RE: I've had to dissuade a family member from going all in to RR today...21 Sep 2020 18:16
Purely previous performance - this thing does not weather controversy well, and it is in a ton of deep sh*t. We see 80, and 50 is very possible, but I do expect a lot of buying under 100 so the scenario for 50 is sky caving in, hundreds of thousands of corona related deaths... I'll stand by 80 quite comfortably (it is also a well-known, large investment bank's target).
I've had to dissuade a family member from going all in to RR today...21 Sep 2020 17:57
He thinks "the company is too big for failure - someone will buy it or bail it out. It's a bargain, in 2 years I'll be rich, etc. etc." The same old story that most impulse traders (gamblers) reiterate. I have told him if he buys today, expect to stomach a minimum 50% loss from here before any real hope of a turn around. Hopefully he listens.
RE: 8 more trading days before results...19 Sep 2020 18:42
Hmm - we will never make perfect trading decisions, so it doesn't matter what if. However, I totally respect you going with your gut and feel that over time, that type of investing/swing-trading will lead to more success than impulse chopping and changing.
8 more trading days before results...19 Sep 2020 17:26
No idea how it will trade - could rally, could sell off a little, could range trade... One thing is more clear - results will be good compared to most of the competition, signalling the way forward for more and more revenue. Once investors see that this shtstorm didn't actually hamper profitability much at all, the price will catapult. You need to be in before Wednesday close.
Most people are swing traders, actually. Investors or venture capitalists probably don't frequent these forums - they make their purchase of shares and literally forget about them for years. The majority of people claim to be investors when the share price goes against them, as it is a) psychologically comforting to say that time is on your side, and b) it takes away the need to act now [be that selling all, half, a third, or even averaging down]. Claiming you are an investor when a share goes against you is just a delusion. Most of us are swing traders (mid-long term) who want a high return within a few weeks or months, knowing that staying in shares longer than that which are stagnant or bleeding, is costing us money in opportunities elsewhere.
RE: This isn't about covid... This is about post-covid...19 Sep 2020 17:00
Sentiment drives share price - look at TESLA, for an example at the other end of the scale to RR. We can discuss the balance sheet all day long, the fundamentals until the cows come home, and even the analysists predictions until we are blue in the face. What matters - is the current price a good enough value compared to all the other companies' shares out there that are competing for investors' funds? In this case, people don't seem to think so. The fact that it has continued to bleed shows me that people are not valuing the psychological levels are strong pivot points - there are no buyers at these levels, it is not flat trading as it was pre-covid, where there was equilibrium, it is bearish. Now, to me, that's alarm bells, and try and find a way out or at least have an insurance strategy ready.
This isn't about covid... This is about post-covid...19 Sep 2020 16:17
Can RR adapt and thrive in the post-covid world? We don't even know what that looks like yet, what changes will need to be made, and whether RR will still carry clout in the next decade +... If you accept that covid has screwed RR, then you must surely accept that any continuation of the pandemic is not good, and RR is vulnerable to other pandemics unless things become clear soon as to how we all move forward and RR's place there. I get that there is a lot of hurt here, but people said it wouldn't go below 250 when at 275, nor below 200 when at 208 - merely weeks later we are here at 180 and people are saying it won't go below 150... Sounds like a gambler who is down to his last few quid saying, but it has to land on black this time!
RE: Until aircrafts are redesigned to prevent transmission of ANY virus...19 Sep 2020 16:02
Agreed - it's incredibly hard to take the hit and drawdown 30+ % - especially because the mind is powerful and plays tricks on us when we're under attack, so we keep telling ourselves "if I sell now, it'll just start to rise, because this IS the bottom" - psychological comforting. Best bet is to be realistic and say right, this is a bad situation, I'm down, so I'll sell half and use that to try and claw back the majority of what I have lost, leave the other half in RR incase it does rebound suddenly.
Until aircrafts are redesigned to prevent transmission of ANY virus...19 Sep 2020 13:44
stocks like RR will continue to trade in a bearish manner... Once Covid is done, investors won't be satisfied that another pandemic 2-3-5 years out couldn't decimate RR again. So, until aircrafts have a redesign to prevent transmission, these stocks will be extremely vulnerable.
How likely is this to go sub 100?18 Sep 2020 18:51
I am considering putting a small position on if it/when it falls sub 150, but is that too soon? If this does indeed break 100, that could be catastrophic. Difficult to see any hard bounce happening when it has suffered so much damange. This is a long and slow rebuild so waiting for confirmation that the bottom has been set (2-3 weeks of higher highs) may be more sensible than just pressing buy and having a punt because it 'seems cheap'. Resist the gambler in you, and be the wealth preserver above all else.
RE: BUY BUY BUY Bull run commences September 21st get your stock in now17 Sep 2020 16:44
It's pre-order, so not actually going to be distributed to the population until stage 3 trials (which take years, usually) are complete. And, these vaccines are short-lived, so it won't be a case of "vaccinate everyone once, virus has no opportunity to spread" - pockets and outbreaks will be happening, so theoretically there will always be pressure on aviation industry until we have achieved herd immunity and have a vaccine.
Not something to buy until at least 6 months out from here imho16 Sep 2020 21:17
Corona directly hammers RR and we are going to have another year of acute consequences so really 6 months might even be too soon, though the bottom may be priced in around then so could also begin to rise then. But not now... Too much danger..could shed another 30%.
We are seeing the government try everything they can to give red bull to the economy, to stop mass panic. We are in the ****, and plenty of businesses have NO MONEY. Go figure, but "everything's ok, we'll just give everyone a payment holiday, it'll be fine..."
If the ATR is anything yo go by, a push for 350 is imminent - within the next 10 trading days of bank. If not, price may just sniff out new highs but consolidate until earnings - but I wouldn't put money on that scenario panning out as the volatility is clearly here.