Member Info for senseman

with brent mid 80s 1st 5 days of month and last 5 days, and slump only in the middle, we're gonna make shedloads of lolly from this offload...)

WiTech
Yes, of course. Will have been researched. Saw CA SP well below NAV & continuation vote due Nov 21.

Brent solid +$80 - 2022 forecast looking solid
CA expected lose vote - planning for months to maximise SP 1st half 2022 - hence recent buying & eyes on tax position - expect SP to multiply - will be trying for trade buyer
AM supply vessel new 12 month supply contract signed
Production solid ahead of projections
Next offload due soon - bond shortfall reduced to below $30 mill
1616 peeing in wind in desperation - lovely vote of confidence

Let's see where we are end Dec 2021 - all as anticipated a few months ago

Kooba ADVFN post below on CA chat thread this morning, Again, beautifully put. And as CA RNF noted, if 2 USA funds who bought almost 30% CA past 12 months are excluded, AGM resolution 10 passed 75% continuation vote target. With such SH support, CA won't be rushing to sell any asset quickly or for less than proper value:-

''But interesting that over 50% of votes cast were supporting continuation.it is extremely rare to see a shareholder vote that can be won by a minority but that is no doubt why the vultures landed at crystal amber door.The control these shareholders can exercise on the proposals resulting from resolution 10 though is somewhat limited so cannot force through an accelerated monetisation.We must see the proposals , some time guidance already given..if Saba don't like the proposals their only route would be a general meeting to change the management for that they need over 50% which i think they would not achieve , since they are not aligned with other holders it does matter on some holdings how low shares are sold and they positively wouldn't necessarily want strategic sales or takeovers that would boost the price as they would be left short and squeezed. Hope holders think this through if it comes to such a vote''.

'This was totally anticipated and perhaps it means that some holdings may not be held to there full potential but does mean they will accelerate any corporate or strategic solution that maximises their return in a more limited time frame would be my view.'

Kooba's ADVFN post yesterday evening
Perfectly put

There are 2 types of funds - 'evergreen' ie meant to carry on forever, and 'non-evergreen' ie those wherein shareholders can periodically, as set down in fund's articles, vote to monetize assets, remit those funds to shareholders, and restructure or wind up the fund. CA are not an evergreen fund.

The rational being that sale of assets can often realise more than a fund's shareprice. It's a bit like breaking a car up for parts and selling them - the car may be worth £3K, if broken up and sold as parts, it it worth £4K. Funds when 'wound up' in such circumstances, after disbursing funds back to shareholders, often restart under new name with many previous shareholders reinvesting money into the new fund

Saba invested in 25% of CA specifically for that reason only circa 12 months ago - to force an asset sale which would bring them huge profit ie. more than shareholding is worth.

So it is by no means for HUR SHs a bad thing that Saba are currently forcing 'restructure'. It may indeed be that after the sale of 2-3 of CA share assets (at significant profit), Saba may back off and agree CA to continue

One thing is for sure - CA's task now is to increase value of asset SPs as much and as rapidly as possible, to achieve the best poss price in marketplace. There will be no rush. To that end, it may be a good things for HUR SHs looking for SP increase and monetization sooner rather than later - if CA can knock HUR into shape via tax situation, AM extension and other aspects discussed before - and attract a bigger fish industry buyer. Hence CA's prognosis of SP being multibagger from today's level.

I interpret today's SP lowering as usual knee-jerk reaction and would expect fairly rapid rebound.
So, as well as more than usual moving parts, we have another HUGE moving part just chucked into the mix.
Views gentlemen please, views....

apology - should read...'i would expect CA....'

Brent & SP suffering a little via renewed Covid scare. But nothing dramatic, and can't complain about occasional hiccup given wonderful ride past few months.

ditto
i would expect to say a few things re HUR post today's AGM.

i can

perspective, and patience, are the hardest things, seeing wood for the trees
so many moving parts, geopolitical, covid, geology, BoD
crucial currents are (i) brent price (ii) activist CA owning near 30%
consider this
as soon as bond cash secure, whole new vista(s) open(s)
in worst case scenario, if bonds cash secured and well 6 suddenly fails, HUR as shell sale for tax benefits worth what....10p? CA will already be on the case
whatever doomsayers post, and whatever myriad of current uncertainties, HUR currently doing FANTASTIC - i repeat - brent +$80 and activist CA aware of tax situation working to make a killing
moving parts will eventually fall into place
many more current practical green lights than theoretical red lights
but till moving parts fall into place, sleep easy knowing most crucial issue bond burden being addressed at rate of knots only dreamt of 5 months ago

donscot - the old BoD's documented projection (carefully kept away from court scrutiny) was that well 6 production would be economically viable till Feb 2024 - the judge accepted this. re the 2021 CPR I don't believe the veracity of any data given by old BoD to ERCE, for a plethora of logic and fact
so it ain't just wishful thinking

ronny & fang
beautifully expressed. as ronny says, kooba on advfn always write sense

brent price & production will have allowed CA to move on ahead of schedule. RB will be at this now like a rat up a drainpipe. confident that BHs can't spike anything. Waste of time CA getting exited until bond cash safe bar the shouting
at June hearing I valued HUR at $500 mill. Add $500 mill tax benefits, so $1 billion

