copied it over
and i have made clear on advfn i occasionally copy valid posts over (and nonsense ones if needed to evidence a point)i
i have never complained about anyone copying a post of mine attributing it to me - i complained about a multiple alias poster plagiarising my post and posting it under his name - as well as plagiarising other posters.
so stop bare-faced lying and kindly answer the courteous question put to you on behalf of multiple members
i have no interest in whether you filter me or not. i have never filtered anyone.
if you post trying to mislead the forum, i will hold you to account, as others are beginning to do
3RD REQUEST
koob
let's clear up your latest clever deflective try-on
1. I have copied posts from advfn to here for years and made no secret of it. and posts from here to advfn. No one has ever complained - and certainly not you
2. others posters have done similar, vice versa
3. both are public forums and NO ONE needs authority from ANYONE to copy and paste any post from A to B.
4. if someone posted on advfn that authority was needed for someone to copy a post from one forum to the other you would be the first to post on advfn that no authority was needed and they were talking nonnsense
5. so you know that your reply is nonsense
6. you are not so thin skinned that you care about what people here think of you, and know well enough that usually least said soonest ignored and forgotten
7. so sorry - your reasons for being suddenly residence here don't stack up and i again ask you to explain - why suddenly permanently on LSE?
koob - you're at it again with the faulty abacus
and it is not i who has made a beano out of costs projections - i cited 6-8 mil without one-offs as a reasonable yardstick and gave no forward projection. i didn't include one offs and natural increase and i'd be quite happy with 9-10 mill pcm 2023 AVERAGE - it's not alarming as your projections were.
my main purpose has always been to illustrate that yours are exagerated - which they significantly are - you picked them from a cornflake packet when you knew HUR had extraordinary one-offs and ran with it - even now your current 10 mill pcm (March) and rapidly rising through 2023 is WAY MORE more than HUR's own 2023 estimated total. as i said - kooba's faulty abacus
people here are slowly being to see you write cleverly but content when analysed is less than kosher.
and yesterday/today have had 4 emails from posters posing the same fair question - why has kooba suddenly, at a crucial time, taken up permanent residence on here? it's a fair question asked previously but not answered. to be clear - no one objects to you being here - they are just curious at to why now? perhaps you could explain why, suddenly now?
Have spent half an hour playing catch-up on Rod's patient analytical posts re fact that despite P6 pumping merrily away, each year with HUR BoD ERCE CPR revision, our 2P reserves are not depleting, ie ERCE at HUR's request are consistently uprating them.
This may be seismic - indicating (not my field at all) that sandstone oil may be seeping into P6 as P6 pressure decreases? - which may mean that P6 flow stabilises at above bpm economic production limit for several years ie 2006 and beyond?
Hats off to Rod for keeping at it - the value implications are clear and all should be aware of them
kooba's making big on the other channel his costs figures are spot on - err NO they are not
he cited current $10 mill pcm, increasing rapidly. below my response on the other channel response. he's 10-20mill out, or 1-1.6 mill pcm out (perhaps more)
so - exagerating costs + citing permanent low oil - it's easy to see how kooba's figures suddenly replicate HUR (& now CA's) fairy tale
"and by the way - your costs were NOT accurate
you cited 10 mill a month (march) and increasing rapidly (let's say to what, 12 mill by end 2023?)
hurr say 2023 AVERAGE 110 mill - 120 mill ie 9.1 mill to 10 mill pcm average
so costs are NOT currently 10 mill a month and rapidly rising
your figures and prediction would have costs at least $130 mill for the year,ie between 10-20 mill out ie between $1 mill - $1.6 mill a month out.
you are good at misleading people with the stroke of a keyboard
ps. we also don't know if costs include EPL levy and/or some FSP costs - hur costs being notoriously opaque and us not having access to accounts
i repeat - $10 mill pcm in march 2023 and increasing rapidly (for another 9 months) is MUCH higher than $110 mill-$120 mill for whole 2023
you're a devious little tinker when you get going, eh? and you can add up as well as i can - so ignorance is no defence"
apology typo - should read 'koob'
kook
stop taking all for fools via sleight of keyboard. after for years being one of the staunchest critics of the veracity of HUR communications, you are now it's biggest advocate. below my recent post re pump - accurately what Maris & Chaffe said at AGM - reported same day or day after by several attendees myself included.
"senseman
RE: Reasonable? Discuss Wed 18:00
I asked Maris the pump questions at the AGM. He put the odds of the backup pump working when stitched on at 75% - 100%, citing the wide range as being industry standard when citing probabilities. He stated there existed 'no good reason' it should not work but since nothing mechanical could ever be cited as 100% if inactive for a while he could not say 100%. That if far different from a 75% probability and much more towards 100% than 75%. Since he always been considered a decent COO (chief operating officer), and it's his field of expertise, in discussion afterwards we all put it at +90% and him opining it would work barring the wholly unforeseen.
From firm memory of when they had to switch it over before, the fault was a topside electrical fault and nothing intrinsically actual pump related - again from firm memory production was only down for a few days - PI's will remember it was considered such a minor matter PIs chastised it being included in the next RNS because it normally would not be and inclusion was viewed as Maris dark mood music keeping the SP down. So it is not a case of the pump itself having an unknow fault which may suddenly reappear.
He also stated the downtime to be 3 weeks total for switchover using ROV and Chafee backed him up on this.
What was openly said by Maris & Chaffe - it was definite with no huffing and puffing - can be relied upon as being more accurate than a protective written email response to the same question being issued by HUR comms"
Rodney
Re ESP - Several AGM attendees, including myself reported on here at the time (was only what - 9 months ago?) Maris & Chafee ESP risk comments. So my memory now (only 9 months later, not 9 years) does not need be relied upon. By the way - it merely repeats what several attendees reported at the time.
Maris's email to kooba 4 months ago Nov 22 was written when the for sale sign was being put up via CA pressure and it was in the BoD's interest to put buyers off by increasing the risk red alerts - expecting if company was sold they would be jobless.
The Maris email is toilet tissue. kooba knows so but is yanking your chain trying to take all for fools. he does that at times
Mariog
I'd write suggesting (could just copy & paste our argument here) to RB of CA, + 3 HUR senior execs. In their minds then to run with it re Prax as a better way or way out of conflict. Unless you've stated it I wouldn't assume it's crossed their minds
mariog - yes i agree
and BoD will press them to up it as don't want to lose jobs
but if getting too messy always a point where Prax will pull out
win win for PIs - better deal or Prax exit
Have been serious musing:-
CA RNS confirms CA still detest HUR chief execs.
The severity of the Irrevocables suggest a fragile deal of forced bedmates uncertain 75% will be achieved.
The speed and extent of a Q & A RNS suggests panic after overwhelming PI outcry at deal.
Which leads me more firmly back to the elephant in the room unaddressed by the Q & A and the question I raise re Q6, ie:
"Q6 What happens if this deal doesn’t get approved? Would you switch to another bidder’s offer,
or go straight into a capital return process?
Relevant missing part 3 of question - IF DEAL FAILS 75% - WILL CA REISSUE EGM REQUEST, REMOVE BoD, INSTALL ALBION AS EARLIER PLANNED?"
I firmly believe that if 75% fails, CA will, rather than leave BoD in place till well 6 economic limit, reissue EGM request, oust chief execs, and install Albion. The question is - will Albion still want in if it perceives it has been messed about. But I am fairly certain that this is what CA will want to do. Since Albion have thick skins, they would likely still play ball.
CA of course will never admit this whilst the deal is in play. But you can bet your life HUR BoD are scared stiff of 75% failing!
So I would build scenario 3 into your thoughts - if 75% fails - BoD out and Albion likely in (in my view).
Opinions?
Apology no time to opine save in note form.
Beware new false prophet joining discredited old false prophet in busy abacus posting blitz
Deal negative reaction FAR greater than expected by Prax, HUR, CA. Damage limitation 44 Q & A document rushed out - speed & length extraordinary.
Quality: toilet tissue on fundamentals: Qs & As cherry picked
SHRIEKING OUT
Q4 How much cash is Hurricane generating now?
Projected $80 Brent. Historic HUR fiction. Today Brent $77. Project $90 Brent (more accurate) - see figures rocket
Deliberate omission - Projections with Brent $85, $90, $95, $100
Q5 Won’t Hurricane have cash equivalent to 12.5p/share by the end of 2024? If so, why should
shareholders not just wait for that cash?
HUR standalone cash return figures - fiction
Q6 What happens if this deal doesn’t get approved? Would you switch to another bidder’s offer,
or go straight into a capital return process?
Relevant missing part 3 of question - IF DEAL FAILS 75% - WILL CA REISSUE EGM REQUEST, REMOVE BoD, INSTALL ALBION AS EARLIER PLANNED?
Q7 Will Prax come back with a higher offer?
Question unanswered. If Prax offer final, would state No. Truthful answer - YES
Q9 Why have the Board, Crystal Amber and Kerogen agreed to an irrevocable support for this
deal – what happens if a better offer is forthcoming?
True answer - Irrevocables signed anticipating vocal 21% PI backlash, attempt to present as nearly done deal
Q12 Why the deferred payments? Why not all the cash at once?
HUR BoD deliberate exagaration of Well 6 catastrophic failure
Q13 Is Prax not just buying Hurricane with its own money?
Question unanswered. Correct answer - YES
Q14 What about a dividend in the ordinary course? Why did management decide to push on with
finalising a deal before returning capital to shareholders?
True answer - if circa 3p had been returned as promised, even more PI's (and Inst Invests) against deal and 75% target made harder.
Q17 Was this the best offer in terms of immediate cash consideration?
Question irrelevant to PIs main value concern
Q18 How much money will management make from the deal? Will any of Management retain
their jobs and will their pay increase?
True answer - (i) A lot, espec seniors (ii) CEO & CFO will (iii) Likely
Q20 Is it a court-led process? Does it require 75 per cent support from voting shareholders?
Fuller answer - (i) If 75% not achieved, Prax higher offer or walk away (ii) If 75%-90%, those voting against cannot be forced to accept deal but can elect shares in private HUR (offerer's nightmare) (iii) 90% needed for compulsory purchase of those voting against. Is there a forum expert to expand upon this?
Q23 How common is this type of deal structure?
Rare. Usually when offerer getting target for below value
Q38 Will we have any voting rights in Prax activities?
Non-sellers between 75%-90% threshold - YES
Q44 Why are Stifel involved with all these share trades announced on the 8.5 RNSs?
NOMAD should not also be b
kooba
Thank you for revealing so much in a singe one line post.
2 days after arriving on the forum, you consider it appropriate to comment that you cannot be ****d to give a respected member of this forum (for all his limitations) a good kicking - essentially (all fine detail aside) because he fails to accept your opinion that HUR well 6 standalone end cash figure would be circa 8p, and thus the proposed deal is good.
If that is your view of a poster with accepted fair intellect, knowledge and ethics, it begs the question - in what regard do you hold other members of this forum? Also, why are we suddenly benefitting so much from your esteemed presence?