IMAGINE
monster well 6 continues outperforming (till Feb 2024+) - likely
brent stays above $80 through 2022 - likely
3rd CPR improves 2nd CPR resources in any way - likley
CA find bigger pocket new investor/ farmee/buyer willing to pay for (i) production assets (ii) tax credits (iii) potential

the above is not fantasy, but wholly plausible
senseman

certain is that forefront in CA's mind will be tax credits/corporate solution - huge money
yesterday's RNS - the usual Maris/Chaffe gritted teeth unnecessary moody - thank God cash & production out front & stellar - will have been read riot act by NEDs & CA
only $55 mill short of bond cash and next offload circa 2 weeks
many erudite postings yesterday - shows many peeps reading forum daily but not writing till something valid to say
quite correct resident nutter 1616 - am certifiably dangerous - but only to bad people

You may express any opinion you wish
But if that opinion is garbage. Or in itself abusive. I will call it as it is
Your late fake reasonableness is transparent
It cuts no ice with me. As it will cut no ice with most other forumites. We have seen it all before

rubbish
senseman doesn't play the strawman
reread your posts
you had a pop at CA and the new BoD after 5 months - you haven't a clue how many moving parts the CA and the 3 new NEDs have to contain with in controlling Maris & Chaffe (needed short term) till bond money safe. you whinge on about this and that most if not all is drivel compared to the absolute priority of PoO and production. you cut the new guys no slack at all.
you had a pop at me - on your planet i am happy with 4.9p and am not a proper LTSH. you need sectioning!
you wrote crap and now you're trying to rewrite history by ameliorating it
on yer bike!!!

And my 'having something valid to say' comment this morning that funds and institutions will have an eye on HUR and start putting their money down after seeing next offload safe and sound - stands. I would be happy to bet the farm on it. When that occurs, it will apply upward SP pressure.

Tiger
It ain't my forum so don't try that old pony
I post only when I have something valid to say. Then I shut up for days at a time
You posting I was happy with 4.9p and not a proper LTH shows your pitiful knowledge of both HUR and this forum
You are the embodiment of the maxim that the problem with stupid people is that they are so stupid they do not realise how stupid they are
You are so stupid I bet your mother wished she had a headache the night you were conceived.
Bernstein of CA put his professional reputation and CA's money on the line fighting the attempted court scam which most thought a foregone conclusion
Some LTSHs gave up 2-3 months of their lives fighting to help CA succeed
Some LTSHs bailed out losing hundreds of thousands of pounds. Pensions, life savings, marriages went down the tubes. I bet one or two even topped themselves, or will eventually
So don't tell me...'that's all I'm saying...'
Some people write that the Holocaust was fiction. It's their 'opinion'. An opinion expressed without bothering to read any history. Should they be allowed to express such opinion without being shot down in flames? NO!!
So both do some donkey reading and engage your brain before writing drivel on a public forum.
And get it into your thick deluded head that HUR has done in 5 short months what very few thought possible

Have a nice day

Tiger
Congratulations on officially joining the ranks of the morons & imbeciles
Quote of the week (from Tiger to senseman) - 'and if you're happy with a 4.9p try being a proper LTH'

So senseman is happy with 4.9p and is not a proper LTH, eh?
Opinions please, gentlemen and fellow forumites?

For those who post before bothering to read, research or engage braincell
1. without CA, HUR would now be diluted 95% and in bondholder hands
2. CA average was circa 7p, likely slightly lower now since buying a few more. how currently nest feathering?
3. published forward plan without all bondholder cash secure (bondholders off back) a waste of ink and paper
4. failed court scam end june, ie less than 5 months ago, SP was 0.7p, brent low 60s
5. brent today +$81, huge wodge of discount bonds bought back, production 1200 bpd better than projected, SP 4.9p

I suggest such peeps look up in a dictionary the words......miracle...perspective... patience...history....research

i said from day 1 the attempted court scam would fail
and that we would see $80 as vaccine rolled out and market recovered

smaller funds and institutions will view HUR as a high capital return opportunity and not wait around for the chapter and verse ultra cautious boxes to be ticked and a higher entry SP - 'if it's good enough for Crystal Amber, who have also been increasing holdings.... it's good enough for us..'